ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata</a> booked a solid set of 9M2024 numbers but 3Q2024 saw some heightened competition from Telkomsel Lite, pressure from discounted and dual SIMs, as well as local wifi operators.</li>
<li>The company raised data prices in early September but peers did not follow suit. XL retained its subscribers but is seeing pressure on ARPUs as subscribers consume less data.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata</a> is now a major home broadband operator having taken over Link Net's subscribers and should continue to benefit from increasing convergence. Valuations are interesting but competitive pressures remain.</li>
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XL Axiata booked a solid set of 9M2024 numbers but 3Q2024 saw some heightened competition from Telkomsel Lite, pressure from discounted and dual SIMs, as well as local wifi operators.
The company raised data prices in early September but peers did not follow suit. XL retained its subscribers but is seeing pressure on ARPUs as subscribers consume less data.

XL Axiata is now a major home broadband operator having taken over Link Net's subscribers and should continue to benefit from increasing convergence. Valuations are interesting but competitive pressures remain.


XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) - Palpable Pressure in Mobile and Broadband

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>EXCL posted revenue of IDR8.6 tn in 2Q24, up +2.1% QoQ/+4.8% YoY.</li><li>The relatively moderate quarterly top-line growth was primarily due to soft performance in the data &amp; digital services segment (93.1% contribution to total revenue), which grew by +2.5% QoQ/+6.9% YoY.</li><li>On a 6-month basis, revenue stood at IDR17.0 tn (+8.2% YoY) in 1H24, slightly below our/consensus estimates at 48.7%/48.9%, respectively. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

EXCL posted revenue of IDR8.6 tn in 2Q24, up +2.1% QoQ/+4.8% YoY.The relatively moderate quarterly top-line growth was primarily due to soft performance in the data &amp; digital services segment (93.1% contribution to total revenue), which grew by +2.5% QoQ/+6.9% YoY.On a 6-month basis, revenue stood at IDR17.0 tn (+8.2% YoY) in 1H24, slightly below our/consensus estimates at 48.7%/48.9%, respectively. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

EXCL IJ - EXCL’s 1H24 Performance: Keeping the Ball Rolling

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>EXCL’s 1H24 solid NP of Rp1tr (57.5%yoy) was inline, driven by topline growth due to stellar mgmt. execution amid steady EBITDA margin.</li><li>EXCL grew its subscribers (2Q24: +900k net adds) with an upward ARPU trajectory based on strategic allocation of its capex to ex-Java.</li><li>We maintain our BUY rating on EXCL for its growth sustainability with a TP of Rp3,300. Brewing catalysts could unlock significant value.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

EXCL’s 1H24 solid NP of Rp1tr (57.5%yoy) was inline, driven by topline growth due to stellar mgmt. execution amid steady EBITDA margin.EXCL grew its subscribers (2Q24: +900k net adds) with an upward ARPU trajectory based on strategic allocation of its capex to ex-Java.We maintain our BUY rating on EXCL for its growth sustainability with a TP of Rp3,300. Brewing catalysts could unlock significant value.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

XL Axiata - Inline Earnings on Robust Operational; Potential Catalysts Ahead

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>TSEL remains the download speed leader at 26.3 Mbps, narrowing the gap with peers while intensively utilizing its network for FMC synergies.</li><li>Hutch3 leads in upload speed at 11 Mbps and leads in gaming, video and voice experiences due to its stronger focus on latency experience. </li><li>Maintain Overweight as price hikes, justified by improved networks, shall allow for better monetization on the seasonal 4Q24, 1Q25 demand.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

TSEL remains the download speed leader at 26.3 Mbps, narrowing the gap with peers while intensively utilizing its network for FMC synergies.Hutch3 leads in upload speed at 11 Mbps and leads in gaming, video and voice experiences due to its stronger focus on latency experience. Maintain Overweight as price hikes, justified by improved networks, shall allow for better monetization on the seasonal 4Q24, 1Q25 demand.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Telco: OpenSignal 2H24 Results: Narrowing Gaps but Overall Better Network Capacities (OVERWEIGHT)

<ul><li>We believe the planned MergeCo to generate better consumer experience and thus, expect value accretion potentials from the deal.</li><li>We see upside to our current valuation (DCF-based TP of Rp3,3300) from the combined spectrum allocations and tower sites optimization</li><li>Maintain Buy rating. We believe risks on the deals are manageable, as both parties appear committed and with IOH’s merger as a precedent.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We believe the planned MergeCo to generate better consumer experience and thus, expect value accretion potentials from the deal.We see upside to our current valuation (DCF-based TP of Rp3,3300) from the combined spectrum allocations and tower sites optimizationMaintain Buy rating. We believe risks on the deals are manageable, as both parties appear committed and with IOH’s merger as a precedent.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

XL Axiata - Merger Plan to Offer Upside; Reiterate Buy Rating as We See Deal Risks to Be Manageable

Indonesia

PT XL Axiata Tbk provides a wide range of mobile telecommunications services in Indonesia.

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XL Axiata (EXCL IJ)

XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) - Palpable Pressure in Mobile and Broadband

XL Axiata booked a solid set of 9M2024 numbers but 3Q2024 saw some heightened competition from Telkomsel Lite, pressure from discounted and dual...

Angus Mackintosh

EXCL IJ - EXCL’s 1H24 Performance: Keeping the Ball Rolling

The relatively moderate quarterly top-line growth was primarily due to soft performance in the data & digital services segment (93.1% contribution...

MNC Sekuritas

XL Axiata - Inline Earnings on Robust Operational; Potential Catalysts Ahead

EXCL’s 1H24 solid NP of Rp1tr (57.5%yoy) was inline, driven by topline growth due to stellar mgmt. execution amid steady EBITDA margin.

BRI Danareksa Research

Telco: OpenSignal 2H24 Results: Narrowing Gaps but Overall Better Network Capacities (OVERWEIGHT)

TSEL remains the download speed leader at 26.3 Mbps, narrowing the gap with peers while intensively utilizing its network for FMC synergies.

BRI Danareksa Research

XL Axiata - Merger Plan to Offer Upside; Reiterate Buy Rating as We See Deal Risks to Be Manageable

We believe the planned MergeCo to generate better consumer experience and thus, expect value accretion potentials from the deal.

BRI Danareksa Research

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