Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

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Cross Asset Strategy

Fiscal /: China local governments’ fiscal stress may roll over to 2023, think tank warnsContainers /: <a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/2023-03-02/in-depth-how-a-global-shortage-turned-into-a-shipping-container-glut-102003436.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">How a global shortage turned into a shipping container glut</a>Corruption /: Corruption charges filed against former China Merchants Bank president

Fiscal /: China local governments’ fiscal stress may roll over to 2023, think tank warnsContainers /: How a global shortage turned into a shipping container glutCorruption /: Corruption charges filed against former China Merchants Bank president

CX Daily: China Local Governments’ Fiscal Stress May Roll Over to 2023, Think Tank Warns

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We attended Xiaomi’s 2023 Investor Day in Beijing last week. Mgmt. targeted to maintain healthy profitability level while balancing growth.</li><li>The strategic focus remains the smart EV business with launch schedule in 1H24E. Key takeaways included: 1) FY23E smartphone shipment to stay at FY22 level with potential upside on share gain. 2) EV business R&amp;D spending will increase to RMB 7.5- 8.0bn in FY23E (vs RMB 3bn in FY22). 3) AIoT overseas expansion remains key growth driver with more innovative SKUs. 4) Overseas internet revenue reached a new milestone, and expect gaming recovery due to policy relaxation and advertising headwinds due to macro weakness.</li><li>Looking ahead, we believe the worst is likely over for Xiaomi’s earnings decline, and we believe earnings recovery in 1H23E and EV upside will be major positive catalysts for the stock. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We attended Xiaomi’s 2023 Investor Day in Beijing last week. Mgmt. targeted to maintain healthy profitability level while balancing growth.The strategic focus remains the smart EV business with launch schedule in 1H24E. Key takeaways included: 1) FY23E smartphone shipment to stay at FY22 level with potential upside on share gain. 2) EV business R&amp;D spending will increase to RMB 7.5- 8.0bn in FY23E (vs RMB 3bn in FY22). 3) AIoT overseas expansion remains key growth driver with more innovative SKUs. 4) Overseas internet revenue reached a new milestone, and expect gaming recovery due to policy relaxation and advertising headwinds due to macro weakness.Looking ahead, we believe the worst is likely over for Xiaomi’s earnings decline, and we believe earnings recovery in 1H23E and EV upside will be major positive catalysts for the stock. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Xiaomi (1810 HK) – 2023 Investor Day: All eyes on profitability and smart EV business upside

<ul><li>Xiaomi will report 4Q22 results in late March. We estimate 4Q revenue/adj. net profit to decline 23%/70% YoY to RMB65.5bn/1.33bn, mainly driven by global smartphone weakness, higher R&amp;D expense for smart EV and one-off charges for warranty policy change.</li><li>Looking ahead, we believe 4Q22E weakness has been priced in, and smartphone sales is poised to recover sequentially in 1Q23E, driven by China re-opening and improving channel inventory.</li><li>Overall, we believe the worst is likely over for Xiaomi’s earnings decline, and we adjusted our TP to HK$14.73, based on P/E multiple of 24x FY23E P/E (vs prev. 20x FY23E P/E). Maintain BUY. Catalysts include EV progress and market share gain</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Xiaomi will report 4Q22 results in late March. We estimate 4Q revenue/adj. net profit to decline 23%/70% YoY to RMB65.5bn/1.33bn, mainly driven by global smartphone weakness, higher R&amp;D expense for smart EV and one-off charges for warranty policy change.Looking ahead, we believe 4Q22E weakness has been priced in, and smartphone sales is poised to recover sequentially in 1Q23E, driven by China re-opening and improving channel inventory.Overall, we believe the worst is likely over for Xiaomi’s earnings decline, and we adjusted our TP to HK$14.73, based on P/E multiple of 24x FY23E P/E (vs prev. 20x FY23E P/E). Maintain BUY. Catalysts include EV progress and market share gainContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Xiaomi (1810 HK) – 4Q22 Preview: A Challenging Quarter but the Worst Is Likely Over

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>IDC released 4Q22 global smartphone shipment with 18% YoY decline (vs -9.3% in 3Q22), mainly due to weak consumer demand, rising inflation and China COVID-19 impact.</li><li>For 2022, global smartphone shipment fell 11% YoY to 1.21bn unit, marking the lowest annual shipment since 2013.</li><li>By brand, Apple/ Samsung/Xiaomi/Oppo/Vivo declined 15%/16%/26%/16%/19% YoY in 4Q22.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

IDC released 4Q22 global smartphone shipment with 18% YoY decline (vs -9.3% in 3Q22), mainly due to weak consumer demand, rising inflation and China COVID-19 impact.For 2022, global smartphone shipment fell 11% YoY to 1.21bn unit, marking the lowest annual shipment since 2013.By brand, Apple/ Samsung/Xiaomi/Oppo/Vivo declined 15%/16%/26%/16%/19% YoY in 4Q22.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Technology - 4Q22 Global Smartphone Shipment Down 18% YoY

<ul><li>Ant Group / In Depth: The questions hanging over Ant Group</li><li>Davos / China-U.S. ties are more robust than people think, Bloomberg chief says</li><li>Personnel / Harvard-trained former PBOC deputy governor appointed Beijing mayor</li></ul>

Ant Group / In Depth: The questions hanging over Ant GroupDavos / China-U.S. ties are more robust than people think, Bloomberg chief saysPersonnel / Harvard-trained former PBOC deputy governor appointed Beijing mayor

CX Daily: The Questions Hanging Over Ant Group

China

Xiaomi Corporation manufactures communication equipment and parts. The Company produces and sells mobile phones, smart phone software,  set-top boxes, and related accessories. Xiaomi markets its products worldwide.

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Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)

CX Daily: China Local Governments’ Fiscal Stress May Roll Over to 2023, Think Tank Warns

Fiscal /: China local governments’ fiscal stress may roll over to 2023, think tank warns Containers /: How a global shortage turned into a shipping...

Caixin Global

Xiaomi (1810 HK) – 2023 Investor Day: All eyes on profitability and smart EV business upside

We attended Xiaomi’s 2023 Investor Day in Beijing last week. Mgmt. targeted to maintain healthy profitability level while balancing growth.

CMB International

Xiaomi (1810 HK) – 4Q22 Preview: A Challenging Quarter but the Worst Is Likely Over

Xiaomi will report 4Q22 results in late March. We estimate 4Q revenue/adj. net profit to decline 23%/70% YoY to RMB65.5bn/1.33bn

CMB International

China Technology - 4Q22 Global Smartphone Shipment Down 18% YoY

IDC released 4Q22 global smartphone shipment with 18% YoY decline (vs -9.3% in 3Q22), mainly due to weak consumer demand, rising inflation and...

CMB International

CX Daily: The Questions Hanging Over Ant Group

In Depth: The questions hanging over Ant Group. China-U.S. ties are more robust than people think, Bloomberg chief says. Harvard-trained former...

Caixin Global

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