Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

LONGi Green Energy Technology / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 18.7bn of A-shares on stronger average activity. BIG net buying flows on Weds and Thursday.</li>
<li>Looking at the change in the weekly position charts over the last year is striking (easiest in the Sectors table to start). Still.</li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 18.7bn of A-shares on stronger average activity. BIG net buying flows on Weds and Thursday.
Looking at the change in the weekly position charts over the last year is striking (easiest in the Sectors table to start). Still.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 29 Dec 23): Renewables Are a BIG NET BUY This Week

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net sell RMB 2.2bn of A-shares on sharply lighter activity. Quieter all week.</li>
<li>Looking at the change in the weekly position charts over the last year is striking (easiest in the Sectors table to start). Still.</li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net sell RMB 2.2bn of A-shares on sharply lighter activity. Quieter all week.
Looking at the change in the weekly position charts over the last year is striking (easiest in the Sectors table to start). Still.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Dec 23): CATL Is the BIG BUY This Week

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows were both sells, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 100+bp. Liquidation by overseas investors feels finished. </li>
<li>
<strong>Time to go long Hs vs As for the new year at 52wk wide discounts.</strong> 3 Short H/A pairs now switched to long. 3 new pairs long this week. </li>
</ul>


The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows were both sells, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 100+bp. Liquidation by overseas investors feels finished. 

Time to go long Hs vs As for the new year at 52wk wide discounts. 3 Short H/A pairs now switched to long. 3 new pairs long this week. 


A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Dec 23): Time To Go Long Hs Vs As.

Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts to play with.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net sell RMB 18.6bn of A-shares on slightly lighter activity. Friday saw large NORTHBOUND net buys early in the day but ended a net sell.</li>
<li>Looking at the change in the weekly position charts over the last year is striking (easiest in the Sectors table to start). Still. </li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts to play with.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net sell RMB 18.6bn of A-shares on slightly lighter activity. Friday saw large NORTHBOUND net buys early in the day but ended a net sell.
Looking at the change in the weekly position charts over the last year is striking (easiest in the Sectors table to start). Still. 


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Dec 23): Mindray Consistently Bought, Midea Sold

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 15th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$2,746.9 million, led by consumer staples, information technology, and offset by utilities, real estate.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for China Yangtze Power, Mindray, BYD, Wuliangye, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial, Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock, Ping An Insurance.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 15th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$2,746.9 million, led by consumer staples, information technology, and offset by utilities, real estate.
We highlight flows for China Yangtze Power, Mindray, BYD, Wuliangye, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial, Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock, Ping An Insurance.


Northbound Flows (Dec 15th): China Yangtze Power, Mindray, BYD, Wuliangye

China

Luzhou Laojiao Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells spirits products worldwide. The Company also produces glass products, manages hotels, and invests in the real estate business.

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co., Ltd. operates in the winery business. The Company's products include Fen wine, Zhuyeqing, and other white spirits.

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co (600809 CH)

Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Company Ltd. manufactures spirits. The Company's products include white spirits, top-graded gifts liquor, and liquor for daily consumption.

Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited produces and distributes beer products.  The Company markets its products throughout China and around the world under the Tsingtao Beer brand name.

Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited is a company principally engaged in the brewing and distribution of beer. The Company produces, imports, markets, distributes over 50 brands including Budweiser, Stella Artois, Corona, Hoegaarden, Cass, and Harbin. The principal markets include China, South Korea, India and Vietnam.

Anhui Gujing Distillery Co., Ltd. produces and markets distilled spirits and wine.

Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co., Ltd. develops, produces and sells liquor products. The Company operates in China.

Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery JSC Ltd. operates as a wine company. The Company produces and distributes wine, liquor, and other related products.

Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery JS (603369 CH)

Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co., Ltd. operates in the brewery industry.  The Company's products include beer, spring water, beer raw materials, feeds, yeast, and other related products.

Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co, Ltd. (000729 CH)

Chongqing Brewery Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets beer products.  The Company also produces medical preparations and capsules.

Anheuser-Busch InBev NV brews beer.  The Company manufactures ale, lager, stout, and bitter beer.  Anheuser-Busch InBev owns brands that are both nationally and internationally prominent.  The Company has production plants in Europe, the Americas, and Asia.

Diageo plc produces, distills and markets alcoholic beverages.  The Company offers a wide range of branded beverages, including vodkas, whiskeys, tequilas, gins, and beer.

Brown-Forman Corporation manufactures, bottles, imports, exports, and markets a wide variety of alcoholic beverage brands. The Company's products include branded whiskey, vodka, wines, tequila, bourbon, and gin.

Monster Beverage Corporation is a holding company based in Corona, California. The Company, through its consolidated subsidiaries, markets and distributes energy drinks worldwide.

Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc. markets, sells, manufactures, and distributes non-alcoholic beverages.  The Company provides refreshments, including sparkling waters, juices, isotonics, teas, and sodas.  Coca-Cola Enterprises operates internationally.

Constellation Brands, Inc. produces and markets alcoholic beverages in North America, Europe, and Australia, and New Zealand. The Company has a portfolio of brands across the wine, imported beer, and distilled spirits categories. Constellation conducts its business through wholly owned subsidiaries as well as through a variety of joint ventures with various other entities.

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. manufactures and distributes non-alcoholic beverages. The Company offers soft drinks, juices, teas, mixers, water, and other beverages. Keurig Dr Pepper serves customers in the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

Heineken NV produces and distributes beverages internationally. The Company produces beers, spirits, wines, and soft drinks under various brand names.

Heineken Holding NV, through its subsidiary produces and distributes beverages internationally.  The Company produces beers, spirits, wines, and soft drinks under various brand names. Heineken operates through numerous subsidiaries and associated companies worldwide.

Pernod Ricard SA produces wines and spirits.  The Company produces wines, bitters, whiskies, anis-based spirits, liqueurs, cognacs and brandies, and white spirits and rums.  Pernod Ricard markets its products worldwide.

Wuliangye Yibin Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets Wuliangye series of liquors. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also manufactures carbon and lactic acid and has operation in printing and packaging materials businesses.

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Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd A (000858 CH)

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 29 Dec 23): Renewables Are a BIG NET BUY This Week

Very strong "week" of net NORTHBOUND inflows this week, with Weds+Thursday seeing RMB 19bn of inflow on strong volume. Thurs HUGE volume....

Travis Lundy

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Dec 23): CATL Is the BIG BUY This Week

NORTHBOUND was slightly net sell at -2.2bn RMB on the week but notably, the week was flat through Thursday. CATL was the big buy.

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Dec 23): Time To Go Long Hs Vs As.

A/H Premiums reached their highest average (arithmetic - not the HS Index) in a year on Monday. And then turned. Overseas liquidation feels...

Travis Lundy

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Dec 23): Mindray Consistently Bought, Midea Sold

NORTHBOUND Mainland Connect saw significant net outflows. It would have been a lot smaller but Friday mid-day saw a HUGE net buy day become a net...

Travis Lundy

Northbound Flows (Dec 15th): China Yangtze Power, Mindray, BYD, Wuliangye

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for China Yangtze Power, Mindray, BYD, Wuliangye.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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