Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

New and ongoing developments continue to support our bullish outlook. In the “new” column, we have bullish inflections in Treasury yields, the value vs. growth ratio, and broad commodities (Bloomberg Commodity index). These are classic signs that the economy is improving and is historically consistent with prior equity bull markets. Another new development is the market becoming increasingly overbought. As we outline in today's report, being “overbought” is far from a sell signal.  We also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy and Materials: Large-, Mid-, and Small-Cap Domestic Oil &amp; Gas E&amp;P , Chemicals, Diversified, and Specialty Chemicals, Petro/Basic/Commodity.

New and ongoing developments continue to support our bullish outlook. In the “new” column, we have bullish inflections in Treasury yields, the value vs. growth ratio, and broad commodities (Bloomberg Commodity index). These are classic signs that the economy is improving and is historically consistent with prior equity bull markets. Another new development is the market becoming increasingly overbought. As we outline in today's report, being “overbought” is far from a sell signal.  We also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy and Materials: Large-, Mid-, and Small-Cap Domestic Oil &amp; Gas E&amp;P , Chemicals, Diversified, and Specialty Chemicals, Petro/Basic/Commodity.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Value Overtaking Growth; Treasury Yields and Commodities Bottoming

Of the ten items highlighted in last week’s Compass that we would like to see in order to turn more bullish, two have happened -- equal-weighted Energy and UK/European Financials are breaking out. This only serves to add to our already positive outlook as U.S. equities are poised to test all-time highs. We are upgrading equal-weight Energy to market weight. Also in today’s report, we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Technology: Large-, Mid-, and Small-Cap Semiconductors.

Of the ten items highlighted in last week’s Compass that we would like to see in order to turn more bullish, two have happened -- equal-weighted Energy and UK/European Financials are breaking out. This only serves to add to our already positive outlook as U.S. equities are poised to test all-time highs. We are upgrading equal-weight Energy to market weight. Also in today’s report, we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Technology: Large-, Mid-, and Small-Cap Semiconductors.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Equal-Weight Energy Sector; Semis Are Leading Tech

<ul>
<li>
We are downgrading Consumer Discretionary to market weight as retail breakdowns and continued weakness in homebuilders and major autos has led to price and RS uptrend violations for the Sector. Reduce exposure.</li>
<li>
Many major indexes testing support. We cover the S&amp;P 500, Dow, small-caps, PHLX Semiconductor, international developed and emerging markets, which are all at logical support areas. While we expect to see these indexes firm up at current levels based on YTD trends, the potential for breakdowns is not far off.</li>
<li>
Big picture trends. The cyclicals  vs. staples ratio remains elevated and has not broken down. Something similar can be said of the growth vs. value ratio, where the uptrend remains intact.</li>
<li>
In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy, Consumer Staples, Materials, and Utilities.</li>
</ul>



We are downgrading Consumer Discretionary to market weight as retail breakdowns and continued weakness in homebuilders and major autos has led to price and RS uptrend violations for the Sector. Reduce exposure.

Many major indexes testing support. We cover the S&amp;P 500, Dow, small-caps, PHLX Semiconductor, international developed and emerging markets, which are all at logical support areas. While we expect to see these indexes firm up at current levels based on YTD trends, the potential for breakdowns is not far off.

Big picture trends. The cyclicals  vs. staples ratio remains elevated and has not broken down. Something similar can be said of the growth vs. value ratio, where the uptrend remains intact.

In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy, Consumer Staples, Materials, and Utilities.


Yield Surge Tests Equities; Downgrading Discretionary

Key Points:<ul>
<li>Consumer Discretionary retailers and restaurants continue to demonstrate leadership characteristics. Many are breaking to new price and RS highs.</li>
<li>A number of small-cap E&amp;P’s have developed bullish bases and continue to have constructive RS trends.</li>
<li>A few semi supplier stocks are breaking price and RS downtrends.</li>
</ul>

Key Points:
Consumer Discretionary retailers and restaurants continue to demonstrate leadership characteristics. Many are breaking to new price and RS highs.
A number of small-cap E&amp;P’s have developed bullish bases and continue to have constructive RS trends.
A few semi supplier stocks are breaking price and RS downtrends.


Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania

Assistant Professor at The Wharton School, Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania

Dr Arthur van Benthem

Assistant Professor at The Wharton School

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The environmental agenda of President-elect Trump and his transition team is deeply troubling. Plans include dismantling or defunding the Environmental Protection Agency, scrapping the Paris Climate Accord, repealing the Clean Power Plan, relaxing auto emissions standards, increasing coal production, weakening the Endangered Species Act, and on and on. While Trump claims to have an “open mind” on climate, the transition at the EPA is led by Myron Ebell, a science denier who believes that free…

The environmental agenda of President-elect Trump and his transition team is deeply troubling. Plans include dismantling or defunding the Environmental Protection Agency, scrapping the Paris Climate Accord, repealing the Clean Power Plan, relaxing auto emissions standards, increasing coal production, weakening the Endangered Species Act, and on and on. While Trump claims to have an “open mind” on climate, the transition at the EPA is led by Myron Ebell, a science denier who believes that free…

Time for Corporate America to Stand up for the Environment

United States

WPX Energy Inc. is an independent natural gas and oil exploration and production company. The Company is focused on its natural gas reserve base and related NGLs in the Piceance Basin of the Rocky Mountain region, the Bakken Shale oil play in North Dakota, and the Marcellus Shale natural gas play in Pennsylvania.

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Wpx Energy Inc (WPX US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Value Overtaking Growth; Treasury Yields and Commodities Bottoming

New and ongoing developments continue to support our bullish outlook. In the “new” column, we have bullish inflections in Treasury yields, the...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Equal-Weight Energy Sector; Semis Are Leading Tech

Of the ten items highlighted in last week’s Compass that we would like to see in order to turn more bullish, two have happened -- equal-weighted...

Vermilion Research

Yield Surge Tests Equities; Downgrading Discretionary

We are downgrading Consumer Discretionary to market weight as retail breakdowns and continued weakness in homebuilders and major autos has led to...

Vermilion Research

Vital Signs: Actionable U.S. Stocks

Key Points: Consumer Discretionary retailers and restaurants continue to demonstrate leadership characteristics. Many are breaking to new price and...

Vermilion Research

Time for Corporate America to Stand up for the Environment

The environmental agenda of President-elect Trump and his transition team is deeply troubling. Plans include dismantling or defunding the...

Dr Arthur van Benthem

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52-week Range

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