Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Financial Select Sector SPDR F / Technical Analysis

We continue to see a steady flow of risk-on signals that have us moving toward an outright bullish outlook for the broad US equity market. Below we discuss several bullish developments that leads us to believe we are close to exiting the "mixed market environment" that we have referenced since late March.Charts highlighted: XLF, KBE, Copper, US Dollar, IWD, XLY, Bitcoin, S&amp;P 500, APO, LPLA, ARCC, JHG, KKR, ALLY, CACC, OMF, CIT, WD, GATX, LC, CODI, WRLD, ATLC, BCPC, TROX, ASPN, ASIX, LXU, HWKN, MOS, CF, ICL, SQM, UAN, IPI

We continue to see a steady flow of risk-on signals that have us moving toward an outright bullish outlook for the broad US equity market. Below we discuss several bullish developments that leads us to believe we are close to exiting the "mixed market environment" that we have referenced since late March.Charts highlighted: XLF, KBE, Copper, US Dollar, IWD, XLY, Bitcoin, S&amp;P 500, APO, LPLA, ARCC, JHG, KKR, ALLY, CACC, OMF, CIT, WD, GATX, LC, CODI, WRLD, ATLC, BCPC, TROX, ASPN, ASIX, LXU, HWKN, MOS, CF, ICL, SQM, UAN, IPI

Upgrading Financials To Overweight; Downgrading Communications To Market Weight

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We are especially concerned with subprime loans. Many people turn to subprime loans, as they have poor credit history, low FICO scores, limited income, low paying jobs, which may be seasonal, temporary. These people will be hard hit in the shutdown, may even escape some of the macro statistics, especially where not legal residents, workers. But defaults on subprime loans will not escape the lenders. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santander-consumer-usa-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9220:1" rel="noopener">Santander Consumer USA (SC US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/world-acceptance-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8020:1" rel="noopener">World Acceptance (WRLD US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ally-financial-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9683:1" rel="noopener">Ally Financial (ALLY US)</a> are a few companies that stand out. We already know how credit costs can appear from at least two large commercial banks with figures out last night, and we must expect greater deterioration with subprime lenders.

We are especially concerned with subprime loans. Many people turn to subprime loans, as they have poor credit history, low FICO scores, limited income, low paying jobs, which may be seasonal, temporary. These people will be hard hit in the shutdown, may even escape some of the macro statistics, especially where not legal residents, workers. But defaults on subprime loans will not escape the lenders. Santander Consumer USA (SC US), World Acceptance (WRLD US), Ally Financial (ALLY US) are a few companies that stand out. We already know how credit costs can appear from at least two large commercial banks with figures out last night, and we must expect greater deterioration with subprime lenders. 

United States

World Acceptance Corporation operates a small-loan consumer finance business. The Company offers short-term loans, related credit insurance, and ancillary products and services to individuals.  World Acceptance generally serves individuals with limited access to other sources of consumer credit from banks, savings and loans, other consumer finance businesses, and credit cards.

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World Acceptance (WRLD US)

Upgrading Financials To Overweight; Downgrading Communications To Market Weight

We are upgrading Financials to overweight; Financial Sector ETFs (XLF, RYF), banks (KBE, KRE), and insurance stocks (KIE) are all breaking out to...

Vermilion Research

US Banks – Beware of Subprime, Again

We are especially concerned with subprime loans. Many people turn to subprime loans, as they have poor credit history, low FICO scores, limited...

Daniel Tabbush

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