Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Pre-Pandemic, Wizz Air traded on an equity value or market cap €43m-€44m per aircraft. However, it currently trades on only €9m per aircraft using its March 2025 fleet. </li>
<li>​Key issues need to addressed to convince on the “right” to more than double fleet to 500 aircraft.</li>
<li>​We do not share equity issuance concerns – proper inspection illustrates leverage as a margin challenge not a balance sheet challenge.</li>
</ul>


Pre-Pandemic, Wizz Air traded on an equity value or market cap €43m-€44m per aircraft. However, it currently trades on only €9m per aircraft using its March 2025 fleet. 
​Key issues need to addressed to convince on the “right” to more than double fleet to 500 aircraft.
​We do not share equity issuance concerns – proper inspection illustrates leverage as a margin challenge not a balance sheet challenge.


<ul>
<li>Wizz Air's FY24 contained multiple distortions; we disaggregate cash flow dynamics to show an improving picture.</li>
<li>Capacity restraint has been enforced by engine issues, not zero growth in FY25 is producing high single-digit % unit revenue gains.</li>
<li>We see an opportunity for Wizz Air to rise above distortion to earnings from engine issues and compensation by providing incremental cash flow clarity.</li>
</ul>


Wizz Air's FY24 contained multiple distortions; we disaggregate cash flow dynamics to show an improving picture.
Capacity restraint has been enforced by engine issues, not zero growth in FY25 is producing high single-digit % unit revenue gains.
We see an opportunity for Wizz Air to rise above distortion to earnings from engine issues and compensation by providing incremental cash flow clarity.


Wizz Air - Opportunity to Shift Focus from P&L Distortion to Cash Flow Clarity

<ul>
<li>Wizz Air held guidance for FY24 to March 2024, or net income of €350m-€400m, but only due to compensation from Pratt &amp; Whitney.</li>
<li>With no capacity growth in FY25 to March 2025, and costs apparently under control, Wizz Air should be able to drive significant earnings improvements.</li>
<li>Wizz Air seems set to receive over €200m in P&amp;W compensation for aircraft groundings in 4Q24 to March; read across for other airlines operating grounded GTFs.</li>
</ul>


Wizz Air held guidance for FY24 to March 2024, or net income of €350m-€400m, but only due to compensation from Pratt &amp; Whitney.
With no capacity growth in FY25 to March 2025, and costs apparently under control, Wizz Air should be able to drive significant earnings improvements.
Wizz Air seems set to receive over €200m in P&amp;W compensation for aircraft groundings in 4Q24 to March; read across for other airlines operating grounded GTFs.


Wizz Air - Distortion Continues but Conditions Favourable to Pass Key Summer Test

<ul>
<li>Latest RDC fare data deep dive suggests scope for negative surprises at easyJet and Wizz Air - we publish a detailed analysis across booking windows.</li>
<li>​easyJet fare data suggest potential for late-market disappointment, albeit winter prospects more encouraging.</li>
<li>Wizz Air fare data cast doubt on hopes for fare growth.</li>
</ul>


Latest RDC fare data deep dive suggests scope for negative surprises at easyJet and Wizz Air - we publish a detailed analysis across booking windows.
​easyJet fare data suggest potential for late-market disappointment, albeit winter prospects more encouraging.
Wizz Air fare data cast doubt on hopes for fare growth.


European Airlines – Fare Data Suggests Risk to EasyJet/Wizz Peak Summer but Winter More Encouraging

<ul>
<li>Ryanair issued a stark warning on summer pricing today with 1Q25 results and we cut our FY25 net income 31% accordingly.</li>
<li>Our forecasts represent a re-set of unitary economics to pre-pandemic levels and it is difficult to plot improvement unless consolidation benefits or winter surgery help FY26.</li>
<li>Ryanair's cost advantage has widened markedly against peers, justifying a strategy of continued market share focus as competitors face greater challenges.</li>
</ul>


Ryanair issued a stark warning on summer pricing today with 1Q25 results and we cut our FY25 net income 31% accordingly.
Our forecasts represent a re-set of unitary economics to pre-pandemic levels and it is difficult to plot improvement unless consolidation benefits or winter surgery help FY26.
Ryanair's cost advantage has widened markedly against peers, justifying a strategy of continued market share focus as competitors face greater challenges.


Ryanair – FY25 Weakness Suggests a “normalization” and Prompts Structural Industry Questions

Switzerland

Wizz Air Holdings Plc provides passenger and cargo air transportation services. The Company offers flight and connection programs in Central and Eastern Europe.

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Wizz Air Holdings (WIZZ LN)

Wizz Air - Fitness for 500?

Deep dive on Wizz Air's margin challenges and framing the key concerns management needs to address at its upcoming CMD on 1/2 October

Neil Glynn

Wizz Air - Opportunity to Shift Focus from P&L Distortion to Cash Flow Clarity

A deep dive into the complicated dynamics of Wizz Air's cash flow generation as it digests engine issues, compensation, and aircraft sale and...

Neil Glynn

Wizz Air - Distortion Continues but Conditions Favourable to Pass Key Summer Test

Deep dive on true underlying earnings of Wizz Air. Insight into GTF compensation from Pratt & Whitney applicable to impacted airlines

Neil Glynn

European Airlines – Fare Data Suggests Risk to EasyJet/Wizz Peak Summer but Winter More Encouraging

Deep dive on peak summer/early winter fare data pinpoints potential negative surprises to expectations at easyJet and Wizz Air

Neil Glynn

Ryanair – FY25 Weakness Suggests a “normalization” and Prompts Structural Industry Questions

We publish detailed analysis on Ryanair's pessimistic outlook, highlighting that FY25's performance simply reflects a normalization, and...

Neil Glynn

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