Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our aggregate analysis of the 1Q23 earnings season showed a more balanced beat/miss ratio than 4Q22 likely due to already-downgraded forecasts presenting a lower expectations hurdle.</li>
<li>Semiconductor's inventory situation overall appeared to get worse in 1Q23... Excess inventory digestion is still a few quarters away for many semiconductor companies. Margins fell to the last cycle lows.</li>
<li>Hardware showed small signs of overall inventory improvement. Margins fell further but remained pretty high relative to the previous cycle.</li>
</ul>


Our aggregate analysis of the 1Q23 earnings season showed a more balanced beat/miss ratio than 4Q22 likely due to already-downgraded forecasts presenting a lower expectations hurdle.
Semiconductor's inventory situation overall appeared to get worse in 1Q23... Excess inventory digestion is still a few quarters away for many semiconductor companies. Margins fell to the last cycle lows.
Hardware showed small signs of overall inventory improvement. Margins fell further but remained pretty high relative to the previous cycle.


Taiwan Tech: Insights from 1Q23 Earnings Season Into Where We Are in the Cycle

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 9th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD14.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Alchip Tech, Mediatek, Gigabyte Tech, Walsin Lihwa, Yageo, Unimicron Tech, Eva Airways, Nanya Tech.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 9th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD14.8bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Alchip Tech, Mediatek, Gigabyte Tech, Walsin Lihwa, Yageo, Unimicron Tech, Eva Airways, Nanya Tech.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 9th): Alchip Tech, Mediatek, Gigabyte Tech, Walsin Lihwa, Yageo

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the final ADDs/DELs for the TDIV, T50, and T100 Indices for the June 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>Across these three indices there will be 18 changes and 15 of them were in line with expectations.</li>
<li>Our updated flow expectations show that there could be US$1.1bn one-way flow in the June 2023 rebalance.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the final ADDs/DELs for the TDIV, T50, and T100 Indices for the June 2023 Rebalance.
Across these three indices there will be 18 changes and 15 of them were in line with expectations.
Our updated flow expectations show that there could be US$1.1bn one-way flow in the June 2023 rebalance.


Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Jun 23 Rebal: 15/18 as Expected; Some Surprises, US$1.1bn+ One Way

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 2nd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD14.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Wistron, Mediatek, Gigabyte Tech, Lite-On Tech, Yageo, Global Unichip, Chunghwa Telecom, Eva Airways, Nanya Tech.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 2nd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD14.5bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Wistron, Mediatek, Gigabyte Tech, Lite-On Tech, Yageo, Global Unichip, Chunghwa Telecom, Eva Airways, Nanya Tech.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 2nd): Wistron, Mediatek, Gigabyte Tech, Lite-On Tech, Yageo

<ul>
<li>Investors in the U.S. market seem to be having a more bullish outlook towards U.S.-listed semiconductor names than investors are having for Taiwan's semi names so far.</li>
<li>Stocks with highest short interest as % of float -- Some of the top names squeezed... Is HTC next? Also can consider Long Wiwynn vs. Short Wistron.</li>
<li>Highest short ratios -- Asus, UMC, Transcend shorts squeezed... Could WPG be next? Also can consider continuing Long Asus vs. Short Acer.</li>
</ul>


Investors in the U.S. market seem to be having a more bullish outlook towards U.S.-listed semiconductor names than investors are having for Taiwan's semi names so far.
Stocks with highest short interest as % of float -- Some of the top names squeezed... Is HTC next? Also can consider Long Wiwynn vs. Short Wistron.
Highest short ratios -- Asus, UMC, Transcend shorts squeezed... Could WPG be next? Also can consider continuing Long Asus vs. Short Acer.


Taiwan Shorts Monitor: Top Shorted Names Have Been Squeezed; U.S. Semis Outperforming Taiwan

Taiwan

Wistron Corporation manufactures and markets notebook computers, personal computers, and other related information products.

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Wistron Corp (3231 TT)

Taiwan Tech: Insights from 1Q23 Earnings Season Into Where We Are in the Cycle

Semiconductor's inventory situation got worse in 1Q23... Excess inventory digestion is still a few quarters away for many semiconductor companies....

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 9th): Alchip Tech, Mediatek, Gigabyte Tech, Walsin Lihwa, Yageo

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Alchip Tech, Mediatek, Gigabyte Tech, Walsin...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Jun 23 Rebal: 15/18 as Expected; Some Surprises, US$1.1bn+ One Way

The T50 and TDIV standalone changes are significant but the T100 standalone changes are insignificant. The main pick trades suggested in my last...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 2nd): Wistron, Mediatek, Gigabyte Tech, Lite-On Tech, Yageo

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Wistron, Mediatek, Gigabyte Tech, Lite-On Tech,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Shorts Monitor: Top Shorted Names Have Been Squeezed; U.S. Semis Outperforming Taiwan

Investors in the U.S. market seem to be having a more bullish outlook towards U.S.-listed semiconductor names than investors are having for...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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