Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Below we lay out what we believe is a compelling case to add exposure to European/UK Financial stocks at current levels.</li>
<li>The EURO STOXX 50 has been on an absolute tear since we discussed the bullish implications of a break above 4200, and it now breaking above 2+year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>Financials are one of the leading Sectors within Europe/UK, and banks, insurance, and financial services are all attractive. We highlight several of our favorite names to buy at current levels</li>
</ul>


Below we lay out what we believe is a compelling case to add exposure to European/UK Financial stocks at current levels.
The EURO STOXX 50 has been on an absolute tear since we discussed the bullish implications of a break above 4200, and it now breaking above 2+year resistance at 4400-4415.
Financials are one of the leading Sectors within Europe/UK, and banks, insurance, and financial services are all attractive. We highlight several of our favorite names to buy at current levels


Buying Financials in Europe/UK; Buy Highlighted: $EUFN, Allianz, Banco Santander, Wise PLC, and More

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In 1H23 and in the early part of 3Q23, our longs – Visa, Wise and PagSeguro – delivered positive returns; our shorts, DLocal and Kakao Pay, were also modestly successful</li>
<li>Ahead of results to June 2023, we retain card network megacap Visa as a core holding, as well as PagSeguro; we add PayPal and drop Wise from the buy list</li>
<li>We keep our negative view on DLocal and add Affirm, given high take-rates and  premium valuations; we stick with our negative on Kakao Pay due to its lofty multiples</li>
</ul>


In 1H23 and in the early part of 3Q23, our longs – Visa, Wise and PagSeguro – delivered positive returns; our shorts, DLocal and Kakao Pay, were also modestly successful
Ahead of results to June 2023, we retain card network megacap Visa as a core holding, as well as PagSeguro; we add PayPal and drop Wise from the buy list
We keep our negative view on DLocal and add Affirm, given high take-rates and  premium valuations; we stick with our negative on Kakao Pay due to its lofty multiples


Payment Companies – 1H 2023 in Review, Our High Conviction Calls for 2H 2023

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many major indexes are still testing (and holding above) critical supports. This includes MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX</li>
<li>Our overall outlook remains neutral, and we continue to see many attractive buying opportunities, especially out of Japan, India, and a new one -- Brazil.</li>
<li>Buy ideas focus on the Consumer Discretionary and Financials Sectors, with the vast majority of stock recommendations from Japan, India, and Brazil</li>
</ul>


Many major indexes are still testing (and holding above) critical supports. This includes MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX
Our overall outlook remains neutral, and we continue to see many attractive buying opportunities, especially out of Japan, India, and a new one -- Brazil.
Buy ideas focus on the Consumer Discretionary and Financials Sectors, with the vast majority of stock recommendations from Japan, India, and Brazil


Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moneylion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34686:1" rel="noopener">MoneyLion (ML US)</a> , one of the fastest growing fintech companies, went public via SPAC in February and shares were listed on the NYSE in September. The company merged with SPAC Fusion Acquisition at combined enterprise value of ~$2.4 billion, PIPE investors acquired 25 million Class A shares for $10.00 per share and private placement was closed prior to close of business combination. Therefore, MoneyLion has raised $250 million from investors such as BlackRock and private equity firm Apollo Global Management. Citibank, Broadhaven and FT Partners served as financial advisors to MoneyLion while J.P. Morgan Securities acted as financial advisor to Fusion.</p>

MoneyLion (ML US) , one of the fastest growing fintech companies, went public via SPAC in February and shares were listed on the NYSE in September. The company merged with SPAC Fusion Acquisition at combined enterprise value of ~$2.4 billion, PIPE investors acquired 25 million Class A shares for $10.00 per share and private placement was closed prior to close of business combination. Therefore, MoneyLion has raised $250 million from investors such as BlackRock and private equity firm Apollo Global Management. Citibank, Broadhaven and FT Partners served as financial advisors to MoneyLion while J.P. Morgan Securities acted as financial advisor to Fusion.

MoneyLion: The Downside Looks Limited and Valuations Remain Attractive

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/remitly-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11929:1" rel="noopener">Remitly Global (RELY US)</a> , the Seattle-based all-digital financial services provider for immigrants and their families, filed for an IPO and with the most recent S-1/A, fintech unicorn plans to raise ~$285 million at midpoint of the price range at $40/share. This implies IPO valuation of ~$7.6 billion on a fully diluted basis, including options, RSUs and warrants. PayU, a payment technology leader and one of the world’s top investors in fintech, agreed to purchase a number of Remitly shares at IPO price with an aggregate purchase price of up to $25 million in a private placement. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/remitly-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11929:1" rel="noopener">Remitly Global (RELY US)</a>  applied to list common stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol “RELY”. Goldman Sachs and J.P Morgan are leading the IPO.   </p>

Remitly Global (RELY US) , the Seattle-based all-digital financial services provider for immigrants and their families, filed for an IPO and with the most recent S-1/A, fintech unicorn plans to raise ~$285 million at midpoint of the price range at $40/share. This implies IPO valuation of ~$7.6 billion on a fully diluted basis, including options, RSUs and warrants. PayU, a payment technology leader and one of the world’s top investors in fintech, agreed to purchase a number of Remitly shares at IPO price with an aggregate purchase price of up to $25 million in a private placement. Remitly Global (RELY US)  applied to list common stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol “RELY”. Goldman Sachs and J.P Morgan are leading the IPO.   

Remitly IPO. VC-Funded Disruptor Transforming Remittances

United Kingdom

Wise PLC designs and develops software solutions. The Company offers platform to make international multi-currency money transfers. Wise serves customers worldwide.

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Wise PLC (WISE LN)

Buying Financials in Europe/UK; Buy Highlighted: $EUFN, Allianz, Banco Santander, Wise PLC, and More

Europe EURO $STOXX 50 in re-emerging as leadership, and Financials $EUFN are leading the charge within Europe/UK. Banks, insurance, and financial...

Vermilion Research

Payment Companies – 1H 2023 in Review, Our High Conviction Calls for 2H 2023

Our 2H 2023 payments company longs are card network megacap Visa, value play PagSeguro and PayPal with our short calls being DLocal, Kakao Pay and...

Victor Galliano

Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

Europe $STOXX 50, Japan $TOPIX $Nikkei 225, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising $DXY, Global Sovereign Yields Remain Major Headwinds for global...

Vermilion Research

MoneyLion: The Downside Looks Limited and Valuations Remain Attractive

MoneyLion shares look undervalued relative to peers and our 12-month price target of $9.00 per share implies ~50% upside

Andrei Zakharov

Remitly IPO. VC-Funded Disruptor Transforming Remittances

Remitly IPO is a promising investment opportunity to increase exposure to high-growth disruptors transforming global remittance market

Andrei Zakharov

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