Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's flow expectations for the September 2023 index rebalance.</li>
<li>Since the semi-annual rebalance events are in June and December, there will not be any "regular" changes caused by dividend-yield rankings.</li>
<li>However, external factors such as deletion from the selection universe and a shift in tracking AUM assumptions can still trigger US$130mn capping flows in September 2023.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's flow expectations for the September 2023 index rebalance.
Since the semi-annual rebalance events are in June and December, there will not be any "regular" changes caused by dividend-yield rankings.
However, external factors such as deletion from the selection universe and a shift in tracking AUM assumptions can still trigger US$130mn capping flows in September 2023.


Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Sep 23: Potential ~US$130mn Flows Caused by T100 DEL and AUM Change

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the T50 and T100 Indices for the September 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>At present, I see two changes for the T50 index and one change for the T100 index.</li>
<li>The T100 change is an important one as the expected DEL <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wisdom-marine-lines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10001:1" rel="noopener">Wisdom Marine Lines (2637 TT)</a> could also get deleted from the TDIV index.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the T50 and T100 Indices for the September 2023 Rebalance.
At present, I see two changes for the T50 index and one change for the T100 index.
The T100 change is an important one as the expected DEL Wisdom Marine Lines (2637 TT) could also get deleted from the TDIV index.


Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​100 Jun 23: Wisdom Marine Facing TDIV Deletion

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The Yuanta/P-shares Dividend Plus ETF (0056 TT) started to rebalance its holdings on Friday and will continue to do so for the next 4 trading days.</li>
<li>Stocks with buy flows dropped 1.82% on average on Friday while the stocks with sell flows rose 1.03%. On a flow weighted basis, the numbers were -2.01% vs +1.09%.</li>
<li>Given the large volumes at auction and the large moves on stocks, we cannot rule out the possibility that a lot of pre-positions were unwound at the close on Friday.</li>
</ul>


The Yuanta/P-shares Dividend Plus ETF (0056 TT) started to rebalance its holdings on Friday and will continue to do so for the next 4 trading days.
Stocks with buy flows dropped 1.82% on average on Friday while the stocks with sell flows rose 1.03%. On a flow weighted basis, the numbers were -2.01% vs +1.09%.
Given the large volumes at auction and the large moves on stocks, we cannot rule out the possibility that a lot of pre-positions were unwound at the close on Friday.


Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: Day 1 Flows & Performance

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
<strong>Our</strong> <strong>Q3-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market-cap-weighted average price return of 2% and a simple average decline of 0.2%</strong>.</li>
<li>
<strong>Out of the 34 stocks that appeared in our Q3-2021 screen, </strong>15 stocks saw an average share price decline of 11.5%, whilst 19 stocks appreciated on average by 14%. The two biggest declining stock  were down 25% and 19% respectively.</li>
<li><strong>Our Q4 2021 screen, with 38 names (up from 34 seen in Q3 and Q2 2021) delivers an interesting composition this quarter, </strong></li>
<li>
<strong>As in the previous few quarters, we anticipate the possibility of a risk of deteriorating credit metrics during the next few quarters: </strong>Q4 2021’s Altman Z score rests at 1.23, which is just up on Q3 2021’s level of 1.19.</li>
</ul>



Our Q3-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market-cap-weighted average price return of 2% and a simple average decline of 0.2%.

Out of the 34 stocks that appeared in our Q3-2021 screen, 15 stocks saw an average share price decline of 11.5%, whilst 19 stocks appreciated on average by 14%. The two biggest declining stock  were down 25% and 19% respectively.
Our Q4 2021 screen, with 38 names (up from 34 seen in Q3 and Q2 2021) delivers an interesting composition this quarter, 

As in the previous few quarters, we anticipate the possibility of a risk of deteriorating credit metrics during the next few quarters: Q4 2021’s Altman Z score rests at 1.23, which is just up on Q3 2021’s level of 1.19.


Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weimob-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27394:1" rel="noopener">Weimob Inc. (2013 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical (2382 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in the Materials, Communication Services and Industrials sectors, while decreasing in the Consumer Discretionary, Financials and Information Technology sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/showa-denko-k-k" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1496:1" rel="noopener">Showa Denko K.K. (4004 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimizu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8530:1" rel="noopener">Shimizu Corp (1803 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/premier-investment-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19428:1" rel="noopener">Premier Investment (8956 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/screen-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5563:1" rel="noopener">SCREEN Holdings (7735 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/activia-properties-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9498:1" rel="noopener">Activia Properties (3279 JP)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kubota-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12926:1" rel="noopener">Kubota Corp (6326 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16287:1" rel="noopener">ASICS Corp (7936 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nabtesco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13176:1" rel="noopener">Nabtesco Corp (6268 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cocokara-fine-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15447:1" rel="noopener">Cocokara Fine (3098 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pharma-foods-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10530:1" rel="noopener">Pharma Foods International (2929 JP)</a>. Shorts increased in the Information Technology, Real Estate and Materials sectors while decreasing in the Industrials and Consumer Discretionary sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-innovation-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1268:1" rel="noopener">SK Innovation (096770 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-heavy-industries-construction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7389:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Heavy Industries &amp; Construction (034020 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hmm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13494:1" rel="noopener">HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-sdi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:503:1" rel="noopener">Samsung SDI (006400 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electro-mechanics-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:539:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electro Mechanics Co, Ltd. (009150 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oci-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1904:1" rel="noopener">Oci Co Ltd (010060 KS)</a>.</p></div><div><p>In Taiwan, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yang-ming-marine-transport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8502:1" rel="noopener">Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/au-optronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6704:1" rel="noopener">AU Optronics (2409 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yuanta-financial-holding-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:685:1" rel="noopener">Yuanta Financial Holding Co (2885 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/quanta-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2754:1" rel="noopener">Quanta Computer (2382 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6450:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)</a> while shorts covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-steel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:962:1" rel="noopener">China Steel (2002 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wan-hai-lines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14262:1" rel="noopener">Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pegatron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12852:1" rel="noopener">Pegatron Corp (4938 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wisdom-marine-lines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10001:1" rel="noopener">Wisdom Marine Lines (2637 TT)</a>. </p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), JD.com Inc. (9618 HK), Weimob Inc. (2013 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) and Tencent (700 HK) while there was short covering on Meituan (3690 HK), Geely Auto (175 HK), Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Sunny Optical (2382 HK) and Alibaba Group (9988 HK). Shorts increased in the Materials, Communication Services and Industrials sectors, while decreasing in the Consumer Discretionary, Financials and Information Technology sectors.In Japan, stocks increased on Showa Denko K.K. (4004 JP), Shimizu Corp (1803 JP), Premier Investment (8956 JP), SCREEN Holdings (7735 JP) and Activia Properties (3279 JP) while there was short covering on Kubota Corp (6326 JP), ASICS Corp (7936 JP), Nabtesco Corp (6268 JP), Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) and Pharma Foods International (2929 JP). Shorts increased in the Information Technology, Real Estate and Materials sectors while decreasing in the Industrials and Consumer Discretionary sectors.In Korea, shorts increased on SK Innovation (096770 KS), SK Hynix (000660 KS), Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS), Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) and Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) while shorts were covered on Doosan Heavy Industries &amp; Construction (034020 KS), HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS), Samsung SDI (006400 KS), Samsung Electro Mechanics Co, Ltd. (009150 KS) and Oci Co Ltd (010060 KS).In Taiwan, shorts increased on Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT), AU Optronics (2409 TT), Yuanta Financial Holding Co (2885 TT), Quanta Computer (2382 TT) and United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT) while shorts covered on Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT), China Steel (2002 TT), Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT), Pegatron Corp (4938 TT) and Wisdom Marine Lines (2637 TT). 

Asia Shorts: Kuaishou, JD, Geely, Alibaba, Shimizu, Kubota, ASICS, SK Inno, Hynix, Doosan, Yang Ming

Taiwan

Wisdom Marine Lines Company Ltd. transports freight by ship.  The Company operates bulk carriers, loggers, tweendeckers, multipurpose ships, roll-on and roll-offs, and container ships.

Price Gauge
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Wisdom Marine Lines (2637 TT)

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Sep 23: Potential ~US$130mn Flows Caused by T100 DEL and AUM Change

Among the outflow names, the expected DEL Wisdom Marine could have 9.4 days to sell. Apart from that, Farglory Land Development (5522 TT) could...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Jun 23: Wisdom Marine Facing TDIV Deletion

Lite On Tech and Wistron Corp could move from T100 to T50 while Walsin Lihwa and Wan Hai Lines could move from T50 to T100. Aerospace Industrial...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: Day 1 Flows & Performance

The Yuanta/P-shares Dividend Plus ETF (0056 TT) started to rebalance its holdings on Friday and will continue to do so for the next 4 trading days....

Brian Freitas

Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

As we move through into Q1 2022, we expect to see volatility around highly priced & leveraged names. This screen is a key starting point towards...

David Lepper

Asia Shorts: Kuaishou, JD, Geely, Alibaba, Shimizu, Kubota, ASICS, SK Inno, Hynix, Doosan, Yang Ming

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Sep 23: Potential ~US$130mn Flows Caused by T100 DEL and AUM Change

Among the outflow names, the expected DEL Wisdom Marine could have 9.4 days to sell. Apart from that, Farglory Land Development (5522 TT) could...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​100 Jun 23: Wisdom Marine Facing TDIV Deletion

Lite On Tech and Wistron Corp could move from T100 to T50 while Walsin Lihwa and Wan Hai Lines could move from T50 to T100. Aerospace Industrial...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: Day 1 Flows & Performance

The Yuanta/P-shares Dividend Plus ETF (0056 TT) started to rebalance its holdings on Friday and will continue to do so for the next 4 trading days....

Brian Freitas

Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

As we move through into Q1 2022, we expect to see volatility around highly priced & leveraged names. This screen is a key starting point towards...

David Lepper

Asia Shorts: Kuaishou, JD, Geely, Alibaba, Shimizu, Kubota, ASICS, SK Inno, Hynix, Doosan, Yang Ming

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Jun 23: Wisdom Marine Facing TDIV Deletion