Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Wheaton Precious Metals / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Wheaton Precious Metals presented its third quarter 2025 financial and operational results, projecting both accomplishments and challenges on its path forward.</li><li>The streaming company reported record figures in revenue, earnings, and cash flow, catapulting it toward the upper end of its financial objectives for the year and underscoring its focus on long-life, low-cost assets.</li><li>On the positive side, Wheaton's notable performances from key assets such as Salobo and Antamina, as well as the initiation of production at Blackwater and Goose, resulted in the production of 173,000 gold equivalent ounces for the quarter.</li></ul>

Wheaton Precious Metals presented its third quarter 2025 financial and operational results, projecting both accomplishments and challenges on its path forward.The streaming company reported record figures in revenue, earnings, and cash flow, catapulting it toward the upper end of its financial objectives for the year and underscoring its focus on long-life, low-cost assets.On the positive side, Wheaton's notable performances from key assets such as Salobo and Antamina, as well as the initiation of production at Blackwater and Goose, resulted in the production of 173,000 gold equivalent ounces for the quarter.

Wheaton Precious Metals: Why Its Cash-Rich War Chest Could Trigger a Mega Growth Cycle!

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM’s) Q3 adjusted EPS was 6.6% above Edison’s expectations and 1.6% above the market consensus (source: LSEG Data & Analytics, 6 November), with operational results from Sudbury, Blackwater, Marmato, Antamina, Stillwater (for palladium) and Voisey’s Bay ahead of our forecasts. Production also beat our forecasts for Constancia and Penasquito although sales lagged. For the third quarter in succession, net earnings achieved a record level. The main reason for the outperformance was a positive variance in Salobo’s sales. Whereas we had expected sales to undershoot production by 25.0% (or 18,624oz), in the event they only undershot by 16.8% (11,229oz). As a result, gold inventories rose by 3,852oz less than expected to only 3.31 months of production (cf 3.45 months forecast). Aggregate costs were also well controlled ( US$4.1m better than our forecasts). Together with a lower tax charge, these drove a US$17.5m (6.6%) positive variance in underlying net earnings and contributed to the upgrading of our FY25 adjusted net EPS forecast by 4.0c/share (1.5%). Note that, at current metals prices, our FY26 EPS estimate more than doubles from that shown below to US$3.70/share.

Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM’s) Q3 adjusted EPS was 6.6% above Edison’s expectations and 1.6% above the market consensus (source: LSEG Data & Analytics, 6 November), with operational results from Sudbury, Blackwater, Marmato, Antamina, Stillwater (for palladium) and Voisey’s Bay ahead of our forecasts. Production also beat our forecasts for Constancia and Penasquito although sales lagged. For the third quarter in succession, net earnings achieved a record level. The main reason for the outperformance was a positive variance in Salobo’s sales. Whereas we had expected sales to undershoot production by 25.0% (or 18,624oz), in the event they only undershot by 16.8% (11,229oz). As a result, gold inventories rose by 3,852oz less than expected to only 3.31 months of production (cf 3.45 months forecast). Aggregate costs were also well controlled ( US$4.1m better than our forecasts). Together with a lower tax charge, these drove a US$17.5m (6.6%) positive variance in underlying net earnings and contributed to the upgrading of our FY25 adjusted net EPS forecast by 4.0c/share (1.5%). Note that, at current metals prices, our FY26 EPS estimate more than doubles from that shown below to US$3.70/share.

Wheaton Precious Metals — Maiden US$1bn annual net earnings beckon

Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM’s) Q325 financial results are scheduled for release on 6 November. Ahead of the announcement however, we already have production numbers from Salobo, Sudbury, Voisey’s Bay, San Dimas, Zinkgruvan, Neves-Corvo, Blackwater and Penasquito. We have updated our forecasts to reflect this data. After two quarters in which sales have outperformed production and inventory has been drawn down, we suspect that this trend will now reverse in Q3 before balance is restored in Q4. While we forecast that production will be modestly higher in Q3 therefore, we forecast that gold equivalent sales will be 14.1% lower. Consequently, we have reduced our Q3 EPS forecast by 5.7c/share. However, we have increased our FY25 EPS forecast by 8.9c/share to reflect recent moves in precious metals prices. Note that our FY26 adjusted EPS estimate (below) is based on very conservative gold and silver prices of US$2,105/oz and US$24.33/oz, respectively. At prevailing metals prices, it rises by 142.2% from the US$1.54/share shown to US$3.73/share (see Exhibit 17).

Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM’s) Q325 financial results are scheduled for release on 6 November. Ahead of the announcement however, we already have production numbers from Salobo, Sudbury, Voisey’s Bay, San Dimas, Zinkgruvan, Neves-Corvo, Blackwater and Penasquito. We have updated our forecasts to reflect this data. After two quarters in which sales have outperformed production and inventory has been drawn down, we suspect that this trend will now reverse in Q3 before balance is restored in Q4. While we forecast that production will be modestly higher in Q3 therefore, we forecast that gold equivalent sales will be 14.1% lower. Consequently, we have reduced our Q3 EPS forecast by 5.7c/share. However, we have increased our FY25 EPS forecast by 8.9c/share to reflect recent moves in precious metals prices. Note that our FY26 adjusted EPS estimate (below) is based on very conservative gold and silver prices of US$2,105/oz and US$24.33/oz, respectively. At prevailing metals prices, it rises by 142.2% from the US$1.54/share shown to US$3.73/share (see Exhibit 17).

Wheaton Precious Metals — Hunting Actaeon

On 10 September, Wheaton (WPM) announced that it had committed to contribute to Carcetti Capital’s financing of its acquisition of the Hemlo mine from Barrick in the form of a US$400m gold stream (c 39% of Carcetti’s total funding requirement). At the current gold price of US$3,650/oz, we calculate a 9.2% pre-tax internal rate of return (IRR) to Wheaton from its investment in Hemlo. At Edison’s more conservative, longer-term gold prices, we forecast that Hemlo will contribute an average of 0.9c/share to Wheaton’s EPS per annum, over the official 14-year life of the mine, and that it will contribute an average of 7.2c to Wheaton’s operational cash flow per share. At the same time, we have increased our Q325 EPS estimate by 4.4% and our FY25 EPS estimate by 5.7% to reflect recent strength in precious metals prices. Note that, at these levels, our FY26 EPS estimate rises from the US$1.44/share shown below to US$3.15/share.

On 10 September, Wheaton (WPM) announced that it had committed to contribute to Carcetti Capital’s financing of its acquisition of the Hemlo mine from Barrick in the form of a US$400m gold stream (c 39% of Carcetti’s total funding requirement). At the current gold price of US$3,650/oz, we calculate a 9.2% pre-tax internal rate of return (IRR) to Wheaton from its investment in Hemlo. At Edison’s more conservative, longer-term gold prices, we forecast that Hemlo will contribute an average of 0.9c/share to Wheaton’s EPS per annum, over the official 14-year life of the mine, and that it will contribute an average of 7.2c to Wheaton’s operational cash flow per share. At the same time, we have increased our Q325 EPS estimate by 4.4% and our FY25 EPS estimate by 5.7% to reflect recent strength in precious metals prices. Note that, at these levels, our FY26 EPS estimate rises from the US$1.44/share shown below to US$3.15/share.

Wheaton Precious Metals — Attaining 1Moz AuE production pa by FY30

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 5 additions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in December. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> is a surprise add (as are some of the others).</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 15.2% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$8.8bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>The MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index has just passed its earlier highs, but a lot of the adds have broken out and are trading much higher than their prior highs.</li>
</ul>


There are 5 additions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in December. Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a surprise add (as are some of the others).
Estimated one-way turnover is 15.2% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$8.8bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index has just passed its earlier highs, but a lot of the adds have broken out and are trading much higher than their prior highs.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added

Brazil

Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. operates as a precious metals streaming company. The Company focuses on gold and silver projects. Wheaton Precious Metals serves customers worldwide.

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Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM CN)

Wheaton Precious Metals: Why Its Cash-Rich War Chest Could Trigger a Mega Growth Cycle!

Wheaton Precious Metals presented its third quarter 2025 financial and operational results, projecting both accomplishments and challenges on its...

Baptista Research

Wheaton Precious Metals — Maiden US$1bn annual net earnings beckon

Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM’s) Q3 adjusted EPS was 6.6% above Edison’s expectations and 1.6% above the market consensus (source: LSEG Data &...

Edison Investment Research

Wheaton Precious Metals — Hunting Actaeon

Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM’s) Q325 financial results are scheduled for release on 6 November. Ahead of the announcement however, we already have...

Edison Investment Research

Wheaton Precious Metals — Attaining 1Moz AuE production pa by FY30

On 10 September, Wheaton (WPM) announced that it had committed to contribute to Carcetti Capital’s financing of its acquisition of the Hemlo mine...

Edison Investment Research

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added

The flows have changed following the non-inclusion of Zijin Gold in the index. With cornerstones locked up till end-March, Zijin Gold will not be...

Brian Freitas

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