Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>It is still difficult to digest the optimism in some commentary regarding true underlying financial health. </p><p>Adding to the regime of onerous banking regulations is an environment of economic and financial fear. The decline in U.S. 10 year bond yields this year alone is testimony to this. Negative interest rates in Japan, EU, and Sweden, suggests the growth outlook is terrible.</p><p>Remember when the world was waiting for rising U.S. rates and normalization of higher rates globally? This was when the world’s overly liquid banks would start to print money; earning an immediately higher spread on their excess deposits. </p><p><strong>It is not happening. It is more like the opposite now.</strong></p>

It is still difficult to digest the optimism in some commentary regarding true underlying financial health. Adding to the regime of onerous banking regulations is an environment of economic and financial fear. The decline in U.S. 10 year bond yields this year alone is testimony to this. Negative interest rates in Japan, EU, and Sweden, suggests the growth outlook is terrible.Remember when the world was waiting for rising U.S. rates and normalization of higher rates globally? This was when the world’s overly liquid banks would start to print money; earning an immediately higher spread on their excess deposits. It is not happening. It is more like the opposite now.

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

<p>All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence.  Bottom fishers will be tentative and choppy bearish markets are likely to persist.  Financials (led by Europe) are leading the falls in equities; regulatory pressure implemented in the wake of the global and Eurozone financial crises and litigation and compliance costs since the LIBOR and FX fixing scandals are coming home to roost and creating an echo of the financial stress that undermined global economic confidence in the crises of the last decade.  EUR is whippy as investors cope with Euro-centric financial sector stress, but this is only likely to embolden the ECB to adopt more aggressive policy easing measures.  It is possible they emulate the BoJ and adopt a tiered cash rate policy resplendent with a much lower more negative marginal cash rate.  The outcome would be much lower yields across the EUR curve and a weaker EUR (we much prefer to sell EUR against Gold; as discussed in our previous two reports). Australia has proven resilient to global economic and financial stress, but its banks are being infected by global pressures, and we see a significant risk that RBA scope to cut rates turns into an obligation before long.  We see a fallback in the AUD (again we prefer to sell against gold).</p>

All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence.  Bottom fishers will be tentative and choppy bearish markets are likely to persist.  Financials (led by Europe) are leading the falls in equities; regulatory pressure implemented in the wake of the global and Eurozone financial crises and litigation and compliance costs since the LIBOR and FX fixing scandals are coming home to roost and creating an echo of the financial stress that undermined global economic confidence in the crises of the last decade.  EUR is whippy as investors cope with Euro-centric financial sector stress, but this is only likely to embolden the ECB to adopt more aggressive policy easing measures.  It is possible they emulate the BoJ and adopt a tiered cash rate policy resplendent with a much lower more negative marginal cash rate.  The outcome would be much lower yields across the EUR curve and a weaker EUR (we much prefer to sell EUR against Gold; as discussed in our previous two reports). Australia has proven resilient to global economic and financial stress, but its banks are being infected by global pressures, and we see a significant risk that RBA scope to cut rates turns into an obligation before long.  We see a fallback in the AUD (again we prefer to sell against gold).

AmpGFX - Dead-Cats and Body Blows, Financial Crisis Echo, RBA Scope to Become Obligation

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<div>
<strong>Our S&amp;P buy limit at 1,875 was spot on per our dip/rally call, and we are seeing gains back to the touted 1,910-20 area where we are exiting this ST long</strong> ahead of the NFP Friday. A weak NFP number would boost the S&amp;P marginally into ideal short territory at 1,938 with risk to 1,950. Weaker sector links still look ugly with a focus on shorting small caps and financials. Our macro bear view stands - Short this rally for a slide to 1,720 and ultimately 1,620 by the summer.</div><div>Much like the BOJ induced…</div>


Our S&amp;P buy limit at 1,875 was spot on per our dip/rally call, and we are seeing gains back to the touted 1,910-20 area where we are exiting this ST long ahead of the NFP Friday. A weak NFP number would boost the S&amp;P marginally into ideal short territory at 1,938 with risk to 1,950. Weaker sector links still look ugly with a focus on shorting small caps and financials. Our macro bear view stands - Short this rally for a slide to 1,720 and ultimately 1,620 by the summer.Much like the BOJ induced…

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Equity Bottom-Up

Australia & New Zealand Bankin / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Australian and New Zealand Banking Group’s, or ANZ, new CEO Shayne Elliot wasted no time in overhauling senior management and highlighting subtle change in strategy.</p><p>We expect a big restructuring charge announced with first half fiscal 2016 results in early May as well as an increase in loan loss provisioning for some of its more vulnerable sector exposures. ANZ may write-down the value of its Asian partnership investments and capitalised software.</p><p><em>Analyst: David Ellis</em></p>

Australian and New Zealand Banking Group’s, or ANZ, new CEO Shayne Elliot wasted no time in overhauling senior management and highlighting subtle change in strategy.We expect a big restructuring charge announced with first half fiscal 2016 results in early May as well as an increase in loan loss provisioning for some of its more vulnerable sector exposures. ANZ may write-down the value of its Asian partnership investments and capitalised software.Analyst: David Ellis

<p>Our sell out of Asian longs yesterday was timely. S&amp;P top is in place at 1,940 (futures) after hitting our base case level of 1,938 with risk to 1,950. We failed to short the S&amp;P but now calibrating levels on a bounce to short financials, small caps and the S&amp;P. The fact that we broke below 1,910 implies a top is in place. Weak sector links telegraphing further weakness. Our macro bear targets remains at S&amp;P 1,720 (tactical rise) and then 1,620.</p><div>S&amp;P 1,875 is a level to stage a recovery back to…</div>

Our sell out of Asian longs yesterday was timely. S&amp;P top is in place at 1,940 (futures) after hitting our base case level of 1,938 with risk to 1,950. We failed to short the S&amp;P but now calibrating levels on a bounce to short financials, small caps and the S&amp;P. The fact that we broke below 1,910 implies a top is in place. Weak sector links telegraphing further weakness. Our macro bear targets remains at S&amp;P 1,720 (tactical rise) and then 1,620.S&amp;P 1,875 is a level to stage a recovery back to…

Australia

Westpac Banking Corporation offers general and savings banking services.  The Company provides investment portfolio management and advice, insurance services,  consumer finance, and money market services among other services.  Westpac Banking Corp. serves individuals, businesses, and corporations worldwide.

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Westpac Banking (WBC AU)

Asian Banks – Risks Remain Plentiful

It is still difficult to digest the optimism in some commentary regarding true underlying financial health. Adding to the regime of onerous banking...

Daniel Tabbush

AmpGFX - Dead-Cats and Body Blows, Financial Crisis Echo, RBA Scope to Become Obligation

All major equities are again below the lows in 2015 after a dead-cat bounce sending another body-blow to global investor confidence. Bottom...

Greg Gibbs

S&P Cap, DXY in Line, WTI and Copper

Our S&P buy limit at 1,875 was spot on per our dip/rally call, and we are seeing gains back to the touted 1,910-20 area where we are exiting...

Thomas Schroeder

Short Term Earnings Risks Increase

Australian and New Zealand Banking Group’s, or ANZ, new CEO Shayne Elliot wasted no time in overhauling senior management and highlighting subtle...

Morningstar, Inc.

Increasing Shorts on Strength

Our sell out of Asian longs yesterday was timely. S&P top is in place at 1,940 (futures) after hitting our base case level of 1,938 with risk...

Thomas Schroeder

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