Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Australia domestic credit growth is now at -2.2% YoY in January 2024, the worst figure since August 2021. </li>
<li>There are negative implications for the delta of net interest income for Australia's banks as loan growth moves negative.</li>
<li>Risk of rising credit costs is higher, not only from worsening insolvencies with corporates, but also with rising mortgage bad loans. </li>
</ul>


Australia domestic credit growth is now at -2.2% YoY in January 2024, the worst figure since August 2021. 
There are negative implications for the delta of net interest income for Australia's banks as loan growth moves negative.
Risk of rising credit costs is higher, not only from worsening insolvencies with corporates, but also with rising mortgage bad loans. 


Australia Banks - Negative Loan Growth Reaches August 2021 Levels

Equity Bottom-Up

National Australia Bank / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NAB reported its 3Q24 results with slightly lower profit, but major divergence inside the figures </li>
<li>The bank shows a staggering decline in credit costs in 3Q24, which means the results were flattered</li>
<li>This is despite a very sharp rise in bad loans in major segments, corporate and residential mortgages, up around 50% YoY annualized in 3Q24</li>
</ul>


NAB reported its 3Q24 results with slightly lower profit, but major divergence inside the figures 
The bank shows a staggering decline in credit costs in 3Q24, which means the results were flattered
This is despite a very sharp rise in bad loans in major segments, corporate and residential mortgages, up around 50% YoY annualized in 3Q24


NAB - Profit Slightly Down in 3Q, Credit Costs Collapsed, but Bad Loans Are Rising Significantly

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zip-co-ltd-3708706d-4978-4e29-acbc-d9702b971da9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29126:1" rel="noopener">Zip (ZIP AU)</a> plans to raise around US$145m in order to repay its outstanding debt.</li>
<li>The company has undertaken a number of deals in the past and has a mixed track record.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Zip (ZIP AU) plans to raise around US$145m in order to repay its outstanding debt.
The company has undertaken a number of deals in the past and has a mixed track record.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


ZIP Placement - Worth a Small Punt, at Best

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 28th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Macquarie, Westpac, CSL, Pro Medicus, Yancoal Australi, Telstra, Insurance Australia.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 28th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.5bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Macquarie, Westpac, CSL, Pro Medicus, Yancoal Australi, Telstra, Insurance Australia.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 28th): Macquarie, Westpac, CSL, Pro Medicus, Yancoal Australia

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 21st (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Telstra, BHP, Aristocrat Leisu, Sonic Healthcare, Treasury Wine, Fortescue, Westpac, NAB, ANZ.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 21st (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.1bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Telstra, BHP, Aristocrat Leisu, Sonic Healthcare, Treasury Wine, Fortescue, Westpac, NAB, ANZ.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 21st): Telstra, BHP, Aristocrat Leisure, Sonic Healthcare

Australia

Westpac Banking Corporation offers general and savings banking services.  The Company provides investment portfolio management and advice, insurance services,  consumer finance, and money market services among other services.  Westpac Banking Corp. serves individuals, businesses, and corporations worldwide.

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Westpac Banking (WBC AU)

Australia Banks - Negative Loan Growth Reaches August 2021 Levels

With NAB results and peers, it is worthwhile keeping in mind this HFD on insolvencies, which has been for some time, pointing to worsening credit...

Daniel Tabbush

NAB - Profit Slightly Down in 3Q, Credit Costs Collapsed, but Bad Loans Are Rising Significantly

NAB reported its 3Q24 results with profit down slightly, but the figure is exaggerated with sharply lower credit costs, despite much higher bad...

Daniel Tabbush

ZIP Placement - Worth a Small Punt, at Best

Zip (ZIP AU) plans to raise around US$145m in order to repay its outstanding debt. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal...

Sumeet Singh

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 28th): Macquarie, Westpac, CSL, Pro Medicus, Yancoal Australia

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Macquarie, Westpac, CSL, Pro Medicus, Yancoal...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 21st): Telstra, BHP, Aristocrat Leisure, Sonic Healthcare

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Telstra, BHP, Aristocrat Leisu, Sonic Healthcare,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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