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David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

CSI Deteriorates in May On Policy Uncertainty <ul>
<li>In May the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a level of 114.2, below the key threshold of 116 separating rationally pessimistic consumers from panicking consumers. </li>
<li>
Deterioration in the CSI during May stems from growing uncertainty over the future path of China’s monetary policy. As the urgent need for deleveraging has become apparent a mysterious article published by an anonymous 'authoritative figure' in the People's Daily…</li>
</ul>

CSI Deteriorates in May On Policy Uncertainty 
In May the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a level of 114.2, below the key threshold of 116 separating rationally pessimistic consumers from panicking consumers. 

Deterioration in the CSI during May stems from growing uncertainty over the future path of China’s monetary policy. As the urgent need for deleveraging has become apparent a mysterious article published by an anonymous 'authoritative figure' in the People's Daily…


China Consumer Sentiment Snapshot - Urgent Need for Deleveraging Becomes Apparent

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Despite the promise of online retailing and its rapid growth, there are worrying signs that point to either a coming slowdown, data discrepancies, or unsustainable shifts in consumer behavior.  Though it is too soon to say for sure, what is happening, the warning signs are there.

Despite the promise of online retailing and its rapid growth, there are worrying signs that point to either a coming slowdown, data discrepancies, or unsustainable shifts in consumer behavior.  Though it is too soon to say for sure, what is happening, the warning signs are there.

<ol><li>Given the available data, we believe it indicates that Chinese consumer growth remains positive but significantly weaker than headline official numbers indicate.</li><li>Large retailers appear to be suffering near zero growth across a variety of products.</li><li>Online retailing is still growing rapidly but its rate of growth is slowing and remains responsible for only 10.6% of spending.</li><li>Due to the weakness in large retailers and strong but small market share of online retailers, this leaves only small and medium size retailers as driving official retail sales numbers. We find this a dubious conclusion.</li><li>The combined retail sales and physical output of consumer product data implies that retail and consumer spending is growing much closer to the 3-6% range than the official 11% retail sales growth.</li><li>Related services like transport and hotel is showing significant weakness that is more reflective of an overall weak retail and services sector.</li></ol>

Given the available data, we believe it indicates that Chinese consumer growth remains positive but significantly weaker than headline official numbers indicate.Large retailers appear to be suffering near zero growth across a variety of products.Online retailing is still growing rapidly but its rate of growth is slowing and remains responsible for only 10.6% of spending.Due to the weakness in large retailers and strong but small market share of online retailers, this leaves only small and medium size retailers as driving official retail sales numbers. We find this a dubious conclusion.The combined retail sales and physical output of consumer product data implies that retail and consumer spending is growing much closer to the 3-6% range than the official 11% retail sales growth.Related services like transport and hotel is showing significant weakness that is more reflective of an overall weak retail and services sector.

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

We pointed it out in our previous notes <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/are-korean-tourism-stocks-inbound-bottoming" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:2664">Are Korean Tourism Stocks (Inbound) Bottoming?</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2016-year-of-visit-to-korea" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:2422">2016 - “Year of Visit to Korea”</a> that the major inbound tourism stocks including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14940" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14940">Paradise Co Ltd</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/107" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:107">Hotel Shilla Co Ltd</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16341" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16341">Grand Korea Leisure Co Ltd</a> may be bottoming out and ready to turn the corner. The major driving force is the inbound Chinese tourists and their willingness to spend in Korea.The major Korean department stores had an outstanding same store sales results in this February, which is…

We pointed it out in our previous notes Are Korean Tourism Stocks (Inbound) Bottoming? and 2016 - “Year of Visit to Korea” that the major inbound tourism stocks including Paradise Co Ltd , Hotel Shilla Co Ltd , and Grand Korea Leisure Co Ltd may be bottoming out and ready to turn the corner. The major driving force is the inbound Chinese tourists and their willingness to spend in Korea.The major Korean department stores had an outstanding same store sales results in this February, which is…

"Korea Grand Sale" Driving Up Department Store Sales

Global Macro Strategy

Callum Henderson

Macroeconomics

* The CNY is becoming a basket currency and greater basket currency flexibility is likely this year* The PBoC monetary policy report stated that two-way flexibility of the CNY will increase* This appears to be in line with calls from former PBoC advisers for a basket currency with wide bands* Reduced Fed hike expectations take some pressure off CNY vs. USD, allowing it to weaken vs. EUR, JPY* CNY basket flexibility and band widening is likely by Q3, before SDR implementation in OctoberIn my…

* The CNY is becoming a basket currency and greater basket currency flexibility is likely this year* The PBoC monetary policy report stated that two-way flexibility of the CNY will increase* This appears to be in line with calls from former PBoC advisers for a basket currency with wide bands* Reduced Fed hike expectations take some pressure off CNY vs. USD, allowing it to weaken vs. EUR, JPY* CNY basket flexibility and band widening is likely by Q3, before SDR implementation in OctoberIn my…

China

Wenfeng Great World Chain Development Corporation operates department store, supermarket and household appliances retail chain.  The Company operates in Jiangsu Province and Shanghai City.

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Wenfeng Great World Chain A (601010 CH)

China Consumer Sentiment Snapshot - Urgent Need for Deleveraging Becomes Apparent

CSI Deteriorates in May On Policy Uncertainty In May the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a level of 114.2, below the key...

David Riedel

The State of Online Retailing in China

Despite the promise of online retailing and its rapid growth, there are worrying signs that point to either a coming slowdown, data discrepancies,...

Christopher Balding

Retail and Consumer Activity in China

Given the available data, we believe it indicates that Chinese consumer growth remains positive but significantly weaker than headline official...

Christopher Balding

"Korea Grand Sale" Driving Up Department Store Sales

We pointed it out in our previous notes Are Korean Tourism Stocks (Inbound) Bottoming? and 2016 - “Year of Visit to Korea” that the major inbound...

Douglas Kim

CNY Band Widening Likely by Q3

* The CNY is becoming a basket currency and greater basket currency flexibility is likely this year* The PBoC monetary policy report stated that...

Callum Henderson

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