New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>New Zealand: House sales and prices tracking down; Migration still negative and mortgage lending continues to decline; Residential rent growth slowing</li>
<li>Australia: New home sales continue to slide; Lending approvals tick lower; Construction headwinds showing in 2Q22</li>
<li>US housing data mixed: Housing permits tumble, starts up; Existing home sales tick lower, new sales jump</li>
</ul>


New Zealand: House sales and prices tracking down; Migration still negative and mortgage lending continues to decline; Residential rent growth slowing
Australia: New home sales continue to slide; Lending approvals tick lower; Construction headwinds showing in 2Q22
US housing data mixed: Housing permits tumble, starts up; Existing home sales tick lower, new sales jump


<ul><li>New Zealand: Resi slowdown drags down construction forecasts</li><li>Australia: Australian outlook comments robust despite softening residential</li><li>International: Millions of empty flats threatens to plunge China’s troubled property market further into crisis</li></ul>

New Zealand: Resi slowdown drags down construction forecastsAustralia: Australian outlook comments robust despite softening residentialInternational: Millions of empty flats threatens to plunge China’s troubled property market further into crisis

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Strong FY22 driven by price and margin gains: VSL's FY22 EBITDA was up +82% on the prior year to NZ$243m and adjusted NPAT +119% to NZ$124m</li><li>Ulrich synergies outlined with potential for more: VSL's initial assessment of the Ullrich synergies is NZ$10m+ with benefits to become more tangible from 1H24</li><li>Guidance for a flat year largely reflecting margin pressure: VSL guided to FY23 EBITDA and NPAT of NZ$215–235m and NZ$93–107m</li></ul>

Strong FY22 driven by price and margin gains: VSL's FY22 EBITDA was up +82% on the prior year to NZ$243m and adjusted NPAT +119% to NZ$124mUlrich synergies outlined with potential for more: VSL's initial assessment of the Ullrich synergies is NZ$10m+ with benefits to become more tangible from 1H24Guidance for a flat year largely reflecting margin pressure: VSL guided to FY23 EBITDA and NPAT of NZ$215–235m and NZ$93–107m

Vulcan Steel: FY22 Result — Steel on Top

<ul><li>Vulcan Steel has reported a very strong debut result with FY22 EBITDA (before significant items) and NPAT doubling to NZ$243m and NZ$181m respectively</li><li>VSL expects some normalisation in industry margins in FY23 driven by lower global steel prices</li><li>We expect minimal changes to operating forecasts on the back of FY23 guidance but higher interest rates will weigh on NPAT</li></ul>

Vulcan Steel has reported a very strong debut result with FY22 EBITDA (before significant items) and NPAT doubling to NZ$243m and NZ$181m respectivelyVSL expects some normalisation in industry margins in FY23 driven by lower global steel pricesWe expect minimal changes to operating forecasts on the back of FY23 guidance but higher interest rates will weigh on NPAT

Vulcan Steel: FY22 Result – First Impressions

<ul><li>June quarter ready-mix concrete (RMC) production suggests that while NZ construction activity remains at robust levels nationally some regions have rolled over the peak</li><li>Solid 2Q22 volumes but some regions rolling over the peak</li><li>RMC production is the first NZ construction indicator for 2Q CY22, and including cement and aggregates a significant exposure for Fletcher Building (FBU).</li></ul>

June quarter ready-mix concrete (RMC) production suggests that while NZ construction activity remains at robust levels nationally some regions have rolled over the peakSolid 2Q22 volumes but some regions rolling over the peakRMC production is the first NZ construction indicator for 2Q CY22, and including cement and aggregates a significant exposure for Fletcher Building (FBU).

Building Sector: Ready-Mix Concrete — First Cracks Appearing?

New Zealand

Vulcan Steel Ltd operates as a metals distributing and processing company. The Company offers stainless and engineering steel products. Vulcan Steel serves customers in Australia and New Zealand.

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Vulcan Steel Limited (VSL NZ)

Building Weekly (28-Sep-2022)

New Zealand: House sales and prices tracking down; Migration still negative and mortgage lending continues to decline; Residential rent growth slowing

Forsyth Barr

Building Weekly (26-Aug-2022)

Construction spending forecast to fall -18% to NZ$42bn by 2027, primarily driven by forecast resi construction down -36% (c.-NZ$11bn) while non...

Forsyth Barr

Vulcan Steel: FY22 Result — Steel on Top

As expected Vulcan Steel (VSL) reported a strong FY22 driven by rising prices and margins as well as solid cost control

Forsyth Barr

Vulcan Steel: FY22 Result – First Impressions

As expected Vulcan Steel has reported a very strong debut result with FY22 EBITDA (before significant items) and NPAT doubling to NZ$243m and...

Forsyth Barr

Building Sector: Ready-Mix Concrete — First Cracks Appearing?

June quarter ready-mix concrete (RMC) production suggests that while NZ construction activity remains at robust levels nationally some regions have...

Forsyth Barr

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