Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.</li>
<li>Historically, these Rebalance events have had significant volume and ADV impact and they generally involve large cap names. </li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2023.</li>
</ul>


The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.
Historically, these Rebalance events have had significant volume and ADV impact and they generally involve large cap names. 
In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2023.


Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: Ferrari RACEs into the Lead; US$1.2bn Potential Inflow

<ul>
<li>The EURO STX 50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.</li>
<li>Historically, these Rebalance events have had significant volume and ADV impact and they generally involve large cap names. </li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2023.</li>
</ul>


The EURO STX 50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.
Historically, these Rebalance events have had significant volume and ADV impact and they generally involve large cap names. 
In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2023.


Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: Vonovia Deletion Seems Likely; US$1.2bn Flow for Wolters Kluwer

<ul>
<li>The EURO STX 50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.</li>
<li>Historically, these Rebalance events have had significant volume impact and they generally involve large cap names. </li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2023.</li>
</ul>


The EURO STX 50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.
Historically, these Rebalance events have had significant volume impact and they generally involve large cap names. 
In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2023.


Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23:  Eurozone’s Annual Big Impact Rebal Trades; US$1.1bn+ for ADDs

<ul>
<li>The EURO STOXX 50 Index is one of the most highly-watched indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/euro-stoxx-50-quiddity-leaderboard-for-sep-22-eurozone-s-annual-big-impact-rebal-trades" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:72736" rel="noopener">Euro Stoxx 50 Quiddity Leaderboard for Sep 22: Eurozone's Annual Big Impact Rebal Trades</a>, we looked at the Potential ADDs/DELs and the historical performance of Rebalance Events. </li>
<li>With less than a week left until the Reference date, we take a final look at the rankings in this insight.</li>
</ul>


The EURO STOXX 50 Index is one of the most highly-watched indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.
In Euro Stoxx 50 Quiddity Leaderboard for Sep 22: Eurozone's Annual Big Impact Rebal Trades, we looked at the Potential ADDs/DELs and the historical performance of Rebalance Events. 
With less than a week left until the Reference date, we take a final look at the rankings in this insight.


EURO STOXX 50 Quiddity Leaderboard: Two Potential ADDs with ~US$1bn Flows Each

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

As of 24 September, the total number of shares tendered, plus the Deutsche Wohnen Shares directly held by the Vonovia, plus the Deutsche Wohnen Shares in respect of which Vonovia was directly and unconditionally entitled to an immediate transfer, and plus the financial instruments relating to the acquisition of Deutsche Wohnen shares directly held by Vonovia amounts to 181,711,364 Deutsche Wohnen shares. This corresponds to approximately 50.49% of the share capital and the voting rights of Deutsche Wohnen.
Vonovia began this round in mid-June, when it launched its first friendly bid to win its competitor. At the time, the cash offer made was €52/share, in addition to the right to cash in the expected dividend of €1.03/share. However, this attempt did not prosper as it just reached a 47.6% support, below the 50% minimum acceptance threshold.
In its second offer this summer, Vonovia raised to €53/share to woo Deutsche Wohnen shareholders. Thus, Vonovia valued its rival at €19.1 bn vs. €18 bn at the beginning of summer.
The resulting merger of the two German real estate companies will result in a conglomerate owning over 500,000 homes on the European market, some 350,000 from Vonovia divided between Germany, Austria and Sweden; and 160,000 from Deutsche Wohnen, which concentrates a good part of its properties in Berlin. The joint valuation of their portfolios reaches €89,000 mn.
Berlin votes in favor of expropriating 240,000 homes in the hands of large companies. Although the vote is non-binding and seems unlikely to materialise, at least via expropriations, pressure is mounting on the Berlin local government to control rents. I anticipate that Berlin local government will continue to buy homes from large owners, but at market prices. The latest purchase was of 14,750 homes from both Vonovia and Deutsche Wohnen for €2,460 mn.
Deutsche Wohnen reported good operational results: FFO I increased by 2% and EPRA NTA increased by 1.4%. Market rents up 6% in Berlin, 35.6% gains on privatisations. The offer price is above the EPRA NTA per share (€52.67/share) as reported on 30 June.
Third time around Vonovia has secured the acquisition. Acceptance period ends on 4 October. Gross spread as of 28 September is 0.03%. The deal should close by mid-October. Recommendation is tender.

As of 24 September, the total number of shares tendered, plus the Deutsche Wohnen Shares directly held by the Vonovia, plus the Deutsche Wohnen Shares in respect of which Vonovia was directly and unconditionally entitled to an immediate transfer, and plus the financial instruments relating to the acquisition of Deutsche Wohnen shares directly held by Vonovia amounts to 181,711,364 Deutsche Wohnen shares. This corresponds to approximately 50.49% of the share capital and the voting rights of Deutsche Wohnen.
Vonovia began this round in mid-June, when it launched its first friendly bid to win its competitor. At the time, the cash offer made was €52/share, in addition to the right to cash in the expected dividend of €1.03/share. However, this attempt did not prosper as it just reached a 47.6% support, below the 50% minimum acceptance threshold.
In its second offer this summer, Vonovia raised to €53/share to woo Deutsche Wohnen shareholders. Thus, Vonovia valued its rival at €19.1 bn vs. €18 bn at the beginning of summer.
The resulting merger of the two German real estate companies will result in a conglomerate owning over 500,000 homes on the European market, some 350,000 from Vonovia divided between Germany, Austria and Sweden; and 160,000 from Deutsche Wohnen, which concentrates a good part of its properties in Berlin. The joint valuation of their portfolios reaches €89,000 mn.
Berlin votes in favor of expropriating 240,000 homes in the hands of large companies. Although the vote is non-binding and seems unlikely to materialise, at least via expropriations, pressure is mounting on the Berlin local government to control rents. I anticipate that Berlin local government will continue to buy homes from large owners, but at market prices. The latest purchase was of 14,750 homes from both Vonovia and Deutsche Wohnen for €2,460 mn.
Deutsche Wohnen reported good operational results: FFO I increased by 2% and EPRA NTA increased by 1.4%. Market rents up 6% in Berlin, 35.6% gains on privatisations. The offer price is above the EPRA NTA per share (€52.67/share) as reported on 30 June.
Third time around Vonovia has secured the acquisition. Acceptance period ends on 4 October. Gross spread as of 28 September is 0.03%. The deal should close by mid-October. Recommendation is tender.

Vonovia Has Already 50.49% Of​Deutsche Wohnen

Germany

Vonovia SE provides real estate services. The Company manages, leases, and sells apartments. Vonovia offers residential real estate to customers throughout Germany.

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Vonovia (VNA GR)

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: Ferrari RACEs into the Lead; US$1.2bn Potential Inflow

Vonovia seems like a high-conviction DEL and Ferrari could replace Vonovia in the ES50 index. There could be 16.1 days to sell in Vonovia and 11.6...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: Vonovia Deletion Seems Likely; US$1.2bn Flow for Wolters Kluwer

There are 17.6 and 16.2 days to trade for the Expected ADD Wolters Kluwer and Expected DEL Vonovia respectively. This is roughly 11%-12% of the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: Eurozone’s Annual Big Impact Rebal Trades; US$1.1bn+ for ADDs

Vonovia SE (VNA GR) is a high-conviction DEL and Wolters Kluwer Nv (WKL NA) but Ferrari NV (RACE IM) are leading the race to take Vonovia's slot in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

EURO STOXX 50 Quiddity Leaderboard: Two Potential ADDs with ~US$1bn Flows Each

I expect 2 ADDs with ~US$1bn inflows each and 2 DELs with ~US$0.5bn in outflows each. While flows are significant, the LONG ADDs-SHORT DELs Trade...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Vonovia Has Already 50.49% OfDeutsche Wohnen

Third time around Vonovia has secured the acquisition. Acceptance period ends on 4 October. Gross spread as of 28 September is 0.03%. The deal...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: Ferrari RACEs into the Lead; US$1.2bn Potential Inflow

Vonovia seems like a high-conviction DEL and Ferrari could replace Vonovia in the ES50 index. There could be 16.1 days to sell in Vonovia and 11.6...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: Vonovia Deletion Seems Likely; US$1.2bn Flow for Wolters Kluwer

There are 17.6 and 16.2 days to trade for the Expected ADD Wolters Kluwer and Expected DEL Vonovia respectively. This is roughly 11%-12% of the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: Eurozone’s Annual Big Impact Rebal Trades; US$1.1bn+ for ADDs

Vonovia SE (VNA GR) is a high-conviction DEL and Wolters Kluwer Nv (WKL NA) but Ferrari NV (RACE IM) are leading the race to take Vonovia's slot in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

EURO STOXX 50 Quiddity Leaderboard: Two Potential ADDs with ~US$1bn Flows Each

I expect 2 ADDs with ~US$1bn inflows each and 2 DELs with ~US$0.5bn in outflows each. While flows are significant, the LONG ADDs-SHORT DELs Trade...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Vonovia Has Already 50.49% Of​Deutsche Wohnen

Third time around Vonovia has secured the acquisition. Acceptance period ends on 4 October. Gross spread as of 28 September is 0.03%. The deal...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Vonovia Has Already 50.49% OfDeutsche Wohnen