Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.</li>
<li>We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.</li>
</ul>


Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.
We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.
The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.


Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The September 2023 index changes for the ES50 index was confirmed after the close on Friday 1st September 2023.</li>
<li>There will be two ADDs and two DELETEs. One set of changes was well anticipated by us. The other set comes as a major surprise to us.</li>
<li>Collectively, the two ADDs could see ~US$2.4bn index flows and the two DELs could see ~US$2.9bn index flows, with US$500mm of reverse funding flows.</li>
</ul>


The September 2023 index changes for the ES50 index was confirmed after the close on Friday 1st September 2023.
There will be two ADDs and two DELETEs. One set of changes was well anticipated by us. The other set comes as a major surprise to us.
Collectively, the two ADDs could see ~US$2.4bn index flows and the two DELs could see ~US$2.9bn index flows, with US$500mm of reverse funding flows.


Quiddity ES50 Sep 23 Rebal: Ferrari/Vonovia Change Confirmed + Another US$2bn+ Flow Surprise!

<ul>
<li>The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.</li>
<li>The index changes will be confirmed after the close on 1st September 2023.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a final look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review.</li>
</ul>


The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.
The index changes will be confirmed after the close on 1st September 2023.
In this insight, we take a final look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review.


Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: US$1.3bn Flow for Ferrari Likely; Announcement Soon

<ul>
<li>The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.</li>
<li>As ES50 index changes generally involve large cap names, these Rebalance events have historically had significant volume and ADV impact.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2023.</li>
</ul>


The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.
As ES50 index changes generally involve large cap names, these Rebalance events have historically had significant volume and ADV impact.
In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2023.


Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: Massive Flows; Might Be Time for LONG Ferrari - SHORT Vonovia

<ul>
<li>The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.</li>
<li>Historically, these Rebalance events have had significant volume and ADV impact and they generally involve large cap names. </li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2023.</li>
</ul>


The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.
Historically, these Rebalance events have had significant volume and ADV impact and they generally involve large cap names. 
In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2023.


Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: Ferrari Retains the Lead; US$1.26bn Potential Inflow

Germany

Vonovia SE provides real estate services. The Company manages, leases, and sells apartments. Vonovia offers residential real estate to customers throughout Germany.

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Vonovia (VNA GR)

Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

We're constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI is above $93 support, however, the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX is breaking above 4.35%...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity ES50 Sep 23 Rebal: Ferrari/Vonovia Change Confirmed + Another US$2bn+ Flow Surprise!

I would look to go SHORT Saint-Gobain vs peers during the Inclusion event especially if Saint-Gobain sharply outperforms peers between now and the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: US$1.3bn Flow for Ferrari Likely; Announcement Soon

I expect Ferrari NV to be added to the ES50 index and Vonovia to be deleted from the ES50 index in September 2023.There could be 13+ days of volume...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: Massive Flows; Might Be Time for LONG Ferrari - SHORT Vonovia

I would go LONG Ferrari - SHORT Vonovia until the Inclusion event considering the significance of the expected index flow dynamics even though...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: Ferrari Retains the Lead; US$1.26bn Potential Inflow

If Ferrari's share price does not fall by more than 10% vs other potential ADDs, Ferrari could become an ADD and experience an index inflow of...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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