Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In Q2FY23, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thermax-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4578:1" rel="noopener">Thermax (TMX IN)</a> recorded strong revenue growth of 41% y/y to Rs20.8bn, driven by strong growth across all the three segments.</li>
<li>The company bore the brunt of high raw material prices as EBIT margins saw a 900 bps decline y/y to 6.9%. However, EBIT margin improved 200 bps over Q1FY23.</li>
<li>The order book of the company grew 46% y/y to Rs94.8bn. Order book is well diversified across sectors. Domestic orders comprised ~84% of the order book.  </li>
</ul>


In Q2FY23, Thermax (TMX IN) recorded strong revenue growth of 41% y/y to Rs20.8bn, driven by strong growth across all the three segments.
The company bore the brunt of high raw material prices as EBIT margins saw a 900 bps decline y/y to 6.9%. However, EBIT margin improved 200 bps over Q1FY23.
The order book of the company grew 46% y/y to Rs94.8bn. Order book is well diversified across sectors. Domestic orders comprised ~84% of the order book.  


Thermax (TMX IN): Strong Order Book Entails Visibility Amid Margin Pressure

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Johnson Controls-Hitachi Air Conditioning India / Equity Bottom-Up

Johnson Controls-Hitachi Air Conditioning India

<ul>
<li>Our channel interactions continue to suggest, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/johnson-controls-hitachi-air-conditioning-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6172:1" rel="noopener">Johnson Controls-Hitachi Air Conditioning India (JCHAC IN)</a> will not be able to recover market share over the next two years. </li>
<li>More disappointment in line with what we have seen in Q2 remains a strong probability. </li>
<li>Other annual report concerns also warrant attention, best to AVOID in spite of a sharp correction in stock price. </li>
</ul>


Our channel interactions continue to suggest, Johnson Controls-Hitachi Air Conditioning India (JCHAC IN) will not be able to recover market share over the next two years. 
More disappointment in line with what we have seen in Q2 remains a strong probability. 
Other annual report concerns also warrant attention, best to AVOID in spite of a sharp correction in stock price. 


Johnson Hitachi (JCHAC IN) | Losing Its "Cool"

<ul>
<li>The demand environment for offline electronic retailers has been good in Q1, the macro factors also point to good growth for FY23. </li>
<li>Companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> have done well. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/voltas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19924:1" rel="noopener">Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN)</a> has not been able to recover. </li>
<li>Indian consumer no longer wants everything cheap, assuming affordability, quality and brand value is taking prominence. </li>
</ul>


The demand environment for offline electronic retailers has been good in Q1, the macro factors also point to good growth for FY23. 
Companies like Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK) and Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) have done well. Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN) has not been able to recover. 
Indian consumer no longer wants everything cheap, assuming affordability, quality and brand value is taking prominence. 


India Channel Insight #41 | Haier, Samsung, Voltas

<ul>
<li>We believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/havells-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9158:1" rel="noopener">Havells India (HAVL IN)</a> has chosen the route of instant gratification by not increasing prices and gaining market share for Lloyd this AC Season. </li>
<li>After-Sales Service and aspirational value for the Lloyd brand is poor, there is no brand loyalty in the segments Lloyd operates in and is price sensitive. </li>
<li>Increased prices and course correction by  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/voltas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19924:1" rel="noopener">Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN)</a> could result in HAVL giving up some of its recent market share gains building a stronger Bear case for HAVL. </li>
</ul>


We believe Havells India (HAVL IN) has chosen the route of instant gratification by not increasing prices and gaining market share for Lloyd this AC Season. 
After-Sales Service and aspirational value for the Lloyd brand is poor, there is no brand loyalty in the segments Lloyd operates in and is price sensitive. 
Increased prices and course correction by  Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN) could result in HAVL giving up some of its recent market share gains building a stronger Bear case for HAVL. 


Havells India (HAVL IN) | Instant Gratification?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/voltas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19924:1" rel="noopener">Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN)</a> had a brutal Q4FY24 especially for its UPC segment where it lost market share to rival <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/havells-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9158:1" rel="noopener">Havells India (HAVL IN)</a>.  </li>
<li>There is a possibility of regaining some of the lost market share with some pricing interventions and high brand equity, however, it will be at cost of margins. </li>
<li>The sector view remains bearish, however, relative to HAVL, the downside would be limited with market share gains in Air-Conditioners (ACs) as key monitorable. </li>
</ul>



Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN) had a brutal Q4FY24 especially for its UPC segment where it lost market share to rival Havells India (HAVL IN).  
There is a possibility of regaining some of the lost market share with some pricing interventions and high brand equity, however, it will be at cost of margins. 
The sector view remains bearish, however, relative to HAVL, the downside would be limited with market share gains in Air-Conditioners (ACs) as key monitorable. 


Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN) | Expected to Fight Back

India

Voltas Limited offers engineering solutions for a wide spectrum of industries in areas such as heating, ventilation and air conditioning, refrigeration, electro-mechanical projects, textile machinery, machine tools, mining and construction equipment, materials handling, water management, building management systems, indoor air quality and chemicals.

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Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN)

Thermax (TMX IN): Strong Order Book Entails Visibility Amid Margin Pressure

In Q2FY23, Thermax reported 41% revenue growth, while the company’s order book jumped 46%. However, inflationary pressures are expected to impact...

Tina Banerjee

Johnson Hitachi (JCHAC IN) | Losing Its "Cool"

In spite of a sharp correction in price, Johnson Hitachi (JCHAC IN) is best an AVOID. Product quality issues and loss in market share imply more...

Pranav Bhavsar

India Channel Insight #41 | Haier, Samsung, Voltas

The Indian durables market is witnessing changing consumer behaviour aiding an optimistic outlook for FY23 along increasing competitive intensity...

Pranav Bhavsar

Havells India (HAVL IN) | Instant Gratification?

Havells India (HAVL IN) market share gains are expected to be shorted lived, Voltas is expected to fight back and hence the bear case for HAVL.

Pranav Bhavsar

Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN) | Expected to Fight Back

Voltas (VOLT IN) is expected to fight back with some pricing interventions to regain some of its lost market share. While it is relatively...

Pranav Bhavsar

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