Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>This is our first report on a telecommunication giant, Vodafone Group ADR.</li><li>The company produced a resilient financial performance in 2022.</li><li>We initiate coverage on the stock of Vodafone Group with a 'Buy' rating.</li></ul>

This is our first report on a telecommunication giant, Vodafone Group ADR.The company produced a resilient financial performance in 2022.We initiate coverage on the stock of Vodafone Group with a 'Buy' rating.

Vodafone Group ADR: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The agreement between Vodafone and the consortium values the company at a generous 24x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 19% premium over the 3-month VWAP (14.7% above my DCF-based fair value estimate).</li>
<li>Nevertheless the spread (+0.44%) signals that Oak Holdings may not obtain the necessary 95% to squeeze-out. Risk arb funds are betting on higher returns from a Domination Agreement.</li>
<li>On rather aggressive assumptions (90% payout, 4.5% rate of return, 2.5% growth) a dividend-discount model provides a €39.6/share valuation. This could still turn into another messy Kabel Deustschland scenario.</li>
</ul>


The agreement between Vodafone and the consortium values the company at a generous 24x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 19% premium over the 3-month VWAP (14.7% above my DCF-based fair value estimate).
Nevertheless the spread (+0.44%) signals that Oak Holdings may not obtain the necessary 95% to squeeze-out. Risk arb funds are betting on higher returns from a Domination Agreement.
On rather aggressive assumptions (90% payout, 4.5% rate of return, 2.5% growth) a dividend-discount model provides a €39.6/share valuation. This could still turn into another messy Kabel Deustschland scenario.


Oak Holdings/Vantage Towers: Tendering Vs. Domination Agreement

SPAC Deep Dive, subSPAC

subSPAC

SPAC Deep Dive

Each week we’ll identify and break down for you SPACs that are capturing market share and making an impact.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Elon Musk's Starlink recently <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2022/08/25/t-mobile-phones-will-connect-to-starlink-for-free-starting-next-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced plans</a> to enter the global carrier market, spooking shareholders of space-based cellular operator AST SpaceMobile.</li><li>AST, which went public through a SPAC in 2021, has plans to commercialise global space based telecommunications, but has notably struggled due to technical challenges.</li><li>AST Shareholders have feared that the Starlink announcement risked overshadowing the company’s upcoming launch and also possibly beat the company to market, despite the latter having a significant head start.</li></ul>

Elon Musk's Starlink recently announced plans to enter the global carrier market, spooking shareholders of space-based cellular operator AST SpaceMobile.AST, which went public through a SPAC in 2021, has plans to commercialise global space based telecommunications, but has notably struggled due to technical challenges.AST Shareholders have feared that the Starlink announcement risked overshadowing the company’s upcoming launch and also possibly beat the company to market, despite the latter having a significant head start.

AST SpaceMobile Vs Starlink: The Race for Global Connectivity

Latest News from the World’s Leading Innovators

Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Headline Developments SpaceX (private) is set to launch The Pentagon’s next-generation national security satellite to orbit - the first launch with a reused rocket.  The launch of the GPS III SV05 for Space Force (below) will take place using the same Falcon 9 rocket booster that launched GPS III SV04 last November.

Headline Developments SpaceX (private) is set to launch The Pentagon’s next-generation national security satellite to orbit - the first launch with a reused rocket.  The launch of the GPS III SV05 for Space Force (below) will take place using the same Falcon 9 rocket booster that launched GPS III SV04 last November.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Traditionally, telecom companies in mature markets are "easy."  Infrastructure is basically built, but there is always maintenance and capex to upgrade throughput. Churn is low. Customers occasionally add on new services. They are generally cash machines. Comparing telcos is often reasonably easy. Mostly it comes down to how aggressively the company prices to customers, how it seeks non-standard revenue off its infrastructure and sales base, or how it returns capital to shareholders. <div class="content-highlight">Every now and then, a telecom company gets complicated. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> is now one of those companies.</div>The issue is now significant enough that one should avoid using EBIT or EBITDA (or EBITDA less capex) for Softbank Corp as a comparative tool to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> without more clarity. There is recently a new kicker involved too, which means one should probably consider Softbank Corp differently than the other two for OTHER reasons too.

Traditionally, telecom companies in mature markets are "easy."  Infrastructure is basically built, but there is always maintenance and capex to upgrade throughput. Churn is low. Customers occasionally add on new services. They are generally cash machines. Comparing telcos is often reasonably easy. Mostly it comes down to how aggressively the company prices to customers, how it seeks non-standard revenue off its infrastructure and sales base, or how it returns capital to shareholders. Every now and then, a telecom company gets complicated. Softbank Corp (9434 JP) is now one of those companies.The issue is now significant enough that one should avoid using EBIT or EBITDA (or EBITDA less capex) for Softbank Corp as a comparative tool to NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP) and KDDI Corp (9433 JP) without more clarity. There is recently a new kicker involved too, which means one should probably consider Softbank Corp differently than the other two for OTHER reasons too. 

Softbank Corp - Accounting for The Accounting Is Complicated

United Kingdom

Vodafone Group PLC is a mobile telecommunications company providing a range of services, including voice and data communications.  The Company operates in Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, the United States, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East through its subsidiaries, associates, and investments.

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Vodafone (VOD LN)

Vodafone Group ADR: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy

This is our first report on a telecommunication giant, Vodafone Group ADR. The company produced a resilient financial performance in 2022. We...

Baptista Research

Oak Holdings/Vantage Towers: Tendering Vs. Domination Agreement

The agreement values VTWR at a generous 24x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 19% premium to 3-month VWAP. Oak Holdings intends to enter into a domination and P&L...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

AST SpaceMobile Vs Starlink: The Race for Global Connectivity

Elon Musk's Starlink recently announced plans to enter the global carrier market, spooking shareholders of space-based cellular operator AST...

subSPAC

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #36

Headline Developments: SpaceX (private) is set to launch The Pentagon’s next-generation national security satellite to orbit.

Granite Bay Capital

Softbank Corp - Accounting for The Accounting Is Complicated

Softbank Corporation is more expensive than it appears when one uses traditional telco metrics such as EV/EBITDA or EV/OP multiples. It's all in...

Travis Lundy

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