Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>This post provides an update of Evidente&rsquo;s currency model.&nbsp; Under-valuation of the A$/US$ has now reached an extreme, while the Big Mac index also points to deep A$/US$ under-valuation.&nbsp; ASX listed US$ earners have performed poorly despite the renewed deprecation of the A$ over the past six months.&nbsp;</li><li>I also assess the investment case against Brambles, which generates around half of its revenue in North America.&nbsp; The company will be undergoing a capex hump at a time when its marginal return on capital has been deteriorating to the point of recently turning negative.&nbsp;</li><li>I examine its remuneration scheme and conclude that the fact that the board, ESG advisory firms and institutional investors endorse complex and opaque Long Term Incentive plans of this kind, suggests that the bloated corporate governance industry has a long way to go to achieving adequate alignment of interests between senior executives and shareholders.</li></ul>

This post provides an update of Evidente&rsquo;s currency model.&nbsp; Under-valuation of the A$/US$ has now reached an extreme, while the Big Mac index also points to deep A$/US$ under-valuation.&nbsp; ASX listed US$ earners have performed poorly despite the renewed deprecation of the A$ over the past six months.&nbsp;I also assess the investment case against Brambles, which generates around half of its revenue in North America.&nbsp; The company will be undergoing a capex hump at a time when its marginal return on capital has been deteriorating to the point of recently turning negative.&nbsp;I examine its remuneration scheme and conclude that the fact that the board, ESG advisory firms and institutional investors endorse complex and opaque Long Term Incentive plans of this kind, suggests that the bloated corporate governance industry has a long way to go to achieving adequate alignment of interests between senior executives and shareholders.

A$ buy signal strengthens | Investment case against Brambles

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Equity Bottom-Up

Qantas is Australia's national carrier and the leading domestic airline with more than 65% market share.It is also--with the inclusion of Jetstar--Australia's largest international carrier, with about 25% market share of passenger traffic into and out of the country.While this reflects the strength of the Qantas brand, the international business is facing challenges as it operates at a cost-base disadvantage to Asian and Middle Eastern carriers.During the past five years, competition has driven excess capacity in the domestic market, leading to downward pressure on fares, particularly in the leisure segment where demand is highly price elastic.Qantas International operates at a cost-base disadvantage to Asian and Middle Eastern airlines that have added capacity to target Australia. Some are sovereign-funded with lower benchmark return targets than Qantas.Analysts: Ross MacMillan and Tim Mann

Qantas is Australia's national carrier and the leading domestic airline with more than 65% market share.It is also--with the inclusion of Jetstar--Australia's largest international carrier, with about 25% market share of passenger traffic into and out of the country.While this reflects the strength of the Qantas brand, the international business is facing challenges as it operates at a cost-base disadvantage to Asian and Middle Eastern carriers.During the past five years, competition has driven excess capacity in the domestic market, leading to downward pressure on fares, particularly in the leisure segment where demand is highly price elastic.Qantas International operates at a cost-base disadvantage to Asian and Middle Eastern airlines that have added capacity to target Australia. Some are sovereign-funded with lower benchmark return targets than Qantas.Analysts: Ross MacMillan and Tim Mann

The airline industry's notoriously volatile nature prevents Qantas from making sustainable returns.

Australia

Virgin Australia Holdings Limited is an Australian-based  full service airline providing domestic and international operations.

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Virgin Australia Holdings (VAH AU)

A$ buy signal strengthens | Investment case against Brambles

This post provides an update of Evidente’s currency model. Under-valuation of the A$/US$ has now reached an extreme, while the Big Mac index also...

Sam Ferraro

The airline industry's notoriously volatile nature prevents Qantas from making sustainable returns.

Qantas is Australia's national carrier and the leading domestic airline with more than 65% market share.It is also--with the inclusion of...

Morningstar, Inc.

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