Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Petroleo Brasileiro  / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global growth stocks that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back, and we believe a continued pause/pullback is likely in these growth areas.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, we are seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas. This type of Sector rotation is common during bull markets.</li>
<li>Major supports continue to hold, including $98-99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), 4600 on the S&amp;P 500, 4400 on the EURO STOXX 50, and 2300 on the TOPIX</li>
</ul>


Global growth stocks that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back, and we believe a continued pause/pullback is likely in these growth areas.
Meanwhile, we are seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas. This type of Sector rotation is common during bull markets.
Major supports continue to hold, including $98-99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), 4600 on the S&amp;P 500, 4400 on the EURO STOXX 50, and 2300 on the TOPIX


Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

<ul>
<li>Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).</li>
<li>The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.</li>
<li>Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors</li>
</ul>


Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).
The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.
Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors


Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

<ul>
<li>We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction.</li>
<li>We still believe a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows -- or even an undercut.</li>
<li>With that said, we continue to see attractive and actionable setups, primarily within cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and Financials).</li>
</ul>


We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction.
We still believe a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows -- or even an undercut.
With that said, we continue to see attractive and actionable setups, primarily within cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and Financials).


Encouraging Signs, But Concerns Still Outweigh; Buying Materials, Energy, Industrials, Health Care

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>CSL offers USD 179.25/share in cash, 16.9x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 29x Fwd P/E, and a 61% premium. The conversations became public at close to 12-month lows for Vifor shares.</li>
<li>Deal is predicated on pipeline, future prospects for renal disease and iron deficiency. My fair value estimate (DCF based) is CHF 147.79/share, below the offer price.</li>
<li>I believe the deal should close within the terms and timetable outlined. Adjusted gross spread is 2.8%. Long GALN SW (there's FX risk, which can be hedged).</li>
</ul>


CSL offers USD 179.25/share in cash, 16.9x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 29x Fwd P/E, and a 61% premium. The conversations became public at close to 12-month lows for Vifor shares.
Deal is predicated on pipeline, future prospects for renal disease and iron deficiency. My fair value estimate (DCF based) is CHF 147.79/share, below the offer price.
I believe the deal should close within the terms and timetable outlined. Adjusted gross spread is 2.8%. Long GALN SW (there's FX risk, which can be hedged).


CSL/Vifor Pharma: Recommended Offer on Expanding Dialysis Market

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

LG Energy Solution / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs. </li>
<li>Trading debuts across different markets have been poor. But there are some trades to be put for lock-up expiries.</li>
<li>This will be our last week of ECM weekly notes for the year. Our weekly notes will be back in January when things start to pick up again.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs. 
Trading debuts across different markets have been poor. But there are some trades to be put for lock-up expiries.
This will be our last week of ECM weekly notes for the year. Our weekly notes will be back in January when things start to pick up again.


ECM Weekly (19th December 2021) - LG Energy, Hyundai Engineering, Chervon, Sirnaomics, JG Mag A/H

Switzerland

Vifor Pharma AG researches, develops, produces, and markets pharmaceutical products. The Company offers pharmaceutical drugs for iron deficiency, nephrology, and cardio-renal therapies. Vifor Pharma serves customers worldwide.

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Vifor Pharma AG (GALE IX)

Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

Seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas globally. Constructive if supports hold: $98-99 on...

Vermilion Research

Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Despite the intact downtrend on Japan's TOPIX, relative strength is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend; this tells us Japan is emerging as...

Vermilion Research

Encouraging Signs, But Concerns Still Outweigh; Buying Materials, Energy, Industrials, Health Care

We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction. Still, cyclical value remains...

Vermilion Research

CSL/Vifor Pharma: Recommended Offer on Expanding Dialysis Market

Deal is predicated on pipeline, future prospects for renal disease and iron deficiency. Adjusted gross spread is 2.8%. Long GALN SW (there's FX...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

ECM Weekly (19th December 2021) - LG Energy, Hyundai Engineering, Chervon, Sirnaomics, JG Mag A/H

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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