Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A broad USD rally is finally underway, and the risk of an offshore dollar shortage remains acute for EM - the asset allocation implications have been covered in recent notes.</li>
<li>The deep junk issue last week from WeWork with its ‘community adjusted EBITDA’ metric as well as the lending scandal in Australia engulfing AMP are classic late credit cycle warning signals.</li>
<li>Real housing prices in Scandinavia and Australia/Canada as well as HK are dangerously above long-term trend and vulnerable to a global…</li>
</ul>


A broad USD rally is finally underway, and the risk of an offshore dollar shortage remains acute for EM - the asset allocation implications have been covered in recent notes.
The deep junk issue last week from WeWork with its ‘community adjusted EBITDA’ metric as well as the lending scandal in Australia engulfing AMP are classic late credit cycle warning signals.
Real housing prices in Scandinavia and Australia/Canada as well as HK are dangerously above long-term trend and vulnerable to a global…


Beware Deep Junk and Liar Loans, as Netflix Reinvents Media Sector…

ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18840" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18840:1">CBS Corporation (CBS US)</a> has made an opening bid to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7472" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7472:1">Viacom Inc Class A (VIA US)</a> while VIA counters the offer immediately.</li>
<li>Even at share swap ratio of 0.65 CBS shares for every VIA share, the deal (without taking into account cost synergy) would be EPS accretive for CBS.</li>
<li>The sector's M&amp;A deal flows and attractive valuation could put enough pressure for CBS's CEO to pull the trigger.</li>
<li>The play is through <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11654" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11654:1">Viacom Inc Class B (VIAB US)</a> as its share price is 14% lower than VIA's.</li>
</ul><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18840" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18840:1">CBS Corporation</a>…



CBS Corporation (CBS US) has made an opening bid to acquire Viacom Inc Class A (VIA US) while VIA counters the offer immediately.
Even at share swap ratio of 0.65 CBS shares for every VIA share, the deal (without taking into account cost synergy) would be EPS accretive for CBS.
The sector's M&amp;A deal flows and attractive valuation could put enough pressure for CBS's CEO to pull the trigger.
The play is through Viacom Inc Class B (VIAB US) as its share price is 14% lower than VIA's.
CBS Corporation…

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

<ul><li>Internet TV is the most important theme driving Walt Disney’s share price and those of other TV networks</li><li>We have increased the weighting of this theme as an earnings driver for the TV broadcasting sector from 5% four years ago to 45% today.</li><li>Expect profit warnings from Disney related to its TV networks business</li><li>Sell Disney shares</li><li>Underweight the global TV broadcasting sector</li></ul>

Internet TV is the most important theme driving Walt Disney’s share price and those of other TV networksWe have increased the weighting of this theme as an earnings driver for the TV broadcasting sector from 5% four years ago to 45% today.Expect profit warnings from Disney related to its TV networks businessSell Disney sharesUnderweight the global TV broadcasting sector

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

2016 was another bumpy year for China’s luxury goods market, plagued by the long-term impact of the anti-corruption campaign undertaken by the central government and the economic downturn as well as China’s latest effort to curb wrongdoing in luxury consumption in a crackdown on the grey market.

2016 was another bumpy year for China’s luxury goods market, plagued by the long-term impact of the anti-corruption campaign undertaken by the central government and the economic downturn as well as China’s latest effort to curb wrongdoing in luxury consumption in a crackdown on the grey market.

China's Luxury Market Set for Steady Performance Amid Unfavourable Market Environment

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Relations between the US and China could (and likely will) deteriorate in the medium-term for any of the three following reasons: a) increased friction over US-China trade issues; b) more intemperate words or actions from the new US administration regarding Taiwan's political status; c) China more aggressively pursuing various territorial claims in the region (South China Sea, Senkaku Islands). One likely victim of rising tensions between the US and China is tourism between the two countries…

Relations between the US and China could (and likely will) deteriorate in the medium-term for any of the three following reasons: a) increased friction over US-China trade issues; b) more intemperate words or actions from the new US administration regarding Taiwan's political status; c) China more aggressively pursuing various territorial claims in the region (South China Sea, Senkaku Islands). One likely victim of rising tensions between the US and China is tourism between the two countries…

Rising US-China Tensions Will Hurt Tourism; Who Stands to Lose (And to Gain) The Most?

United States

Viacom Inc. produces media entertainment content.  The Company creates and acquires programming for television, the Internet, mobile devices, video games, and other consumer electronics products.  Viacom also produces, finances, and distributes motion pictures to movie theaters and on DVDs, television, digital and other platforms internationally.

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Viacom Inc Class A (VIA US)

Beware Deep Junk and Liar Loans, as Netflix Reinvents Media Sector…

A broad USD rally is finally underway, and the risk of an offshore dollar shortage remains acute for EM - the asset allocation implications have...

Sean Maher

CBS-Viacom M&A: The Second Time a Charm?

CBS Corporation (CBS US) has made an opening bid to acquire Viacom Inc Class A (VIA US) while VIA counters the offer immediately. Even at share...

Johannes Salim, CFA

Sell Disney; Underweight TV Broadcasters

Internet TV is the most important theme driving Walt Disney’s share price and those of other TV networks We have increased the weighting of this...

CM Research

China's Luxury Market Set for Steady Performance Amid Unfavourable Market Environment

2016 was another bumpy year for China’s luxury goods market, plagued by the long-term impact of the anti-corruption campaign undertaken by the...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Rising US-China Tensions Will Hurt Tourism; Who Stands to Lose (And to Gain) The Most?

Relations between the US and China could (and likely will) deteriorate in the medium-term for any of the three following reasons: a) increased...

Daniel Hellberg

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