Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

After the market close on 14 April, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-telecom-co-ltd-bbccd86c-474d-4a4d-946d-10e911a225a2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:395:1" rel="noopener">SK Telecom (017670 KS)</a> finally announced its long awaited decision to create a new holding company for its non-telecom related subsidiaries. The market has been waiting for this decision in the past 5+ years. In the past several weeks, the CEO of SK Telecom has mentioned a very high likelihood of the company announcing a new holdco structure.

After the market close on 14 April, SK Telecom (017670 KS) finally announced its long awaited decision to create a new holding company for its non-telecom related subsidiaries. The market has been waiting for this decision in the past 5+ years. In the past several weeks, the CEO of SK Telecom has mentioned a very high likelihood of the company announcing a new holdco structure. 

SK Telecom Officially Announces a Spin-Off to Create a Holding Company Structure

Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kt-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1112:1" rel="noopener">KT Corp (030200 KS)'s </a>stock price has been in a long bear hibernation for nearly 20 years. In this insight, we argue the key investment merits of KT Corp and why it could outperform the market in the next one to two years.
The key investment points of KT Corp are as follows:
<ul>
<li>Emphasis on business customers for AI &amp; cloud services</li>
<li>Solid dividends (dividend yield of 5.1%)</li>
<li>Attractive valuations (EV/EBITDA multiple of 2.2x in 2021)</li>
<li>Warren Buffett's recent investment in Verizon (a sign of big rotation from growth to value, greater interest in global telcos)</li>
<li>Undervalued, huge land &amp; property holdings</li>
<li>Strong growth of 5G services</li>
</ul>
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KT Corp (030200 KS)'s stock price has been in a long bear hibernation for nearly 20 years. In this insight, we argue the key investment merits of KT Corp and why it could outperform the market in the next one to two years.
The key investment points of KT Corp are as follows:

Emphasis on business customers for AI &amp; cloud services
Solid dividends (dividend yield of 5.1%)
Attractive valuations (EV/EBITDA multiple of 2.2x in 2021)
Warren Buffett's recent investment in Verizon (a sign of big rotation from growth to value, greater interest in global telcos)
Undervalued, huge land &amp; property holdings
Strong growth of 5G services



KT Corp - Increasing Value Amid Digital Transformation

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coupang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28425:1" rel="noopener">Coupang (CPNG US)</a> announced today that it plans to complete its IPO at $32 to $34 per share, from the previous IPO price range of $27 to $30 per share.We continue to believe that there will be a "first day pop" for the Coupang IPO. We believe that the first day pop could be somewhere between the mid-to-high end of our valuation range which his from $35 to $47.3 per share.If the IPO is priced at $33 per share, we believe the first day pop could be as high as $80.4 billion in market cap or $47.3 per share. Despite the first day pop, we find it difficult for Coupang to maintain such frothy valuations ($80 billion or $47.3 per share levels) for an extended period of time so our base case 6-12 months remains $35 per share ($60 billion in market cap).

Coupang (CPNG US) announced today that it plans to complete its IPO at $32 to $34 per share, from the previous IPO price range of $27 to $30 per share.We continue to believe that there will be a "first day pop" for the Coupang IPO. We believe that the first day pop could be somewhere between the mid-to-high end of our valuation range which his from $35 to $47.3 per share.If the IPO is priced at $33 per share, we believe the first day pop could be as high as $80.4 billion in market cap or $47.3 per share. Despite the first day pop, we find it difficult for Coupang to maintain such frothy valuations ($80 billion or $47.3 per share levels) for an extended period of time so our base case 6-12 months remains $35 per share ($60 billion in market cap).

Coupang - Slightly Raises IPO Price Range & The "First Day Pop"

On 17 February, it was revealed that <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-bets-billions-on-verizon-and-chevron-11613517434" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway</a> invested $8.6 billion in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/verizon-communications-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:790:1" rel="noopener">Verizon Communications (VZ US)</a>. At the end of 2020, Verizon was one of the top 10 holdings of Berkshire Hathaway. Not being able to read the mind of Warren Buffett, there are probably three main reasons why he invested billions of dollars in Verizon. <ul>
<li>A big beneficiary of 5G services in the US</li>
<li>A defensive stock with excellent cash flow</li>
<li>Cheap valuations</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">Warren Buffett buying a big amount of Verizon is another example of a rotation into value from growth which has been evident in the stock market in the past few weeks. </div>Verizon appears to be an excellent value stock with solid cash flow dynamics and these may be the key reasons why Warren Buffett invested in this stock. For the global investors searching for greater value, SK Telecom could potentially deliver even higher value than Verizon. SK Telecom is currently trading at 4.5x EV/EBITDA (2021) multiples right now, which is 41% lower than the EV/EBITDA multiple of Verizon. The average EV/EBITDA multiple of SK Telecom is 5.0x from 2018 to 2020, which is 33% lower than the average EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.4x for Verizon during this period.

On 17 February, it was revealed that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway invested $8.6 billion in Verizon Communications (VZ US). At the end of 2020, Verizon was one of the top 10 holdings of Berkshire Hathaway. Not being able to read the mind of Warren Buffett, there are probably three main reasons why he invested billions of dollars in Verizon. 
A big beneficiary of 5G services in the US
A defensive stock with excellent cash flow
Cheap valuations
Warren Buffett buying a big amount of Verizon is another example of a rotation into value from growth which has been evident in the stock market in the past few weeks. Verizon appears to be an excellent value stock with solid cash flow dynamics and these may be the key reasons why Warren Buffett invested in this stock. For the global investors searching for greater value, SK Telecom could potentially deliver even higher value than Verizon. SK Telecom is currently trading at 4.5x EV/EBITDA (2021) multiples right now, which is 41% lower than the EV/EBITDA multiple of Verizon. The average EV/EBITDA multiple of SK Telecom is 5.0x from 2018 to 2020, which is 33% lower than the average EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.4x for Verizon during this period.

Warren Buffett Invests Big in Verizon - Impact on SK Telecom

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

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Corrigenda: There is an error in this Insight. Please note the correction.
Correction: The first line under Results in the Detail section should read "Revenues of $6.64B (+22% YoY), a touch ahead of consensus $6.6B."
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We have been longtime fans of Netflix the product and Netflix’s management team can rightfully be described as visionary. They had the vision to have the public markets fund an experiment in business models that appears now set to breakeven on FCF in 2021. We have said for the past two quarters that Netflix is a good relative short given Deceleration in Subscriber Growth, Rising Churn, and Rising FCF burn. The key blow to our thesis is that FCF was given the all clear by management last night, while the CFO said churn was a record low.
The key question going forward…if Netflix can now generate tangible FCF into the future and this model is sustainable, don’t we then have to value Netflix on FCF? You don’t short stocks over arguments about what multiple to put on terminal values, and we aren’t advocating outright shorting Netflix, which has proven to be the #2 alltime widowmaker of short sellers (after Tesla), but we think Netflix resumes its role as the favored funding short once the dust clears from this quarter’s FCF announcement and investors focus back on the decelerating sub growth.
<div class="content-highlight">
Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.
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Corrigenda: There is an error in this Insight. Please note the correction.
Correction: The first line under Results in the Detail section should read "Revenues of $6.64B (+22% YoY), a touch ahead of consensus $6.6B."


We have been longtime fans of Netflix the product and Netflix’s management team can rightfully be described as visionary. They had the vision to have the public markets fund an experiment in business models that appears now set to breakeven on FCF in 2021. We have said for the past two quarters that Netflix is a good relative short given Deceleration in Subscriber Growth, Rising Churn, and Rising FCF burn. The key blow to our thesis is that FCF was given the all clear by management last night, while the CFO said churn was a record low.
The key question going forward…if Netflix can now generate tangible FCF into the future and this model is sustainable, don’t we then have to value Netflix on FCF? You don’t short stocks over arguments about what multiple to put on terminal values, and we aren’t advocating outright shorting Netflix, which has proven to be the #2 alltime widowmaker of short sellers (after Tesla), but we think Netflix resumes its role as the favored funding short once the dust clears from this quarter’s FCF announcement and investors focus back on the decelerating sub growth.

Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.


Netflix 4Q20: It’s a Free Cash Flow Machine!

United States

Verizon Communications Inc. is an integrated telecommunications company that provides wire line voice and data services, wireless services, Internet services, and published directory information. The Company also provides network services for the federal government including business phone lines, data services, telecommunications equipment and payphones.

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Verizon Communications (VZ US)

SK Telecom Officially Announces a Spin-Off to Create a Holding Company Structure

After the market close on 14 April, SK Telecom (017670 KS) finally announced its long awaited decision to create a new holding company for its non...

Douglas Kim

KT Corp - Increasing Value Amid Digital Transformation

In this insight, we argue the key investment merits of KT Corp and why it could outperform the market in the next one to two years.

Douglas Kim

Coupang - Slightly Raises IPO Price Range & The "First Day Pop"

Coupang (CPNG US) announced today that it plans to complete its IPO at $32 to $34 per share, from the previous IPO price range of $27 to $30 per...

Douglas Kim

Warren Buffett Invests Big in Verizon - Impact on SK Telecom

Warren Buffett buying a big amount of Verizon is another example of a rotation into value from growth. This may also lead to more investors...

Douglas Kim

Netflix 4Q20: It’s a Free Cash Flow Machine!

Netflix posted an inline quarter, but the stock is up 14% on commentary about sustainability of FCF going forward. We don't advocate shorting NFLX...

Aaron Gabin

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