Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The price of ASML EUV machine is increasing as thruput (wafer / hour) is increasing. </li>
<li>TSMC 3nm is fully booked in 2025. Here is the list of clients / chips. </li>
<li>SiC and MCU over-investments in China? Very likely. China is limiting SiC investments. </li>
</ul>


The price of ASML EUV machine is increasing as thruput (wafer / hour) is increasing. 
TSMC 3nm is fully booked in 2025. Here is the list of clients / chips. 
SiC and MCU over-investments in China? Very likely. China is limiting SiC investments. 


Tech News This Week. ASML, TSMC, Intel, SiC Capacity, MCU in China

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>4Q24 Guidance: Sales will be US$26.1-26.9bn, up 13%; GM outlook will be 57-59%; and OPM outlook is 46.5-48.5%</li>
<li>AI revenue contribution will triple and reach mid-teens sales contribution this year. Almost every AI innovator cooperates with TSMC.</li>
<li>APT will grow above the corporate average in the next five years.GM is approaching the corporate average, but it's not the same currently.</li>
</ul>


4Q24 Guidance: Sales will be US$26.1-26.9bn, up 13%; GM outlook will be 57-59%; and OPM outlook is 46.5-48.5%
AI revenue contribution will triple and reach mid-teens sales contribution this year. Almost every AI innovator cooperates with TSMC.
APT will grow above the corporate average in the next five years.GM is approaching the corporate average, but it's not the same currently.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outgrowth; Co-Work with Almost AI Innovators.

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)'s </a>outlook for 4Q24 is expected to show a decrease of around -5% QoQ, with a minimum gross margin of 30%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualcomm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1" rel="noopener">Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)</a> moving out of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a> and has opened up opportunities for UMC.  </li>
<li>UMC is considering selling its 8" Fab, known as 8S, due to its consistently poor performance.  </li>
</ul>



United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)'s outlook for 4Q24 is expected to show a decrease of around -5% QoQ, with a minimum gross margin of 30%.

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) moving out of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) and has opened up opportunities for UMC.  
UMC is considering selling its 8" Fab, known as 8S, due to its consistently poor performance.  


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q24 Outlook Blurred; QCOM Opens up a New Chance; Considering Selling Fab 8S.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Samsung's foundry business is losing more customers to TSMC, who is perceived as lower risk.</li>
<li>TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up strong but plateauing, UMC lackluster, confirming 2 big trends.</li>
<li>Memory Monitor: Nanya results miss; highlights weakness in non-AI demand.</li>
</ul>


Samsung's foundry business is losing more customers to TSMC, who is perceived as lower risk.
TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up strong but plateauing, UMC lackluster, confirming 2 big trends.
Memory Monitor: Nanya results miss; highlights weakness in non-AI demand.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Taking More Samsung Customers; Hon Hai Unveils Major AI Projects

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> will initially use Novatek's DDIC (Display Driver IC) for the iPhone 16, but it will soon being replaced largely.</li>
<li>In 4Q24, there is a possibility of experiencing a decline, with a potential quarter-over-quarter decrease of approximately 5-10%.</li>
<li>The Chinese panel market continues to be a key battleground, and Novatek must navigate these challenges to remain competitive.</li>
</ul>



Apple (AAPL US) will initially use Novatek's DDIC (Display Driver IC) for the iPhone 16, but it will soon being replaced largely.
In 4Q24, there is a possibility of experiencing a decline, with a potential quarter-over-quarter decrease of approximately 5-10%.
The Chinese panel market continues to be a key battleground, and Novatek must navigate these challenges to remain competitive.


Novatek (3034.TT): To Utilizing on IPhone 16 DDIC Will Soon Be Largely Replaced by Korean Fabless.

Taiwan

Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation offers integrated circuit foundry services.  The Company manufactures 0.18um logic, mixed-signal, analog, high voltage, low power, CMOS RF, flash, embedded memory, and bipolar CMOS DMOS semiconductors.

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Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)

Tech News This Week. ASML, TSMC, Intel, SiC Capacity, MCU in China

ASML price increase in 2025. TSMC 3nm Order Surge Expected in 2025. Intel's Next-Gen Panther Lake CPUs Handed to Lenovo. China restrictions on SiC...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outgrowth; Co-Work with Almost AI Innovators.

TSMC's 4Q24 guidance shows strong sales growth, with AI revenue set to triple and contribute significantly to overall sales. APT expected to...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q24 Outlook Blurred; QCOM Opens up a New Chance; Considering Selling Fab 8S.

UMC's 4Q24 outlook expects -5% QoQ decrease with 30% gross margin, Qualcomm moving out of SMIC opens opportunities for UMC, considering selling...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Taking More Samsung Customers; Hon Hai Unveils Major AI Projects

Samsung's foundry business losing customers to TSMC due to perceived lower risk; TSMC and UMC sales trends confirm industry shifts, while Nanya...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Novatek (3034.TT): To Utilizing on IPhone 16 DDIC Will Soon Be Largely Replaced by Korean Fabless.

In 4Q24, Novatek faces potential decline in Chinese panel market, with a potential QoQ decrease of approximately 5-10%, and the demand may start...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tech News This Week. ASML, TSMC, Intel, SiC Capacity, MCU in China

ASML price increase in 2025. TSMC 3nm Order Surge Expected in 2025. Intel's Next-Gen Panther Lake CPUs Handed to Lenovo. China restrictions on SiC...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outgrowth; Co-Work with Almost AI Innovators.

​TSMC's 4Q24 guidance shows strong sales growth, with AI revenue set to triple and contribute significantly to overall sales. APT expected to...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q24 Outlook Blurred; QCOM Opens up a New Chance; Considering Selling Fab 8S.

​UMC's 4Q24 outlook expects -5% QoQ decrease with 30% gross margin, Qualcomm moving out of SMIC opens opportunities for UMC, considering selling...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Taking More Samsung Customers; Hon Hai Unveils Major AI Projects

​Samsung's foundry business losing customers to TSMC due to perceived lower risk; TSMC and UMC sales trends confirm industry shifts, while Nanya...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Novatek (3034.TT): To Utilizing on IPhone 16 DDIC Will Soon Be Largely Replaced by Korean Fabless.

​In 4Q24, Novatek faces potential decline in Chinese panel market, with a potential QoQ decrease of approximately 5-10%, and the demand may start...

Patrick Liao

TSMC's 4Q24 guidance shows strong sales growth, with AI revenue set to triple and contribute significantly to overall sales. APT expected to...

UMC's 4Q24 outlook expects -5% QoQ decrease with 30% gross margin, Qualcomm moving out of SMIC opens opportunities for UMC, considering selling...

Samsung's foundry business losing customers to TSMC due to perceived lower risk; TSMC and UMC sales trends confirm industry shifts, while Nanya...

In 4Q24, Novatek faces potential decline in Chinese panel market, with a potential QoQ decrease of approximately 5-10%, and the demand may start...