European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Both Elliott (62p/share prospective offer) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> are interested in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/currys-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21892:1" rel="noopener">Currys PLC (CURY LN)</a> a battered (but with long history) UK retailer of electronics and appliances.</li>
<li>Currys has been reshaping since 2008, without the market giving credit by the looks of the share price. This time might be different with focus on higher-margin services and credit.</li>
<li>On a comparables EV/EBITDA basis, my fair value estimate is 76p/share (£861 million implied equity value), 23% above Elliot's offer. The Board may be willing to engage around that figure.</li>
</ul>


Both Elliott (62p/share prospective offer) and JD.com (9618 HK) are interested in Currys PLC (CURY LN) a battered (but with long history) UK retailer of electronics and appliances.
Currys has been reshaping since 2008, without the market giving credit by the looks of the share price. This time might be different with focus on higher-margin services and credit.
On a comparables EV/EBITDA basis, my fair value estimate is 76p/share (£861 million implied equity value), 23% above Elliot's offer. The Board may be willing to engage around that figure.


JD.com and Elliott Interested in Unloved Currys

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a> is looking to raise around US$375m in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about earnings forecast and provide our thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



Trial Holdings (5882 JP) is looking to raise around US$375m in its Japan IPO.
TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.
In this note, we talk about earnings forecast and provide our thoughts on valuation.


Trial Holdings Pre-IPO -Thoughts on Valuation

<ul>
<li>The Additional Acceptance Period ended on 29 September. On 3 October, FEMSA announced the satisfaction of all conditions. On 5 October, FEMSA announced that its participation amounts to 96.87%.</li>
<li>Settlement will occur on 7 October. FEMSA intends to initiate a squeeze-out procedure and delist the Valora shares from trading on SIX Swiss Exchange.</li>
<li>The tender was good news for shareholders. My TP is CHF 252.2/share, therefore I believe the offer is fair and there was no counterbid. </li>
</ul>


The Additional Acceptance Period ended on 29 September. On 3 October, FEMSA announced the satisfaction of all conditions. On 5 October, FEMSA announced that its participation amounts to 96.87%.
Settlement will occur on 7 October. FEMSA intends to initiate a squeeze-out procedure and delist the Valora shares from trading on SIX Swiss Exchange.
The tender was good news for shareholders. My TP is CHF 252.2/share, therefore I believe the offer is fair and there was no counterbid. 


FEMSA/​Valora Holding: Offer Success and Squeeze-Out

<ul>
<li>Valora has agreed to a CHF 260/share cash offer (52% premium, 7.6x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 24.7x Fwd P/E) from FEMSA, which intends to use it as a platform for European expansion.</li>
<li>I consider the offer as fair (my DCF valuation of Valora is CHF 252.2/share, WACC 8.5%, 1.7% implied perpetuity growth rate).</li>
<li>Valora should benefit from FEMSA's know-how and added scale. A counterbid could be possible from the likes of Migros and Coop.</li>
</ul>


Valora has agreed to a CHF 260/share cash offer (52% premium, 7.6x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 24.7x Fwd P/E) from FEMSA, which intends to use it as a platform for European expansion.
I consider the offer as fair (my DCF valuation of Valora is CHF 252.2/share, WACC 8.5%, 1.7% implied perpetuity growth rate).
Valora should benefit from FEMSA's know-how and added scale. A counterbid could be possible from the likes of Migros and Coop.


FEMSA/Valora Holding: Fair Offer and Possible Counterbid

Switzerland

Valora Holding AG is a holding company. The company owns and operates kiosks, self-service stores, food, coffee and snack shops and restaurants, and wholesale outlets. Valora also owns and manages commercial real estate in Switzerland.

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Valora Holding AG (VALN SW)

JD.com and Elliott Interested in Unloved Currys

Both Elliott and JD.com are interested in unloved UK retailer Currys PLC, with shows some potential for reshaping and higher-margin services....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Trial Holdings Pre-IPO -Thoughts on Valuation

After having cancelled its listing plans last year, the company is now looking to launch a smaller IPO of around US$250m, as per media reports.

Sumeet Singh

FEMSA/Valora Holding: Offer Success and Squeeze-Out

On 5 October, FEMSA announced that it holds 96.87% of Valora. With all conditions satisfied and settlement scheduled for 7 October, the following...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

FEMSA/Valora Holding: Fair Offer and Possible Counterbid

FEMSA intends to break into European convenience retail/food with a fair cash offer for Valora. A counterbid is not to be ruled out from the likes...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

JD.com and Elliott Interested in Unloved Currys

Both ​Elliott and JD.com are interested in unloved UK retailer Currys PLC, with shows some potential for reshaping and higher-margin services....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Trial Holdings Pre-IPO -Thoughts on Valuation

After having cancelled its listing plans last year, the company is now looking to launch a smaller IPO of around US$250m, as per media reports.

Sumeet Singh

FEMSA/​Valora Holding: Offer Success and Squeeze-Out

On 5 October, FEMSA announced that it holds 96.87% of Valora. With all conditions satisfied and settlement scheduled for 7 October, the following...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

FEMSA/Valora Holding: Fair Offer and Possible Counterbid

FEMSA intends to break into European convenience retail/food with a fair cash offer for Valora. A counterbid is not to be ruled out from the likes...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Both Elliott and JD.com are interested in unloved UK retailer Currys PLC, with shows some potential for reshaping and higher-margin services....

FEMSA/Valora Holding: Offer Success and Squeeze-Out