Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The MT Jaka Tarub crude oil storage vessel for the Wassana field has sailed away and is now on its way to the Wassana field.</li><li>The vessel is expected to arrive at Wassana in the next few days, to be followed by first oil shortly thereafter.</li><li>At US$70/bbl for Brent, YE23 net cash would be US$145 mm increasing to US$275 mm at YE24.</li></ul>

The MT Jaka Tarub crude oil storage vessel for the Wassana field has sailed away and is now on its way to the Wassana field.The vessel is expected to arrive at Wassana in the next few days, to be followed by first oil shortly thereafter.At US$70/bbl for Brent, YE23 net cash would be US$145 mm increasing to US$275 mm at YE24.

Valeura Energy (LSE: VLU): Wassana FSO sales away. Accretive acquisition of minorities.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Over January, production was ~1,800 boe/d with short term outages due to weather at Ombu and Pepper.</li><li>This compares with production rate of 1,900-2,000 in November which included an initial high contribution at East Pepper (that has since declined, as expected).</li><li>4Q22 production of 3,727 boe/d including 1,132 boe/d at Thorsby and 2,595 boe/d at Brooks was below our expectations of 3,970 boe/d.</li></ul>

Over January, production was ~1,800 boe/d with short term outages due to weather at Ombu and Pepper.This compares with production rate of 1,900-2,000 in November which included an initial high contribution at East Pepper (that has since declined, as expected).4Q22 production of 3,727 boe/d including 1,132 boe/d at Thorsby and 2,595 boe/d at Brooks was below our expectations of 3,970 boe/d.

<ul><li>Valeura is raising C$10 mm through a bought deal priced at C$2.54 per share.</li><li>The dilution associated with the C$10 mm equity issue is very small in the context of the company’s ~C$220 mm market cap.</li><li>Our net cash forecast at YE23 is now ~US$220 mm (versus market cap of ~US$165 mm) increasing to ~US$380 mm at YE24.</li></ul>

Valeura is raising C$10 mm through a bought deal priced at C$2.54 per share.The dilution associated with the C$10 mm equity issue is very small in the context of the company’s ~C$220 mm market cap.Our net cash forecast at YE23 is now ~US$220 mm (versus market cap of ~US$165 mm) increasing to ~US$380 mm at YE24.

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): C$10 mm financing

<ul><li><strong>GeoPark (GPRK US)C: Target price of US$31 per share:</strong><strong>Two new strong development wells at CPO-5</strong> – Two new development wells, Indico 6 and Indico 7, tested over 11,000 bbl/d gross (in aggregate) with hardly any water (Indico 6: 6,270 bbl/d, Indico 7: 5,245 bbl/d).</li><li>This would take gross production from the field from ~20 mbbl/d in 4Q22 to 25-27 mbbl/d.</li><li>OKEA Energy (OKEA NO): 4Q22 update – 4Q22 production in Norway was 19,887 boe/d.</li></ul>

GeoPark (GPRK US)C: Target price of US$31 per share:Two new strong development wells at CPO-5 – Two new development wells, Indico 6 and Indico 7, tested over 11,000 bbl/d gross (in aggregate) with hardly any water (Indico 6: 6,270 bbl/d, Indico 7: 5,245 bbl/d).This would take gross production from the field from ~20 mbbl/d in 4Q22 to 25-27 mbbl/d.OKEA Energy (OKEA NO): 4Q22 update – 4Q22 production in Norway was 19,887 boe/d.

<ul><li>Valeura has increased its stake the Thailand SPV from 85% to 87.5%, reflecting its increased investment in the SPV.</li><li>As a result, Valeura will capture a larger proportion of the value of the Thai assets, which we view as very positive.</li><li>We are increasing our target price from C$4.50/sh to C$4.70/sh after incorporating the increased stake in the Thai SPV and revisiting our model.</li></ul>

Valeura has increased its stake the Thailand SPV from 85% to 87.5%, reflecting its increased investment in the SPV.As a result, Valeura will capture a larger proportion of the value of the Thai assets, which we view as very positive.We are increasing our target price from C$4.50/sh to C$4.70/sh after incorporating the increased stake in the Thai SPV and revisiting our model.

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Increasing stake in Thailand SPV. Wassana MOPU recertified.

Canada

Valeura Energy Inc. operates as an exploration company. The Company engages in the development and production of petroleum and natural gas. Valeura Energy focuses on growing its resource base and production in the Thrace Basin in Northwest Turkey.

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Valeura Energy Inc (VLE CN)

Valeura Energy (LSE: VLU): Wassana FSO sales away. Accretive acquisition of minorities.

The MT Jaka Tarub crude oil storage vessel for the Wassana field has sailed away and is now on its way to the Wassana field.

Auctus Advisors

Auctus on Friday - 03/02/2023

4Q22 production of 3,727 boe/d including 1,132 boe/d at Thorsby and 2,595 boe/d at Brooks was below our expectations of 3,970 boe/d.

Auctus Advisors

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): C$10 mm financing

The dilution associated with the C$10 mm equity issue is very small in the context of the company’s ~C$220 mm market cap.

Auctus Advisors

Auctus on Friday - 27/02/2023

Two new development wells, Indico 6 and Indico 7, tested over 11,000 bbl/d gross (in aggregate) with hardly any water (Indico 6: 6,270 bbl/d,...

Auctus Advisors

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Increasing stake in Thailand SPV. Wassana MOPU recertified.

We are increasing our target price from C$4.50/sh to C$4.70/sh after incorporating the increased stake in the Thai SPV and revisiting our model.

Auctus Advisors

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