APAC Investment Strategy, Animal Spirits Report, Quiddity Advisors

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

APAC Investment Strategy, Animal Spirits Report

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2><strong>Executive Summary</strong></h2><ol>
<li>OPEC production cut plan supports our macro thesis of an oil-led, inflation expectations uplift.</li>
<li>Our original WTI peak base effect was +20 percent YOY. Now based on end-September oil it is +40 percent.</li>
<li>Our bullish case for EM is in large part based on improved pricing power in energy and material sectors.</li>
<li>OPEC action assists supply rebalance and steepens the path for inflation expectations and Fed action.</li>
<li>Strong oil supports our yield-based bullish view on banks and insurers.</li>
</ol><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/013/995/original/animal_spirits3.png?1475197603" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="13995"></figure><h2>Oil</h2>…

Executive Summary
OPEC production cut plan supports our macro thesis of an oil-led, inflation expectations uplift.
Our original WTI peak base effect was +20 percent YOY. Now based on end-September oil it is +40 percent.
Our bullish case for EM is in large part based on improved pricing power in energy and material sectors.
OPEC action assists supply rebalance and steepens the path for inflation expectations and Fed action.
Strong oil supports our yield-based bullish view on banks and insurers.
Oil…

ANIMAL SPIRITS Update: OPEC Fuels Base Effect - Oil, Inflation & The Fed, Yields, Financials and EM

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

<p>Oil symbolically broke $40 to the downside US time Monday, though many stocks last week stubbornly refused to read the tea leaves from the physical market continuing to break down.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12491" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12491:1">Freeport Mcmoran Inc (FCX US)</a>, for its part, was lucky and managed to announce a US$1.5bn common stock offering to continue delevering its B/S. But where does this commodities complex correction lead us from here? What is the most likely pattern to test for?</p><p>I think we need to be ready for a test to the downside and…</p>

Oil symbolically broke $40 to the downside US time Monday, though many stocks last week stubbornly refused to read the tea leaves from the physical market continuing to break down.  Freeport Mcmoran Inc (FCX US), for its part, was lucky and managed to announce a US$1.5bn common stock offering to continue delevering its B/S. But where does this commodities complex correction lead us from here? What is the most likely pattern to test for?I think we need to be ready for a test to the downside and…

Is The Commodities Complex Breaking Down All Over Again?

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

<p>Fullerton India Credit Company Ltd, a locally registered Non-Banking Finance Company (NBFC) owned by Temasek via Fullerton Singapore, plans to issue masala bonds to international investors in order to diversify its funding sources. Masala bonds are rupee denominated offshore bonds quite similar to dim sum bonds issued by Chinese companies. After HDFC, the largest mortgage lender in India, became the first company last week to successfully place a Masala Bond issue more companies are eyeing this…</p>

Fullerton India Credit Company Ltd, a locally registered Non-Banking Finance Company (NBFC) owned by Temasek via Fullerton Singapore, plans to issue masala bonds to international investors in order to diversify its funding sources. Masala bonds are rupee denominated offshore bonds quite similar to dim sum bonds issued by Chinese companies. After HDFC, the largest mortgage lender in India, became the first company last week to successfully place a Masala Bond issue more companies are eyeing this…

Fullerton India to Issue Masala Bonds for Local Ops; Investors in Yield Hunt Chase Cos for Issuance

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

<p>A surprisingly poor employment report in the US became the central focus among investors across the globe on Friday. In May the US added just 38,000 jobs, well under the expected 156,000.</p><p>A poor jobs report has triggered widespread concerns that a weak external environment is starting to feed through to infect the US economy. These concerns reflect the risk of what we define as a ‘bad de-polarization’ playing out in the global economy.</p><p>Currently the global economy is extremely polarized (there is a large divergence between the health of the worlds strongest and weakest economies). As the global economy de-polarizes the health of the weakest economies will rise to converge with that of the strongest economies (a good de-polarization) or vice versa.</p>

A surprisingly poor employment report in the US became the central focus among investors across the globe on Friday. In May the US added just 38,000 jobs, well under the expected 156,000.A poor jobs report has triggered widespread concerns that a weak external environment is starting to feed through to infect the US economy. These concerns reflect the risk of what we define as a ‘bad de-polarization’ playing out in the global economy.Currently the global economy is extremely polarized (there is a large divergence between the health of the worlds strongest and weakest economies). As the global economy de-polarizes the health of the weakest economies will rise to converge with that of the strongest economies (a good de-polarization) or vice versa.

Bad Jobs Report Good For Some EMs, Great For Others

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Macroeconomics

<div class="content-highlight"><ul>
<li>Every time the Chinese authorities try to wean the economy off monetary stimulus they are forced back into an ever diminishing cycle.  2015 is no exception.</li>
<li>The latest data releases support the view of a stimulus led recovery in China.  Kicking the 'reform' can down the road for a little while.</li>
<li>Unfortunately the impulse value of each stimulus is diminishing.</li>
<li>Due to the precipitous declines in commodities markets prior to this round of stimulus the commodities markets will behave differently from…</li>
</ul></div>


Every time the Chinese authorities try to wean the economy off monetary stimulus they are forced back into an ever diminishing cycle.  2015 is no exception.
The latest data releases support the view of a stimulus led recovery in China.  Kicking the 'reform' can down the road for a little while.
Unfortunately the impulse value of each stimulus is diminishing.
Due to the precipitous declines in commodities markets prior to this round of stimulus the commodities markets will behave differently from…


Brazil

Vale S.A. produces and sells iron ore, pellets, manganese, alloys, gold, nickel, copper, kaolin, bauxite, alumina, aluminum, and potash. The Company is based in Brazil, where it owns and operates railroads and maritime terminals.

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Vale (VALE US)

ANIMAL SPIRITS Update: OPEC Fuels Base Effect - Oil, Inflation & The Fed, Yields, Financials and EM

Executive Summary OPEC production cut plan supports our macro thesis of an oil-led, inflation expectations uplift. Our original WTI peak base...

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

Is The Commodities Complex Breaking Down All Over Again?

Oil symbolically broke $40 to the downside US time Monday, though many stocks last week stubbornly refused to read the tea leaves from the physical...

Charles De Trenck

Fullerton India to Issue Masala Bonds for Local Ops; Investors in Yield Hunt Chase Cos for Issuance

Fullerton India Credit Company Ltd, a locally registered Non-Banking Finance Company (NBFC) owned by Temasek via Fullerton Singapore, plans to...

Asia Advisors

Bad Jobs Report Good For Some EMs, Great For Others

A surprisingly poor employment report in the US became the central focus among investors across the globe on Friday. In May the US added just...

David Riedel

China - Late 2012-Early 2013 Repeat

Every time the Chinese authorities try to wean the economy off monetary stimulus they are forced back into an ever diminishing cycle. 2015 is no...

Mark Artherton

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