Materials| Industrials |Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Vale is guiding for stable iron ore production of 325–335 Mt in 2025 and steady copper and nickel growth, supported by disciplined capex and portfolio optimization.</li>
<li>While dam reparation exposures are fully provisioned, execution risks around ongoing environmental obligations and community projects remain a critical overhang.</li>
<li>The stock appears cheap at ~3.1x EV/EBITDA but looks relatively expensive on a reserve-based valuation, reflecting the market’s cautious view on long-term growth visibility and external risks.</li>
</ul>


Vale is guiding for stable iron ore production of 325–335 Mt in 2025 and steady copper and nickel growth, supported by disciplined capex and portfolio optimization.
While dam reparation exposures are fully provisioned, execution risks around ongoing environmental obligations and community projects remain a critical overhang.
The stock appears cheap at ~3.1x EV/EBITDA but looks relatively expensive on a reserve-based valuation, reflecting the market’s cautious view on long-term growth visibility and external risks.


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Vale S.A.’s first-quarter 2025 earnings report offers a nuanced view of its performance amid dynamic market conditions and strategic initiatives.</li><li>Starting with an increase in iron ore sales by 4% year-on-year to 66 million tons, the company effectively managed its integrated supply chain despite a 4% decrease in production caused by higher rainfall in critical mining regions.</li><li>Vale continues to focus on operational excellence, as evidenced by the S11D project achieving its highest production for the first quarter, driven by asset reliability improvements.</li></ul>

Vale S.A.’s first-quarter 2025 earnings report offers a nuanced view of its performance amid dynamic market conditions and strategic initiatives.Starting with an increase in iron ore sales by 4% year-on-year to 66 million tons, the company effectively managed its integrated supply chain despite a 4% decrease in production caused by higher rainfall in critical mining regions.Vale continues to focus on operational excellence, as evidenced by the S11D project achieving its highest production for the first quarter, driven by asset reliability improvements.

Vale S.A.: Nickel and Base Metals Optimization to Sustain Long-Term Profitability Across Its Nickel Operations!

<ul><li>Vale S.A.'s third quarter 2024 results present a mixed picture, with notable progress and some ongoing challenges.</li><li>New CEO Gustavo Pimenta highlighted the company's strategic vision, focusing on operational efficiencies, portfolio enhancements, and stakeholder trust.</li><li>These pillars aim to drive Vale back to a competitive position, emphasizing safety, cost efficiency, and quality.</li></ul>

Vale S.A.'s third quarter 2024 results present a mixed picture, with notable progress and some ongoing challenges.New CEO Gustavo Pimenta highlighted the company's strategic vision, focusing on operational efficiencies, portfolio enhancements, and stakeholder trust.These pillars aim to drive Vale back to a competitive position, emphasizing safety, cost efficiency, and quality.

Vale S.A.: Cost Reduction & Efficiency in Iron Ore Production Driving Our Bullishness! - Major Drivers

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>We initiated on the iron ore space recently with a short-term bullish call (see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/iron-ore-primer-understanding-the-drivers-of-the-market-ways-to-play-the-sector" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:136452" rel="noopener">Iron Ore Primer: Understanding The Drivers Of the Market, Ways To Play The Sector</a>). </li>
<li>Check out our initiation on  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mount-gibson-mgx-au-iron-ore-pure-play-77-of-the-mkt-cap-in-cash-0-5x-ev-ebitda-with-catalysts" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:136941" rel="noopener">Mount Gibson (MGX AU): Iron Ore Pure Play, 77% of the Mkt Cap in Cash, 0.5x EV-EBITDA With Catalysts</a> ).</li>
<li>Iron ore has a more short-term upside as it bounces off the cost curve in its three-year band (95-130 USD/ton), while China has demonstrated an abundant appetite for restocking. </li>
</ul>


We initiated on the iron ore space recently with a short-term bullish call (see: Iron Ore Primer: Understanding The Drivers Of the Market, Ways To Play The Sector). 
Check out our initiation on  Mount Gibson (MGX AU): Iron Ore Pure Play, 77% of the Mkt Cap in Cash, 0.5x EV-EBITDA With Catalysts ).
Iron ore has a more short-term upside as it bounces off the cost curve in its three-year band (95-130 USD/ton), while China has demonstrated an abundant appetite for restocking. 


Iron Ore Comes Roaring Back! BHP-Anglo, VALE, FMG: What's Hot In the Space

<ul><li>Vale's Q2 2024 earnings reflected a mixture of operational accomplishments and ongoing challenges.</li><li>A significant positive was the advancement in safety measures, particularly the decharacterization of the B3/B4 dam, which was completed one year ahead of schedule.</li><li>This achievement is part of Vale's broader commitment to eliminate all upstream dams in Brazil, enhancing safety standards.</li></ul>

Vale's Q2 2024 earnings reflected a mixture of operational accomplishments and ongoing challenges.A significant positive was the advancement in safety measures, particularly the decharacterization of the B3/B4 dam, which was completed one year ahead of schedule.This achievement is part of Vale's broader commitment to eliminate all upstream dams in Brazil, enhancing safety standards.

Vale S.A.: Enhanced Production Capacity Through Strategic Asset Expansion & Other Major Drivers

Brazil

Vale S.A. produces and sells iron ore, pellets, manganese, alloys, gold, nickel, copper, kaolin, bauxite, alumina, aluminum, and potash. The Company is based in Brazil, where it owns and operates railroads and maritime terminals.

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Vale (VALE US)

Vale: A valuation paradox

Vale expects stable iron ore production by 2025, with growth in copper and nickel, but faces risks from environmental obligations and community...

Rahul Jain

Vale S.A.: Nickel and Base Metals Optimization to Sustain Long-Term Profitability Across Its Nickel Operations!

Vale S.A.’s first-quarter 2025 earnings report offers a nuanced view of its performance amid dynamic market conditions and strategic...

Baptista Research

Vale S.A.: Cost Reduction & Efficiency in Iron Ore Production Driving Our Bullishness! - Major Drivers

Vale S.A.'s third quarter 2024 results present a mixed picture, with notable progress and some ongoing challenges. New CEO Gustavo Pimenta...

Baptista Research

Iron Ore Comes Roaring Back! BHP-Anglo, VALE, FMG: What's Hot In the Space

We summarize newsflow in the iron ore market and our take on the BHP-Anglo deal. We also summarize the production reports of Vale/FMG and Champion...

Sameer Taneja

Vale S.A.: Enhanced Production Capacity Through Strategic Asset Expansion & Other Major Drivers

Vale's Q2 2024 earnings reflected a mixture of operational accomplishments and ongoing challenges. A significant positive was the advancement in...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Vale: A valuation paradox

​Vale expects stable iron ore production by 2025, with growth in copper and nickel, but faces risks from environmental obligations and community...

Rahul Jain

Vale S.A.: Nickel and Base Metals Optimization to Sustain Long-Term Profitability Across Its Nickel Operations!

Vale S.A.’s first-quarter 2025 earnings report offers a nuanced view of its performance amid dynamic market conditions and strategic...

Baptista Research

Vale S.A.: Cost Reduction & Efficiency in Iron Ore Production Driving Our Bullishness! - Major Drivers

Vale S.A.'s third quarter 2024 results present a mixed picture, with notable progress and some ongoing challenges. New CEO Gustavo Pimenta...

Baptista Research

Iron Ore Comes Roaring Back! BHP-Anglo, VALE, FMG: What's Hot In the Space

We summarize newsflow in the iron ore market and our take on the BHP-Anglo deal. We also summarize the production reports of Vale/FMG and Champion...

Sameer Taneja

Vale S.A.: Enhanced Production Capacity Through Strategic Asset Expansion & Other Major Drivers

Vale's Q2 2024 earnings reflected a mixture of operational accomplishments and ongoing challenges. A significant positive was the advancement in...

Baptista Research

Vale expects stable iron ore production by 2025, with growth in copper and nickel, but faces risks from environmental obligations and community...