Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>HFD for US small banks shows USD2.6bn new CRE loans in week vs USD3.4bn new total loans</li>
<li>US small banks have CRE loans at 2.9x capital vs 2.5x in recent periods and less provisions</li>
<li>Large term deposits are up from 8.5% to 14.2% of loans from trough to most recent week </li>
</ul>


HFD for US small banks shows USD2.6bn new CRE loans in week vs USD3.4bn new total loans
US small banks have CRE loans at 2.9x capital vs 2.5x in recent periods and less provisions
Large term deposits are up from 8.5% to 14.2% of loans from trough to most recent week 


US Small Banks - New HFD Shows 76% of New Loans Are CRE in Recent Week | CRE Loans at 2.9x Capital

<ul>
<li>1Q23 earnings were 130% of consensus annualized, 2Q23 is 104% consensus annualized</li>
<li>USB saw its quarterly income/FY23 consensus move from 27% to 21% from 1Q23 to 2Q23</li>
<li>COLB, WAL are at lowest FY23 consensus achievement rates: 21% and 41% during 1H23</li>
</ul>


1Q23 earnings were 130% of consensus annualized, 2Q23 is 104% consensus annualized
USB saw its quarterly income/FY23 consensus move from 27% to 21% from 1Q23 to 2Q23
COLB, WAL are at lowest FY23 consensus achievement rates: 21% and 41% during 1H23


US Banks - Qtly Profit Falls As % Of FY23 Consensus, Some More Than Others: USB, PB, COL, WAL, AEX

<ul>
<li>High-Frequency data for US mortgage loan applications, lending and LLR are a red flag</li>
<li>US large banks' loan growth is decelerating sharply, and LLR rising fast for many weeks</li>
<li>Banks face low or negative net interest income growth, as credit costs rise substantially</li>
</ul>


High-Frequency data for US mortgage loan applications, lending and LLR are a red flag
US large banks' loan growth is decelerating sharply, and LLR rising fast for many weeks
Banks face low or negative net interest income growth, as credit costs rise substantially


US Banks - HFD Mtg Vol Near 1990 Level, Net Int Inc Delta Can Be Negative & With Surging Provisions

<ul>
<li>High frequency data shows large US banks reporting loan growth at 2.5% YoY at 19 July week</li>
<li>This is far lower than where it was earlier this year at 8.2% YoY at 18 January week</li>
<li>Loan loss reserves for large banks are up ~18.3% YoY in each of the past 3 weeks</li>
</ul>


High frequency data shows large US banks reporting loan growth at 2.5% YoY at 19 July week
This is far lower than where it was earlier this year at 8.2% YoY at 18 January week
Loan loss reserves for large banks are up ~18.3% YoY in each of the past 3 weeks


US Banks - Loan Growth Moving Lower With Rising Provisions, Not Great Combination

Research Firm with a Qualitative Overlay, Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Research Firm with a Qualitative Overlay

Quantitative fund & research firm with a qualitative overlay. 

Our coverage: General U.S. with a skew towards the primary sector. 

Methods: Smart Beta/Factor Pricing, Neural Networks, Street Gossip, and Common Sense.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>U.S. Bancorp stock remains severely overvalued, according to a top-down analysis.</li>
<li>The firm's non-interest-bearing income is facing troubles as mortgage applications and corporate activity is slowing down.</li>
<li>The analysis contradicts a bearish outlook, but the observation is isolated and carries little substance.</li>
</ul>


U.S. Bancorp stock remains severely overvalued, according to a top-down analysis.
The firm's non-interest-bearing income is facing troubles as mortgage applications and corporate activity is slowing down.
The analysis contradicts a bearish outlook, but the observation is isolated and carries little substance.


United States

U.S. Bancorp is a diversified financial services company that provides lending and depository services, cash management, foreign exchange and trust and investment management services.  The Company also provides credit card services, mortgage banking, insurance, brokerage, and leasing.  U.S Bancorp operates in the Midwest and Western United States.

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US Bancorp (USB US)

US Small Banks - New HFD Shows 76% of New Loans Are CRE in Recent Week | CRE Loans at 2.9x Capital

New HFD shows new CRE loans at 76% of total new loans, for small US banks. Their CRE loans/capital is rising and LLR/CRE loans is low, falling. Off...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Qtly Profit Falls As % Of FY23 Consensus, Some More Than Others: USB, PB, COL, WAL, AEX

US bank profit downgrades can be big, looking at FY23 consensus earnings achievement rates in 1Q23, 2Q23. Many banks are at less than 50% of FY23...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - HFD Mtg Vol Near 1990 Level, Net Int Inc Delta Can Be Negative & With Surging Provisions

High frequency data in the US suggests bank earnings will be weak in coming quarters. Weekly mtg loan vol data nearing 1990 levels, weekly loan...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Loan Growth Moving Lower With Rising Provisions, Not Great Combination

Large US banks show far lower loan growth in new weekly data to 19 July with high growth in loan loss reserves. Still relatively high growth in CRE...

Daniel Tabbush

U.S. Bancorp: Still Severely Overvalued

The firm's non-interest-bearing income is facing troubles as mortgage applications and corporate activity is slowing down.

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

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