IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/upstart-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29727:1" rel="noopener">Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST US)</a> is both a consumer Internet brand as well an online loan origination platform. </li>
<li>Upstart is a rare fintech that has established credibility by delivering high growth with profits and cash generation. The healthy 2022 outlook underscores the long-term potential. </li>
<li>While the ongoing market volatility is a near-term risk, the tech sell-off presents an opportunity to gain exposure to a good story at an attractive valuation. </li>
</ul>



Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST US) is both a consumer Internet brand as well an online loan origination platform. 
Upstart is a rare fintech that has established credibility by delivering high growth with profits and cash generation. The healthy 2022 outlook underscores the long-term potential. 
While the ongoing market volatility is a near-term risk, the tech sell-off presents an opportunity to gain exposure to a good story at an attractive valuation. 


Upstart Holdings: Fast-Growing, Profitable, Cash Generative with Share Buybacks

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>We believe that Upstart's share price has been excessively oversold since October 2021. Since its highs in October 2021, Upstart's share price has declined significantly by nearly 72%.</li>
<li>The combination of buying back shares, more attractive valuations, and a much stronger sales growth than its peers is likely to result in Upstart outperforming the market this year.</li>
<li>Our base case valuation of Upstart is implied market cap of $13.8 billion and target price of $165 per share, which is 47% higher than current share price.</li>
</ul>


We believe that Upstart's share price has been excessively oversold since October 2021. Since its highs in October 2021, Upstart's share price has declined significantly by nearly 72%.
The combination of buying back shares, more attractive valuations, and a much stronger sales growth than its peers is likely to result in Upstart outperforming the market this year.
Our base case valuation of Upstart is implied market cap of $13.8 billion and target price of $165 per share, which is 47% higher than current share price.


Upstart Holdings: Focus on the Share Buyback & Outstanding Growth of AI Driven Lending Platform

Equity Analyst, Investi Analyst

Investi Analyst

Equity Analyst

Investment Entrepreneur / Equity Analyst.

<ul>
<li>Upstart is down 73% from its all-time highs after delivering a robust earnings report that saw revenue grow over 200%.</li>
<li>There are 5 key factors that will likely continue to drag down the stock as the Nasdaq continues its downtrend.</li>
<li>The big question for investors is to rigorously evaluate if Upstart is providing investors with excellent value right now for a company that is growing over 200% and highly profitable</li>
</ul>


Upstart is down 73% from its all-time highs after delivering a robust earnings report that saw revenue grow over 200%.
There are 5 key factors that will likely continue to drag down the stock as the Nasdaq continues its downtrend.
The big question for investors is to rigorously evaluate if Upstart is providing investors with excellent value right now for a company that is growing over 200% and highly profitable


Upstart: 73% Down - Here Are 5 Factors Driving The Stock Down

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moneylion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34686:1" rel="noopener">MoneyLion (ML US)</a> , one of the fastest growing fintech companies, went public via SPAC in February and shares were listed on the NYSE in September. The company merged with SPAC Fusion Acquisition at combined enterprise value of ~$2.4 billion, PIPE investors acquired 25 million Class A shares for $10.00 per share and private placement was closed prior to close of business combination. Therefore, MoneyLion has raised $250 million from investors such as BlackRock and private equity firm Apollo Global Management. Citibank, Broadhaven and FT Partners served as financial advisors to MoneyLion while J.P. Morgan Securities acted as financial advisor to Fusion.</p>

MoneyLion (ML US) , one of the fastest growing fintech companies, went public via SPAC in February and shares were listed on the NYSE in September. The company merged with SPAC Fusion Acquisition at combined enterprise value of ~$2.4 billion, PIPE investors acquired 25 million Class A shares for $10.00 per share and private placement was closed prior to close of business combination. Therefore, MoneyLion has raised $250 million from investors such as BlackRock and private equity firm Apollo Global Management. Citibank, Broadhaven and FT Partners served as financial advisors to MoneyLion while J.P. Morgan Securities acted as financial advisor to Fusion.

MoneyLion: The Downside Looks Limited and Valuations Remain Attractive

<header id="article-header_2-0"><p data-tooltip="Khadija Khartit is a strategy, investment, and funding expert, and an educator of fintech and strategic finance in top universities. She has been an investor, entrepreneur, and advisor for more than 25 years. She is a FINRA Series 7, 63, and 66 license holder." data-inline-tooltip="true" data-tooltip-position-x="left" data-tooltip-position-y="top">Founded in 2013, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moneylion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34686:1" rel="noopener">MoneyLion (ML US)</a> is a fintech company that provides lending, mobile banking, cash advances, financial advisory, and investment services including crypto trading to its users. The company aims to empower mobile banking and other financial products through machine learning and artificial intelligence technologies. Since its launch in 2013, MoneyLion has engaged with nearly 8.7 million users. </p></header><p data-tooltip="Khadija Khartit is a strategy, investment, and funding expert, and an educator of fintech and strategic finance in top universities. She has been an investor, entrepreneur, and advisor for more than 25 years. She is a FINRA Series 7, 63, and 66 license holder." data-inline-tooltip="true" data-tooltip-position-x="left" data-tooltip-position-y="top">In February 2021,<a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/mobile-bank-moneylion-go-public-via-blank-check-merger-29-bln-deal-2021-02-12/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> MoneyLion</a> agreed to go public through a merger with a blank-check firm Fusion Acquisition Corp <a href="https://www.reuters.com/companies/FUSE.N" target="_blank" rel="noopener">(FUSE.N)</a>, that would value the equity of the combined company at $2.9 billion. As of 26 October 2021, MoneyLion's market cap is $1.4 billion. MoneyLion completed its public listing on the NYSE in September 2021.</p><div class="content-highlight">
<h2>Valuation</h2>
<p>Our base case valuation of MoneyLion over the next year is $9.5 per share, which would be 59% higher than current share price. Our base case valuation is based on EV/S of 7.5x using our estimated sales of $257 million in 2022. We took a 10% discount to the company's guidance sales in 2022 to be more conservative. </p>
<p>The EV/S multiple of 7.5x is about 50% discount to the average EV/S multiple of its peers, which is mainly due to its lower operating margins and size effect. However, if the company is able to generate higher sales growth and more sizeable improvement to operating margins than its peers in the next several quarters, this valuation discount is likely to decline considerably. </p>
<p>Unlike in 2H 2020 to 1Q 2021 when there was a much positive sentiment on SPACs and SPAC related mergers, this sentiment has worsened considerably in the past six months. This is probably one of the reasons why the stock has taken such a beating since going public in the past month. We would argue that the fundamentals of the company is improving and the financial metrics of MoneyLion remain solid. Therefore, we would be a Buyer of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moneylion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34686:1" rel="noopener">MoneyLion (ML US)</a> shares at current depressed levels.</p>
</div>

Founded in 2013, MoneyLion (ML US) is a fintech company that provides lending, mobile banking, cash advances, financial advisory, and investment services including crypto trading to its users. The company aims to empower mobile banking and other financial products through machine learning and artificial intelligence technologies. Since its launch in 2013, MoneyLion has engaged with nearly 8.7 million users. In February 2021, MoneyLion agreed to go public through a merger with a blank-check firm Fusion Acquisition Corp (FUSE.N), that would value the equity of the combined company at $2.9 billion. As of 26 October 2021, MoneyLion's market cap is $1.4 billion. MoneyLion completed its public listing on the NYSE in September 2021.
Valuation
Our base case valuation of MoneyLion over the next year is $9.5 per share, which would be 59% higher than current share price. Our base case valuation is based on EV/S of 7.5x using our estimated sales of $257 million in 2022. We took a 10% discount to the company's guidance sales in 2022 to be more conservative. 
The EV/S multiple of 7.5x is about 50% discount to the average EV/S multiple of its peers, which is mainly due to its lower operating margins and size effect. However, if the company is able to generate higher sales growth and more sizeable improvement to operating margins than its peers in the next several quarters, this valuation discount is likely to decline considerably. 
Unlike in 2H 2020 to 1Q 2021 when there was a much positive sentiment on SPACs and SPAC related mergers, this sentiment has worsened considerably in the past six months. This is probably one of the reasons why the stock has taken such a beating since going public in the past month. We would argue that the fundamentals of the company is improving and the financial metrics of MoneyLion remain solid. Therefore, we would be a Buyer of MoneyLion (ML US) shares at current depressed levels.


MoneyLion - An Oversold Fintech Stock Following a SPAC Merger

United States

Upstart Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform to improve access of credit while reducing the risk and costs of lending for bank partners.

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Upstart Holdings (UPST US)

Upstart: 73% Down - Here Are 5 Factors Driving The Stock Down

Upstart is down 73% from its all-time highs after delivering a robust earnings report that saw revenue grow over 200%. There are 5 key factors...

Investi Analyst

MoneyLion: The Downside Looks Limited and Valuations Remain Attractive

MoneyLion shares look undervalued relative to peers and our 12-month price target of $9.00 per share implies ~50% upside

Andrei Zakharov

MoneyLion - An Oversold Fintech Stock Following a SPAC Merger

MoneyLion is an oversold fintech stock following a SPAC merger. Our base case valuation of MoneyLion over the next year is $9.5 per share, which...

Douglas Kim

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Upstart Holdings: Fast-Growing, Profitable, Cash Generative with Share Buybacks

Upstart is a rare fintech that has established credibility by delivering high growth with profits and cash generation. The tech sell-off is an...

Arun George

Upstart Holdings: Focus on the Share Buyback & Outstanding Growth of AI Driven Lending Platform

The combination of buying back shares, more attractive valuations, and a much stronger sales growth than its peers is likely to result in Upstart...

Douglas Kim

Upstart: 73% Down - Here Are 5 Factors Driving The Stock Down

Upstart is down 73% from its all-time highs after delivering a robust earnings report that saw revenue grow over 200%. There are 5 key factors...

Investi Analyst

MoneyLion: The Downside Looks Limited and Valuations Remain Attractive

MoneyLion shares look undervalued relative to peers and our 12-month price target of $9.00 per share implies ~50% upside

Andrei Zakharov

MoneyLion - An Oversold Fintech Stock Following a SPAC Merger

MoneyLion is an oversold fintech stock following a SPAC merger. Our base case valuation of MoneyLion over the next year is $9.5 per share, which...

Douglas Kim