Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Commodities (ex. precious metals) and global yields are on the rise as the US dollar (DXY) deteriorates. Additionally, EM equities (EEM-US) display a bullish RS reversal relative to MSCI ACWI. </li>
<li>These are all important risk-on signals for global equities that continue to support our neutral yet constructive outlook. We expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead.</li>
<li>Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a shift in favor of value.</li>
</ul>


Commodities (ex. precious metals) and global yields are on the rise as the US dollar (DXY) deteriorates. Additionally, EM equities (EEM-US) display a bullish RS reversal relative to MSCI ACWI. 
These are all important risk-on signals for global equities that continue to support our neutral yet constructive outlook. We expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead.
Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a shift in favor of value.


Value Sectors Take The Lead On Rising Global Yields; Buying Energy and Financials

Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The power of the rate of change of things is very important here. Look at money creation for example. The extreme volatility in credit creation is a result of Covid-policies</li><li>we may be in for a 2019-like contraction in USD reserves in the financial system already before year-end.</li><li>I am even tempted to say that you should both buy the USD and duration (in most currencies) with an arm and a leg already now.. And equities overall..</li></ul>

The power of the rate of change of things is very important here. Look at money creation for example. The extreme volatility in credit creation is a result of Covid-policieswe may be in for a 2019-like contraction in USD reserves in the financial system already before year-end.I am even tempted to say that you should both buy the USD and duration (in most currencies) with an arm and a leg already now.. And equities overall..

Founder

Olivier Desbarres

Exacting. Excellent. Exceeding. Exemplary.

4X Global Research

4X Global Research was founded in 2017 to provide institutional and corporate clients with the substantive research, high-quality analysis and thoughtful insight on Emerging and G20 economies and financial markets they need to make informed and timely decisions and gain an edge in their investments.

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Consensus forecast is for another set of record-breaking data US CPI-inflation figures but they have been volatile since Spring 2021 and thus hard to predict. </li>
<li>US companies have rapidly increased prices, particularly for goods, because they have had to (rising input costs) and importantly because they have been able to. </li>
<li>Cutting inflation in 2022 will be challenging for Fed. We continue to think that short-end Treasury yields will rise further, with volatility spikes to remain a reasonably frequent occurrence.</li>
</ul>


Consensus forecast is for another set of record-breaking data US CPI-inflation figures but they have been volatile since Spring 2021 and thus hard to predict. 
US companies have rapidly increased prices, particularly for goods, because they have had to (rising input costs) and importantly because they have been able to. 
Cutting inflation in 2022 will be challenging for Fed. We continue to think that short-end Treasury yields will rise further, with volatility spikes to remain a reasonably frequent occurrence.


US: High Inflation, Rising Yields, Repeat

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have made a bullish yield argument from the 10yr 1.37% zone to clear the key 1.68% breakout barrier. A yield spike will pressure tech at NDX macro trendline support.</li>
<li>NDX long term trendline make or break support lies at 15,300. We expect a break in later Q1 but if broken now it will bring forward a negative risk cycle.</li>
<li>Our macro 10yr yield rise to the 2%+ region for a top correlated with a peak in the equity cycle in late Q1. Rate sensitive ration undercurrents.</li>
</ul>


We have made a bullish yield argument from the 10yr 1.37% zone to clear the key 1.68% breakout barrier. A yield spike will pressure tech at NDX macro trendline support.
NDX long term trendline make or break support lies at 15,300. We expect a break in later Q1 but if broken now it will bring forward a negative risk cycle.
Our macro 10yr yield rise to the 2%+ region for a top correlated with a peak in the equity cycle in late Q1. Rate sensitive ration undercurrents.


Yield Breakout and NDX LT Trendline Inflection for US and Global Risk

Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

<ul>
<li>The performance of EM rates this year should be driven primarily by the behavior of US rates and domestic monetary policy, with fiscal policy playing less of a role.</li>
<li>Among the outliers in 2021, the moves in Indonesia, Poland, and Hungary were appropriate, but Brazil looks vulnerable. Instead of an outright payer in Brazil though, I like a steepener.</li>
<li>Besides Brazil, I like steepening trades in Russia, Czechia, and Colombia as curves should bull-steepen this year. Another one to track this year with a similar idea is Chile.</li>
</ul>


The performance of EM rates this year should be driven primarily by the behavior of US rates and domestic monetary policy, with fiscal policy playing less of a role.
Among the outliers in 2021, the moves in Indonesia, Poland, and Hungary were appropriate, but Brazil looks vulnerable. Instead of an outright payer in Brazil though, I like a steepener.
Besides Brazil, I like steepening trades in Russia, Czechia, and Colombia as curves should bull-steepen this year. Another one to track this year with a similar idea is Chile.


Gems Among Stones: EM Rates’ 2021 Performance and What to Expect in 2022

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Value Sectors Take The Lead On Rising Global Yields; Buying Energy and Financials

Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a...

Vermilion Research

Vikings At The Gate

The power of the rate of change of things is very important here. Look at money creation for example. The extreme volatility in credit creation is...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

US: High Inflation, Rising Yields, Repeat

International energy/commodity prices and corporates largely hold key to CPI-inflation problem and Fed can only but further push up Treasury yields...

Olivier Desbarres

Yield Breakout and NDX LT Trendline Inflection for US and Global Risk

We have made a bullish yield argument from the 10yr 1.37% zone to clear the key 1.68% breakout barrier. A yield spike will pressure tech at NDX...

Thomas Schroeder

Gems Among Stones: EM Rates’ 2021 Performance and What to Expect in 2022

Among the outliers in 2021, Brazil looks vulnerable. Instead of an outright payer though, I like a curve steepening trade in Brazil as I do in...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)