Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Indexes continue to violate our key supports as the Russell 2000 (IWM) broke below $208, the S&amp;P 500 broke below 4495, and the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW) broke below $109.</li>
<li>This type of damage paints a bearish picture at the index level, and will take some time to repair.</li>
<li>Now that key supports have been violated, we are monitoring for oversold conditions that could mark a bottom, and it is possible that was yesterday (Jan. 24).</li>
</ul>


Indexes continue to violate our key supports as the Russell 2000 (IWM) broke below $208, the S&amp;P 500 broke below 4495, and the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW) broke below $109.
This type of damage paints a bearish picture at the index level, and will take some time to repair.
Now that key supports have been violated, we are monitoring for oversold conditions that could mark a bottom, and it is possible that was yesterday (Jan. 24).


U.S. Equity Strategy: Index Supports Breaking; Upgrading and Buying Utilities

Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>In my monthly recap note, I provide a performance update of my weekly trade recommendations in emerging markets FX and rates.</li>
<li>Of the total of 31 trade recommendations made so far, I have recommended closing 21 of which 17 were in the money.</li>
<li>I also go over my open trade recommendations as well as those that I have closed recently.</li>
</ul>


In my monthly recap note, I provide a performance update of my weekly trade recommendations in emerging markets FX and rates.
Of the total of 31 trade recommendations made so far, I have recommended closing 21 of which 17 were in the money.
I also go over my open trade recommendations as well as those that I have closed recently.


Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations in FX and Rates – January 2022

<ul>
<li>The risk of US yields continuing to rise is high especially with inflation not having peaked yet, the Fed potentially reducing its balance sheet, and real rates still negative.</li>
<li>The high volatility in US rates does not bode well for EM rates due to their high correlation even though EM local debt is overall cheap based on most metrics.</li>
<li>Until the volatility in US rates subsides, it is best to focus on cross-country and curve trades in EM, with my preference for curve steepening trades in several countries.</li>
</ul>


The risk of US yields continuing to rise is high especially with inflation not having peaked yet, the Fed potentially reducing its balance sheet, and real rates still negative.
The high volatility in US rates does not bode well for EM rates due to their high correlation even though EM local debt is overall cheap based on most metrics.
Until the volatility in US rates subsides, it is best to focus on cross-country and curve trades in EM, with my preference for curve steepening trades in several countries.


What to Expect of EM Rates When Expecting US Rates to Stay Volatile?

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market continues to send a mix of risk-on and risk-off signals, though most of the risk-on signals are centered around value Sectors.</li>
<li>Value Sectors such as Energy, Financials, Manufacturing/Industrials, and Materials are currently our favorite areas for investment, and also Consumer Staples.</li>
<li>Some of our big picture supports are being violated, including the Russell MicroCaps (IWC) which is breaking below $134 as the Russell 2000 (IWM) tests support at $207.50-$208.</li>
</ul>


The market continues to send a mix of risk-on and risk-off signals, though most of the risk-on signals are centered around value Sectors.
Value Sectors such as Energy, Financials, Manufacturing/Industrials, and Materials are currently our favorite areas for investment, and also Consumer Staples.
Some of our big picture supports are being violated, including the Russell MicroCaps (IWC) which is breaking below $134 as the Russell 2000 (IWM) tests support at $207.50-$208.


U.S. Equity Strategy: Market Sending Mixed Signals; Stick With Value; Energy Stocks Highlighted

Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Quantitative Tightening is now old news: everybody and their mother are talking about it, and headlines about QT are everywhere.</li><li><p>While QT sets the direction of travel to be very different from QE, there are four main pillows the US will be using to engineer a softer landing.</p></li><li>In a nutshell: watch the announcement on the pace of QT, the updated Treasury issuance strategy and how repo rates and credit spreads trade.</li></ul>

Quantitative Tightening is now old news: everybody and their mother are talking about it, and headlines about QT are everywhere.While QT sets the direction of travel to be very different from QE, there are four main pillows the US will be using to engineer a softer landing.In a nutshell: watch the announcement on the pace of QT, the updated Treasury issuance strategy and how repo rates and credit spreads trade.

The Fed's QT Explained (No, it's Not The End Of The World)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Index Supports Breaking; Upgrading and Buying Utilities

Indexes continue to violate our key supports on the Russell 2000 (IWM), the S&P 500, and the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW). Most opportunities...

Vermilion Research

Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations in FX and Rates – January 2022

I provide a performance update of all my trade recommendations along with discussing the open trades. I have closed 21 of the 31 trades recommended...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

What to Expect of EM Rates When Expecting US Rates to Stay Volatile?

The high volatility in US rates does not bode well for EM rates due to their high correlation even though EM local debt is overall cheap. Cross...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

U.S. Equity Strategy: Market Sending Mixed Signals; Stick With Value; Energy Stocks Highlighted

The market continues to send mixed signals, though most of the risk-on signals are centered around value Sectors such as Energy, Financials,...

Vermilion Research

The Fed's QT Explained (No, it's Not The End Of The World)

Quantitative Tightening is now old news: everybody and their mother are talking about it, and headlines about QT are everywhere.

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)