Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our key "lines in the sand" were tested last week, including 4257 on the S&amp;P 500, $334 on QQQ, 33,250 on the DJIA, and $102.50 on the S&amp;P 600 (IJR).</li>
<li>After a brief dip below these levels, buyers immediately stepped up and reclaimed these supports. It was a clear win for the bulls (for now).</li>
<li>Attractive and actionable Groups highlighted include fertilizer (ag chemicals), aerospace/defense, and shipping.</li>
</ul>


Our key "lines in the sand" were tested last week, including 4257 on the S&amp;P 500, $334 on QQQ, 33,250 on the DJIA, and $102.50 on the S&amp;P 600 (IJR).
After a brief dip below these levels, buyers immediately stepped up and reclaimed these supports. It was a clear win for the bulls (for now).
Attractive and actionable Groups highlighted include fertilizer (ag chemicals), aerospace/defense, and shipping.


Volatility & Consolidation Continues; Buying Ag Chemicals, Aerospace/Defense, and Shipping Stocks

Stock Market News, Outlooks, and Top Picks, Cappuccino Finance

Cappuccino Finance

Stock Market News, Outlooks, and Top Picks

Cappuccino Finance, provides Financial vignettes for your cappuccino break!

Fun & informational articles to read in 10 min or less.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, re-emerging virus variants, interest rate hikes…one thing after another keeps disrupting the market.</li><li>The common belief is that war is good for the economy because the increased level of government spending boosts the economy</li><li>In the case of the current Russia-Ukraine conflict, the most immediate impact on the U.S. economy will be the oil price</li></ul>

Supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, re-emerging virus variants, interest rate hikes…one thing after another keeps disrupting the market.The common belief is that war is good for the economy because the increased level of government spending boosts the economyIn the case of the current Russia-Ukraine conflict, the most immediate impact on the U.S. economy will be the oil price

Mid Feb 2022 - Additional Blow to Market Sentiment

House of Market Insights, Market Radar

Market Radar

House of Market Insights

Quick market updates and lot of ideas for your investments from a multi-asset portfolio manager working for a family office.

Quick Market Updates

<ul><li>After almost 2 years of rising stock prices, and falling yields, 2022 started in a frustrating way.</li><li><p>Most of the equity indices are negative YTD, and after the big fall in the first 3 weeks of the year, the reaction has been weak. Indeed many indices have been flat in the last weeks.</p></li><li><p>Of course markets are now focused on 3 main themes: earnings, inflation and geopolitics.</p></li></ul>

After almost 2 years of rising stock prices, and falling yields, 2022 started in a frustrating way.Most of the equity indices are negative YTD, and after the big fall in the first 3 weeks of the year, the reaction has been weak. Indeed many indices have been flat in the last weeks.Of course markets are now focused on 3 main themes: earnings, inflation and geopolitics.

Founder

Olivier Desbarres

Exacting. Excellent. Exceeding. Exemplary.

4X Global Research

4X Global Research was founded in 2017 to provide institutional and corporate clients with the substantive research, high-quality analysis and thoughtful insight on Emerging and G20 economies and financial markets they need to make informed and timely decisions and gain an edge in their investments.

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Markets focussed on the risk that likely Federal Reserve and global central bank policy rate hikes and monetary policy tightening will weigh on equities and implications for Dollar. </li>
<li>But there's also risk that downturn in US equities would weigh on US consumer confidence and demand and in turn inflationary pressures and see the Fed pausing its hiking cycle.</li>
<li>It may be different this time round, given very negative Fed real policy rate, but in the previous three Fed rate hiking cycles US equities were generally trending higher.</li>
</ul>


Markets focussed on the risk that likely Federal Reserve and global central bank policy rate hikes and monetary policy tightening will weigh on equities and implications for Dollar. 
But there's also risk that downturn in US equities would weigh on US consumer confidence and demand and in turn inflationary pressures and see the Fed pausing its hiking cycle.
It may be different this time round, given very negative Fed real policy rate, but in the previous three Fed rate hiking cycles US equities were generally trending higher.


Fed Hikes Not Immune from Equity Collapse

<ul>
<li>The short-term bullish reversal discussed last week is officially underway now that the S&amp;P 500 has reclaimed its 200-day MA, but we are not yet out of the woods.</li>
<li>We discuss what we are watching to determine whether this is just an oversold bounce that resolves lower, or if the S&amp;P 500 is headed back to all-time highs.</li>
<li>The prior two trading days appears to be the start of a short-term mean reversion, where beaten down growth areas (ARKK, software, biotech, etc.) are outperforming.</li>
</ul>


The short-term bullish reversal discussed last week is officially underway now that the S&amp;P 500 has reclaimed its 200-day MA, but we are not yet out of the woods.
We discuss what we are watching to determine whether this is just an oversold bounce that resolves lower, or if the S&amp;P 500 is headed back to all-time highs.
The prior two trading days appears to be the start of a short-term mean reversion, where beaten down growth areas (ARKK, software, biotech, etc.) are outperforming.


Not Out Of The Woods; SPX Back Above The 200-Day MA; Growth Catching A Bid; Buying Energy, Biotech

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Volatility & Consolidation Continues; Buying Ag Chemicals, Aerospace/Defense, and Shipping Stocks

Moving forward we continue to expect more volatility and consolidation between 4257 and 4590-4595 on the S&P 500, and between $334 and $367 on the...

Vermilion Research

Mid Feb 2022 - Additional Blow to Market Sentiment

It almost seems like the stock investor just can’t catch a break these days. One thing after another keeps disrupting the market.

Cappuccino Finance

A frustrating month for markets

After almost 2 years of rising stock prices, and falling yields, 2022 started in a frustrating way. Most of the equity indices are negative YTD,...

Market Radar

Fed Hikes Not Immune from Equity Collapse

Direction of US equities and their impact on consumption and ultimately inflation will colour timing & magnitude of Fed hikes & management of its...

Olivier Desbarres

Not Out Of The Woods; SPX Back Above The 200-Day MA; Growth Catching A Bid; Buying Energy, Biotech

The short-term bullish reversal that we referenced last week is officially underway now that the S&P 500 has reclaimed its 200-day MA, but we are...

Vermilion Research

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