Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Notwithstanding the economic uncertainties, with the Fed’s path better defined now than a few weeks ago, I expect the volatility of rates to peak in the coming weeks.</li>
<li>Uncertainty around the Fed's rate hikes has been spilling over to the monetary policy paths of EM countries even though many of them have been raising rates since last year.</li>
<li>If the US rates volatility falls as I expect, then it will be supportive of the short ends of EM rate curves in Latin American and Central European countries.</li>
</ul>


Notwithstanding the economic uncertainties, with the Fed’s path better defined now than a few weeks ago, I expect the volatility of rates to peak in the coming weeks.
Uncertainty around the Fed's rate hikes has been spilling over to the monetary policy paths of EM countries even though many of them have been raising rates since last year.
If the US rates volatility falls as I expect, then it will be supportive of the short ends of EM rate curves in Latin American and Central European countries.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are getting the test of the lows we have been calling for, following some indiscriminate selling late last week which produced back-to-back 80%+ downside volume days on the NYSE.</li>
<li>There can certainly be more 80%-90%+ downside days that take the indexes to new lows.</li>
<li>We need to see back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside day on the NYSE in order to have confidence that a major market bottom is in place</li>
</ul>


We are getting the test of the lows we have been calling for, following some indiscriminate selling late last week which produced back-to-back 80%+ downside volume days on the NYSE.
There can certainly be more 80%-90%+ downside days that take the indexes to new lows.
We need to see back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside day on the NYSE in order to have confidence that a major market bottom is in place


Panic Selling Achieved, Now Waiting for Panic Buying; Major Indexes At/Near Support

House of Market Insights, Market Radar

Market Radar

House of Market Insights

Quick market updates and lot of ideas for your investments from a multi-asset portfolio manager working for a family office.

Quick Market Updates

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The rebound in the second half of March it has already been forgotten by the market. The principal equity indices are going down again, and the bond yields have reached very high level.</li><li>BofA: the long Treasury Trade - Recently the Bank of America strategist team posted a note in which they suggest to go long on U.S. Treasury.</li><li>Earnings: the moment of truth?  - In the last few weeks there have been a lot of earnings revisions, mostly to the down side.</li></ul>

The rebound in the second half of March it has already been forgotten by the market. The principal equity indices are going down again, and the bond yields have reached very high level.BofA: the long Treasury Trade - Recently the Bank of America strategist team posted a note in which they suggest to go long on U.S. Treasury.Earnings: the moment of truth?  - In the last few weeks there have been a lot of earnings revisions, mostly to the down side.

Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

<ul>
<li>In the ‘80s, independent economist Yardeni coined the term ‘‘bond vigilantes’’ to refer to fixed income investors disciplining authorities for running inflationary fiscal and monetary policies and ultimately restoring order through the bond market.</li>
<li>In 2022, we are witnessing the first preliminary signs of the return of the global macro vigilantes</li>
<li>Amongst others, George Soros is an eminent member of this selected group of macro investors who challenge policymakers across countries and relentlessly chase regime-change narratives once they see a good opportunity</li>
</ul>


In the ‘80s, independent economist Yardeni coined the term ‘‘bond vigilantes’’ to refer to fixed income investors disciplining authorities for running inflationary fiscal and monetary policies and ultimately restoring order through the bond market.
In 2022, we are witnessing the first preliminary signs of the return of the global macro vigilantes
Amongst others, George Soros is an eminent member of this selected group of macro investors who challenge policymakers across countries and relentlessly chase regime-change narratives once they see a good opportunity


<ul>
<li>Rates volatility remains high with the latest boost coming from the rising probability of a global recession as possible outcomes of the ongoing Fed tightening and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.</li>
<li>After inverting briefly, the US 2s10s slope has started steepening, which should continue despite recessionary risks as the Fed's balance sheet reduction should weigh heavily in the long end.</li>
<li>With the US 5s10s switching to steepening from flattening, the case for similar steepening is strong in a few emerging countries that are ahead in terms of monetary tightening.</li>
</ul>


Rates volatility remains high with the latest boost coming from the rising probability of a global recession as possible outcomes of the ongoing Fed tightening and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
After inverting briefly, the US 2s10s slope has started steepening, which should continue despite recessionary risks as the Fed's balance sheet reduction should weigh heavily in the long end.
With the US 5s10s switching to steepening from flattening, the case for similar steepening is strong in a few emerging countries that are ahead in terms of monetary tightening.


Global Rate Curves (Ex-Asia) At an Inflection Point

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

How Are Fed’s Rate Hikes Impacting EM?

I expect the volatility of rates to peak in the coming weeks, which should be supportive of the short ends of EM rate curves in Latin American and...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Panic Selling Achieved, Now Waiting for Panic Buying; Major Indexes At/Near Support

Now that we have seen indiscriminate panic selling, we are now looking for panic buying in order to have confidence that a major market bottom is...

Vermilion Research

Earnings: are positive surprises over?

The rebound in the second half of March it has already been forgotten by the market. The principal equity indices are going down again, and the...

Market Radar

The Macro Vigilantes Are Waking Up

‘‘We're in a brave new world of excesses in fiscal and monetary policy, and that's where the bond vigilantes thrive’’ Ed Yardeni In the ‘80s,...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Global Rate Curves (Ex-Asia) At an Inflection Point

With the US 5s10s switching to steepening from flattening, the case for similar steepening is strong in a few emerging countries that are ahead in...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)