Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally we have been discussing since our Sept. 27 Compass report has begun.</li>
<li>Over half of the Sectors and all the major indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA, and S&amp;P 600 Small Caps) display bullish 2+ month inflections.</li>
<li>As referenced last week, we expect the aforementioned indexes to rally to their 200-day MAs; longer-term, this is still a bear market until they can break above their 200-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally we have been discussing since our Sept. 27 Compass report has begun.
Over half of the Sectors and all the major indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA, and S&amp;P 600 Small Caps) display bullish 2+ month inflections.
As referenced last week, we expect the aforementioned indexes to rally to their 200-day MAs; longer-term, this is still a bear market until they can break above their 200-day MAs.


Another Bear Market Rally Begins; Indexes and Sectors With Bullish 2+ Month Inflections

<ul>
<li>In our Sept.27 Compass, with the S&amp;P 500 down 11.5% during the prior two weeks, we discussed our belief that the market indexes could see a bounce/pause pause in selling.</li>
<li>The SPX and IWM have paused, and we cannot rule out a bear market rally if the 200-week MA (3590-3600) holds on the SPX, and if $162-163 holds on IWM.</li>
<li>Longer-Term, this is still a bear market until the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 can break above their respective 200-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


In our Sept.27 Compass, with the S&amp;P 500 down 11.5% during the prior two weeks, we discussed our belief that the market indexes could see a bounce/pause pause in selling.
The SPX and IWM have paused, and we cannot rule out a bear market rally if the 200-week MA (3590-3600) holds on the SPX, and if $162-163 holds on IWM.
Longer-Term, this is still a bear market until the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 can break above their respective 200-day MAs.


Bear Market Until Proven Otherwise; Upgrading Industrials to Overweight; Buys Within Industrials

<ul>
<li>In last week's Compass (Sept. 27) we discussed our belief that market indexes could see a bounce or pause in selling, citing numerous oversold indexes/Sectors that were testing critical supports.</li>
<li>Supports included 3636 on the S&amp;P 500, $269 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $162 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>Supports held, and early indications suggest a bear market rally is brewing (at minimum), helped by short-term bearish engulfing patterns on the DXY and 10-year Treasury yield last Wednesday.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Compass (Sept. 27) we discussed our belief that market indexes could see a bounce or pause in selling, citing numerous oversold indexes/Sectors that were testing critical supports.
Supports included 3636 on the S&amp;P 500, $269 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $162 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
Supports held, and early indications suggest a bear market rally is brewing (at minimum), helped by short-term bearish engulfing patterns on the DXY and 10-year Treasury yield last Wednesday.


Another Bear Market Rally Brewing?; Stick With Biotech and Construction/Engineering Names

<ul>
<li>In last week's Macro Vision report, we noted breaks below 3900 on the SPX and $293 on the QQQ opened the door for a test of YTD lows, or worse.</li>
<li>We are now getting a test of the YTD lows of 3636 on the S&amp;P 500 and $269 on QQQ</li>
<li>With so many indexes and key Sectors currently oversold and testing support, we could certainly see a bounce/pause at current levels.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Macro Vision report, we noted breaks below 3900 on the SPX and $293 on the QQQ opened the door for a test of YTD lows, or worse.
We are now getting a test of the YTD lows of 3636 on the S&amp;P 500 and $269 on QQQ
With so many indexes and key Sectors currently oversold and testing support, we could certainly see a bounce/pause at current levels.


Bloomberg Commodity Index Breaks 2.5-Year Uptrend; Key Indexes/Sectors Testing Support at YTD Lows

<ul>
<li>Key supports that we highlighted in last week's Compass (Sept. 7) held strong, including 3900-3910 on the SPX, $293 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), $177-178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>We got the bounce where bulls needed to hold, but these levels could be tested again following this morning's hotter-than-expected CPI report.</li>
<li>As long as the aforementioned supports continue to hold, we continue to believe the lows are likely in for this bear market -- something we noted throughout late-July and August.</li>
</ul>


Key supports that we highlighted in last week's Compass (Sept. 7) held strong, including 3900-3910 on the SPX, $293 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), $177-178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
We got the bounce where bulls needed to hold, but these levels could be tested again following this morning's hotter-than-expected CPI report.
As long as the aforementioned supports continue to hold, we continue to believe the lows are likely in for this bear market -- something we noted throughout late-July and August.


Supports to Be Tested Again Following CPI? Stick With Solar Stocks, Buying Manufacturing Names

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Another Bear Market Rally Begins; Indexes and Sectors With Bullish 2+ Month Inflections

The bear market rally we have been discussing since Sept. 27 has begun, with over half of the Sectors and all the major indexes $SPX $QQQ $NDX...

Vermilion Research

Bear Market Until Proven Otherwise; Upgrading Industrials to Overweight; Buys Within Industrials

Bear market rally remains in play if the 200-week MA (3590-3600) holds on $SPX, and if $162-$163 holds on $IWM. Longer-term, this is still a bear...

Vermilion Research

Another Bear Market Rally Brewing?; Stick With Biotech and Construction/Engineering Names

Early indications suggest another bear market rally in $SPX, and potentially that the lows are in, helped by short-term bearish engulfing patterns...

Vermilion Research

Bloomberg Commodity Index Breaks 2.5-Year Uptrend; Key Indexes/Sectors Testing Support at YTD Lows

Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP violating 2.5-yr uptrend; a break below $32.50 would send commodity prices much lower, & would be deflationary. $SPX...

Vermilion Research

Supports to Be Tested Again Following CPI? Stick With Solar Stocks, Buying Manufacturing Names

Supports discussed in recent weeks have held, including 3900 on $SPX, $293 on $QQQ, and $177-178 on $IWM. These levels could be tested again...

Vermilion Research

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