House of Market Insights, Market Radar

Market Radar

House of Market Insights

Quick market updates and lot of ideas for your investments from a multi-asset portfolio manager working for a family office.

Quick Market Updates

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The rebound in the second half of March it has already been forgotten by the market. The principal equity indices are going down again, and the bond yields have reached very high level.</li><li>BofA: the long Treasury Trade - Recently the Bank of America strategist team posted a note in which they suggest to go long on U.S. Treasury.</li><li>Earnings: the moment of truth?  - In the last few weeks there have been a lot of earnings revisions, mostly to the down side.</li></ul>

The rebound in the second half of March it has already been forgotten by the market. The principal equity indices are going down again, and the bond yields have reached very high level.BofA: the long Treasury Trade - Recently the Bank of America strategist team posted a note in which they suggest to go long on U.S. Treasury.Earnings: the moment of truth?  - In the last few weeks there have been a lot of earnings revisions, mostly to the down side.

Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

<ul>
<li>In the ‘80s, independent economist Yardeni coined the term ‘‘bond vigilantes’’ to refer to fixed income investors disciplining authorities for running inflationary fiscal and monetary policies and ultimately restoring order through the bond market.</li>
<li>In 2022, we are witnessing the first preliminary signs of the return of the global macro vigilantes</li>
<li>Amongst others, George Soros is an eminent member of this selected group of macro investors who challenge policymakers across countries and relentlessly chase regime-change narratives once they see a good opportunity</li>
</ul>


In the ‘80s, independent economist Yardeni coined the term ‘‘bond vigilantes’’ to refer to fixed income investors disciplining authorities for running inflationary fiscal and monetary policies and ultimately restoring order through the bond market.
In 2022, we are witnessing the first preliminary signs of the return of the global macro vigilantes
Amongst others, George Soros is an eminent member of this selected group of macro investors who challenge policymakers across countries and relentlessly chase regime-change narratives once they see a good opportunity


<ul>
<li>I am not sure everybody has grasped yet how important was the message Jerome Powell sent yesterday during the FOMC press conference.</li>
<li>While market commentators are focusing mostly on the mere 25 bps hike and the lack of details on Quantitative Tightening, I believe they are missing the point: the forward guidance was very hawkish, and very clearly so.</li>
<li>
Powell is becoming more and more hawkish as time goes by. I identified 4 key hawkish messages he conveyed
</li>
</ul>


I am not sure everybody has grasped yet how important was the message Jerome Powell sent yesterday during the FOMC press conference.
While market commentators are focusing mostly on the mere 25 bps hike and the lack of details on Quantitative Tightening, I believe they are missing the point: the forward guidance was very hawkish, and very clearly so.

Powell is becoming more and more hawkish as time goes by. I identified 4 key hawkish messages he conveyed



The Fed is Hitting The Brakes: Are You Wearing your Seatbelt?

<ul>
<li>We are at important global macro crossroads: Central Banks are trying to remove accommodation from markets to tame inflationary pressures right at a point when the impulse of global growth has lost momentum</li>
<li>Over the last few weeks, bond yields have dropped and yield curves continued to flatten across the board</li>
<li>But the most interesting moves are visible once you decompose nominal yields into inflation break-evens and real yields, and focus on forward looking metrics and probability distributions</li>
</ul>


We are at important global macro crossroads: Central Banks are trying to remove accommodation from markets to tame inflationary pressures right at a point when the impulse of global growth has lost momentum
Over the last few weeks, bond yields have dropped and yield curves continued to flatten across the board
But the most interesting moves are visible once you decompose nominal yields into inflation break-evens and real yields, and focus on forward looking metrics and probability distributions


Stock Market News, Outlooks, and Top Picks, Cappuccino Finance

Cappuccino Finance

Stock Market News, Outlooks, and Top Picks

Cappuccino Finance, provides Financial vignettes for your cappuccino break!

Fun & informational articles to read in 10 min or less.

<ul><li>Supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, re-emerging virus variants, interest rate hikes…one thing after another keeps disrupting the market.</li><li>The common belief is that war is good for the economy because the increased level of government spending boosts the economy</li><li>In the case of the current Russia-Ukraine conflict, the most immediate impact on the U.S. economy will be the oil price</li></ul>

Supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, re-emerging virus variants, interest rate hikes…one thing after another keeps disrupting the market.The common belief is that war is good for the economy because the increased level of government spending boosts the economyIn the case of the current Russia-Ukraine conflict, the most immediate impact on the U.S. economy will be the oil price

Mid Feb 2022 - Additional Blow to Market Sentiment

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Earnings: are positive surprises over?

The rebound in the second half of March it has already been forgotten by the market. The principal equity indices are going down again, and the...

Market Radar

The Macro Vigilantes Are Waking Up

‘‘We're in a brave new world of excesses in fiscal and monetary policy, and that's where the bond vigilantes thrive’’ Ed Yardeni In the ‘80s,...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

The Fed is Hitting The Brakes: Are You Wearing your Seatbelt?

I am not sure everybody has grasped yet how important was the message Jerome Powell sent yesterday during the FOMC press conference.

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

The Bears are Knocking at The Door

We are at important global macro crossroads: Central Banks are trying to remove accommodation from markets to tame inflationary pressures right at...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Mid Feb 2022 - Additional Blow to Market Sentiment

It almost seems like the stock investor just can’t catch a break these days. One thing after another keeps disrupting the market.

Cappuccino Finance

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