Economist (US Macro), RDQ Economics

Conrad DeQuadros

Economist (US Macro)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
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Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
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The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

Credit

As was widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee maintained a 1% to 1¼% fed funds rate target range today on an unanimous vote.  The Fed also announced that the balance sheet normalization plan, detailed at the June FOMC meeting, will be initiated in October.  That plan features an initial run off cap of $10 billion per month, with $6 billion on Treasuries and $4 billion on Mortgage-Backed Securities.  The Treasury run cap will rise $6 billion every three months to a peak of $30 billion…

As was widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee maintained a 1% to 1¼% fed funds rate target range today on an unanimous vote.  The Fed also announced that the balance sheet normalization plan, detailed at the June FOMC meeting, will be initiated in October.  That plan features an initial run off cap of $10 billion per month, with $6 billion on Treasuries and $4 billion on Mortgage-Backed Securities.  The Treasury run cap will rise $6 billion every three months to a peak of $30 billion…

Fed Still Sees One More Hike in 2017 and Is Starting Balance Sheet Wind Down in October

Technical Analyst - Global with an Asian focus, Aletheia Capital

Chris Roberts

Technical Analyst - Global with an Asian focus

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

Our base case remains that the 35-year decline in US interest rates is over, and while we do not expect a consistent uptrend in yield to occur, the risk is now for higher rates. In a historical context, the 2016 low in long-term US Bonds can be viewed as a massive overshoot and a rally back to 4.00-5.00% could be seen as a reversion to some sort of rates normalcy.This year we have been waiting for the 10-year US T-Note to partially retrace the 2016 surge in rates, the decline in yield from the December 2016 high of 2.59% has finally reached the 38-71% retracement support area for that advance, where the correction should end.

Our base case remains that the 35-year decline in US interest rates is over, and while we do not expect a consistent uptrend in yield to occur, the risk is now for higher rates. In a historical context, the 2016 low in long-term US Bonds can be viewed as a massive overshoot and a rally back to 4.00-5.00% could be seen as a reversion to some sort of rates normalcy.This year we have been waiting for the 10-year US T-Note to partially retrace the 2016 surge in rates, the decline in yield from the December 2016 high of 2.59% has finally reached the 38-71% retracement support area for that advance, where the correction should end. 

U.S. core CPI prices were in line with forecasts, rising 0.2% in August (the gain was just shy of 0.3% as the unrounded increase was 0.248%).  The year-over-year core CPI inflation rate was unchanged at 1.7% in the month, while these prices have risen at a slightly faster pace of 1.9% (annualized) over the last three months.  Overall CPI prices rose 0.4% in August, higher than expected and the 12-month headline inflation rate picked up to 1.9% from 1.7%.<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>August</td>
<td>July</td>
<td>June</td>
<td>3-mth chg. a.r.</td>
<td>12-mth chg.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>…</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>

U.S. core CPI prices were in line with forecasts, rising 0.2% in August (the gain was just shy of 0.3% as the unrounded increase was 0.248%).  The year-over-year core CPI inflation rate was unchanged at 1.7% in the month, while these prices have risen at a slightly faster pace of 1.9% (annualized) over the last three months.  Overall CPI prices rose 0.4% in August, higher than expected and the 12-month headline inflation rate picked up to 1.9% from 1.7%.

August
July
June
3-mth chg. a.r.
12-mth chg.


…



String of CPI 'Disappointments' Ended in August

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF / Technical Analysis

Long Europe/Short EM pairWe have been allocating more to Europe given recent upside breakout in parts of Europe. We can also see Emerging market price action starting to struggle after extended gains amid big upside moves in the US and Europe. Is this perhaps linked to odds of an upcoming USD low.Here we look at ideal DXY  low and turn target near 90.50-00, assuming we don't pop above 92 near term and fade back.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/033/378/original/DXY%20for%20rel%20story.png?1505280413" data-smartkarma-image-id="33378"></figure><div class="content-caption">DXY turn zone</div>We have made a case where a weaker Euro would ignite a powerful rally in…

Long Europe/Short EM pairWe have been allocating more to Europe given recent upside breakout in parts of Europe. We can also see Emerging market price action starting to struggle after extended gains amid big upside moves in the US and Europe. Is this perhaps linked to odds of an upcoming USD low.Here we look at ideal DXY  low and turn target near 90.50-00, assuming we don't pop above 92 near term and fade back.DXY turn zoneWe have made a case where a weaker Euro would ignite a powerful rally in…

The Euro currency is nearing the tail end of a rather linear rise and starting to show signs of exhaustion. Before we get to the macro Euro chart that pinpoints a top zone, we wanted to add some color to the DXY break below 92 pivot support and the price action path we see unfolding in coming weeks.Our base case for the 10 year treasury yield is noted below. We have touted a futures topside target in the 128 region as the immediate level that will cap the yield slide and price top. Unless we can…

The Euro currency is nearing the tail end of a rather linear rise and starting to show signs of exhaustion. Before we get to the macro Euro chart that pinpoints a top zone, we wanted to add some color to the DXY break below 92 pivot support and the price action path we see unfolding in coming weeks.Our base case for the 10 year treasury yield is noted below. We have touted a futures topside target in the 128 region as the immediate level that will cap the yield slide and price top. Unless we can…

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Fed Still Sees One More Hike in 2017 and Is Starting Balance Sheet Wind Down in October

As was widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee maintained a 1% to 1¼% fed funds rate target range today on an unanimous vote. The Fed...

RDQ Economics

US Interest Rates: Boiling a Frog

Our base case remains that the 35-year decline in US interest rates is over, and while we do not expect a consistent uptrend in yield to occur, the...

Chris Roberts

String of CPI 'Disappointments' Ended in August

U.S. core CPI prices were in line with forecasts, rising 0.2% in August (the gain was just shy of 0.3% as the unrounded increase was 0.248%). The...

RDQ Economics

Long Europe/Short EM Pair Bet

Long Europe/Short EM pairWe have been allocating more to Europe given recent upside breakout in parts of Europe. We can also see Emerging market...

Thomas Schroeder

This Euro Barrier to Halt Rise

The Euro currency is nearing the tail end of a rather linear rise and starting to show signs of exhaustion. Before we get to the macro Euro chart...

Thomas Schroeder

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52-week Range

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