Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) / Equity Bottom-Up

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H)

<ul>
<li>All the business fundamentals continue to trend in the right direction</li>
<li>The sector has sold off with the general commodity sell-off</li>
<li>Investors not giving the benefit of the doubt to future oil demand</li>
</ul>


All the business fundamentals continue to trend in the right direction
The sector has sold off with the general commodity sell-off
Investors not giving the benefit of the doubt to future oil demand


Recent Sell-Off in Tanker Stocks Provides an Opportunity in Cosco Shipping Energy - 1138.HK

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>“Strong” non-farm payrolls number a catalyst for another hit to commodities</li>
<li>Oil positioning is now very supportive for prices with non-commercial buying levels close to  five-year lows.</li>
<li>Copper may have more short-term downside with speculative interest still high</li>
</ul>


“Strong” non-farm payrolls number a catalyst for another hit to commodities
Oil positioning is now very supportive for prices with non-commercial buying levels close to  five-year lows.
Copper may have more short-term downside with speculative interest still high


"Wham, Bam, Thank You Ma'am" – Commodities Get Slammed

<ul>
<li>Recent signs of economic weakness in the US is a believable narrative for the current weakness</li>
<li>OPEC +  announcement on increasing production adds to the noise</li>
<li>Weakness spreads from the energy sector to other commodity sectors</li>
</ul>


Recent signs of economic weakness in the US is a believable narrative for the current weakness
OPEC +  announcement on increasing production adds to the noise
Weakness spreads from the energy sector to other commodity sectors


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024<em> Int'l Compass</em>
</li>
<li>Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 <em>Int'l Compass. </em>This has bullish implications for ACWI</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024 Int'l Compass

Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 Int'l Compass. This has bullish implications for ACWI


Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

<ul>
<li>Federal Reserve “shocks’ markets by taking early rate cuts off the table</li>
<li>New tactics in the Russia/Ukraine war do not bode well for lower oil prices</li>
<li>China releases  Q1 GDP data  which is "stronger" than expected </li>
</ul>


Federal Reserve “shocks’ markets by taking early rate cuts off the table
New tactics in the Russia/Ukraine war do not bode well for lower oil prices
China releases  Q1 GDP data  which is "stronger" than expected 


Macro Overview: A Review of Recent Events Impacting Our Investment Themes

United States

United States Oil Fund LP is a Delaware limited partnership incorporated in the USA. The Fund's objective is to have changes in percentage terms of its unit's net asset value reflect the changes of the price of WTI Crude Oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma, as measured by changes in percentage terms of the price of the WTI Crude Oil futures contract on the NYMEX. The fund is a commodity pool.

Price Gauge
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United States Oil Fund LP (USO US)

Recent Sell-Off in Tanker Stocks Provides an Opportunity in Cosco Shipping Energy - 1138.HK

Despite positive business fundamentals, the sector is being dragged down by a general commodity sell-off as investors remain skeptical about...

Rikki Malik

"Wham, Bam, Thank You Ma'am" – Commodities Get Slammed

Strong non-farm payrolls lead to a continued drop in commodities, giving opportunities in precious metals and energy, but some sectors may have...

Rikki Malik

Is that It? Commodity Bull Market Over?

Recent US economic data points to potential weakness impacting energy and other commodity sectors, while OPEC+ actions muddies the waters.

Rikki Malik

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

Macro Overview: A Review of Recent Events Impacting Our Investment Themes

Weekly Macro Review -Federal Reserve rules out early rate cuts, Russia/Ukraine conflict impacts oil prices, China's Q1 GDP exceeds expectations.

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Recent Sell-Off in Tanker Stocks Provides an Opportunity in Cosco Shipping Energy - 1138.HK

​Despite positive business fundamentals, the sector is being dragged down by a general commodity sell-off as investors remain skeptical about...

Rikki Malik

"Wham, Bam, Thank You Ma'am" – Commodities Get Slammed

​Strong non-farm payrolls lead to a continued drop in commodities, giving opportunities in precious metals and energy, but some sectors may have...

Rikki Malik

Is that It? Commodity Bull Market Over?

Recent US economic data points to potential weakness impacting energy and other commodity sectors, while OPEC+ actions muddies the waters.

Rikki Malik

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

Macro Overview: A Review of Recent Events Impacting Our Investment Themes

Weekly Macro Review -​Federal Reserve rules out early rate cuts, Russia/Ukraine conflict impacts oil prices, China's Q1 GDP exceeds expectations.

Rikki Malik

Despite positive business fundamentals, the sector is being dragged down by a general commodity sell-off as investors remain skeptical about...

Strong non-farm payrolls lead to a continued drop in commodities, giving opportunities in precious metals and energy, but some sectors may have...

Weekly Macro Review -Federal Reserve rules out early rate cuts, Russia/Ukraine conflict impacts oil prices, China's Q1 GDP exceeds expectations.