Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We look at short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan in April to identify stocks/sectors that have seen the largest changes in each market.</li>
<li>Korea and Taiwan are showing a clear divergence with short notional increasing as the market moves lower, indicative of new shorts being initiated.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd-3388a037-4214-4997-b45d-520518cfdb57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a> has seen the largest short covering as the stock has tumbled in the last couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


We look at short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan in April to identify stocks/sectors that have seen the largest changes in each market.
Korea and Taiwan are showing a clear divergence with short notional increasing as the market moves lower, indicative of new shorts being initiated.

China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) has seen the largest short covering as the stock has tumbled in the last couple of weeks.


Asia Short Interest: Large Moves in April

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Novatek's revenue was NT$36.512bn in 1Q22, which was 38.5% YoY and 62.6% QoQ. It was 50.73%/36.73%/30.5% GM/OPM/NM in 1Q22, which was higher than our prior expectation of 43.6%/27.3%/22.3% in GM/OPM/NM.   </li>
<li>In our views, we revise up to be revenue/GM as NT$38.7bn/50.98% in 2Q20.</li>
<li>As the inflation, 5G, Russia-Ukraine war did change the landscape, the outlook seems not that so much worse in 2022.</li>
</ul>


Novatek's revenue was NT$36.512bn in 1Q22, which was 38.5% YoY and 62.6% QoQ. It was 50.73%/36.73%/30.5% GM/OPM/NM in 1Q22, which was higher than our prior expectation of 43.6%/27.3%/22.3% in GM/OPM/NM.   
In our views, we revise up to be revenue/GM as NT$38.7bn/50.98% in 2Q20.
As the inflation, 5G, Russia-Ukraine war did change the landscape, the outlook seems not that so much worse in 2022.


Novatek (3034.TT): 1Q22 Results/ 2Q22 Outlook- The Outlook Seems Better than Feared in 2022. .

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>UMC delivered a shining GM and outlook. The GM outlook is 45% in 2Q22, which beat our forecast.</li>
<li>UMC believes 22/28 nanometer will be a long-lasting node driven by applications, such as Wi-Fi 6, 6E, networking and OLED driver IC.</li>
<li>The overall business covered by LTA is close to 30%-40%.</li>
</ul>


UMC delivered a shining GM and outlook. The GM outlook is 45% in 2Q22, which beat our forecast.
UMC believes 22/28 nanometer will be a long-lasting node driven by applications, such as Wi-Fi 6, 6E, networking and OLED driver IC.
The overall business covered by LTA is close to 30%-40%.


UMC (UMC.US; 2303.TT): 1Q22 Results/2Q22 Preview- GM Beats Results and Forecast

<ul>
<li>The 1Q22 revenue beat the prior guidance, GM was in-line the guidance. The guidance is within our expectation in 2Q22.  </li>
<li>MediaTek believes they shall be on the right track to grow revenue 20% and the GM 48-50%, and MediaTek has a 3-year target to grow mid-teens percentage from 2022.</li>
<li>For shareholders, the board had approved NTD$37 for cash dividend in this year.</li>
</ul>


The 1Q22 revenue beat the prior guidance, GM was in-line the guidance. The guidance is within our expectation in 2Q22.  
MediaTek believes they shall be on the right track to grow revenue 20% and the GM 48-50%, and MediaTek has a 3-year target to grow mid-teens percentage from 2022.
For shareholders, the board had approved NTD$37 for cash dividend in this year.


MediaTek (2454.TT): 1Q22 Results/ 2Q22 Outlook-1Q Revenue Beat, 2Q22 Forecast Is in Line.

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 1Q22 revenue is NTD$63.4bn, and we estimate GM is ~40%, which is consistent with 1Q22 guidance.</li>
<li>We estimate the order is pretty much confirmed in UMC in 3Q22, which should be ~NTD$65bn.</li>
<li>UMC will increase about 10-15k/month of 28nm capacity in 2H22.</li>
</ul>


The 1Q22 revenue is NTD$63.4bn, and we estimate GM is ~40%, which is consistent with 1Q22 guidance.
We estimate the order is pretty much confirmed in UMC in 3Q22, which should be ~NTD$65bn.
UMC will increase about 10-15k/month of 28nm capacity in 2H22.


UMC (2303.TT): 2Q22 Preview and the Order Booking Is Pretty Much Full in 3Q22.

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

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United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)

Asia Short Interest: Large Moves in April

Short notional in Korea and Taiwan has been increasing as the market has been moving lower. Shorts on China Merchant Bank have been covered in...

Brian Freitas

Novatek (3034.TT): 1Q22 Results/ 2Q22 Outlook- The Outlook Seems Better than Feared in 2022. .

Novatek's revenue/GM/OPM/NM was NT$36.512bn50.73%/36.73%/30.5% in 1Q22. In our views, we revise up to be revenue/GM as NT$38.7bn/50.98% in 2Q20....

Patrick Liao

UMC (UMC.US; 2303.TT): 1Q22 Results/2Q22 Preview- GM Beats Results and Forecast

The GM outlook is 45% in 2Q22, which beat our forecast. UMC believes 22/28 nanometer will be a long-lasting node driven by applications, such as Wi...

Patrick Liao

MediaTek (2454.TT): 1Q22 Results/ 2Q22 Outlook-1Q Revenue Beat, 2Q22 Forecast Is in Line.

The 1Q22 revenue was beating the prior guidance, GM was in-line the guidance. The guidance is within our expectation in 2Q22. MediaTek believes to...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT): 2Q22 Preview and the Order Booking Is Pretty Much Full in 3Q22.

The 1Q22 revenue is NTD$63.4bn, and we estimate GM is ~40%, which is consistent with 1Q22 guidance. We estimate the order is pretty much confirmed...

Patrick Liao

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