Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The value vs. momentum factor divergence was 17 percentage points in EM last year - India as a highly-rated, defensive market was always likely to lag given that backdrop.</li>
<li>However, it has delivered a mediocre longer term return relative to the investor hype generated - the Sensex has seen only a 4.9% annualized return over the past five years and 2.7% over the past decade in USD.</li>
<li>That partly reflects the INR falling by a third since late 2011, underperforming even the commodity exposed IDR and MYR…</li>
</ul>


The value vs. momentum factor divergence was 17 percentage points in EM last year - India as a highly-rated, defensive market was always likely to lag given that backdrop.
However, it has delivered a mediocre longer term return relative to the investor hype generated - the Sensex has seen only a 4.9% annualized return over the past five years and 2.7% over the past decade in USD.
That partly reflects the INR falling by a third since late 2011, underperforming even the commodity exposed IDR and MYR…


Still Too Many Stale Bulls on India, as Structural Risks Deepen - 11th Jan 2017

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Dena Bank is a small PSU bank, at a similar size to better-known YES Bank. Dena Bank received a central bank capital injection a few months ago. And yet, it is coming to the market again for more capital. For anybody thinking that the NPL cycle has run its course in India, it's not the case. Of course, it isn’t only Dena Bank or PSU banks that are of concern; recent NPL formation at several private banks is also worrisome. India’s banks remain well entrenched in a nasty NPL cycle. Where some may…

Dena Bank is a small PSU bank, at a similar size to better-known YES Bank. Dena Bank received a central bank capital injection a few months ago. And yet, it is coming to the market again for more capital. For anybody thinking that the NPL cycle has run its course in India, it's not the case. Of course, it isn’t only Dena Bank or PSU banks that are of concern; recent NPL formation at several private banks is also worrisome. India’s banks remain well entrenched in a nasty NPL cycle. Where some may…

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Growth outlook remains tilted to the downside.</li><li> Fiscal and Monetary Policy have become confusing amidst a lack of meaningful structural reforms.</li><li>Room for further rate cuts on easing inflation and as demonetization hurts growth; downside risk to overvalued rupee with slow growth and rise in US yields.</li></ul>

Growth outlook remains tilted to the downside. Fiscal and Monetary Policy have become confusing amidst a lack of meaningful structural reforms.Room for further rate cuts on easing inflation and as demonetization hurts growth; downside risk to overvalued rupee with slow growth and rise in US yields.

Equity Bottom-Up

The INR is near all time lows. We are doubtful that people are aware that HDFC Bank has been the most aggressive bank in the country at increasing its foreign lending. This is not only at odds with the perception of the bank’s marginal lending focus, but it can result in meaningful new NPLs. This is especially the case where USD borrowings are used for INR investing.  It is also almost certainly the case that nearly all of this foreign lending is not consumer lending, which is purportedly what…

The INR is near all time lows. We are doubtful that people are aware that HDFC Bank has been the most aggressive bank in the country at increasing its foreign lending. This is not only at odds with the perception of the bank’s marginal lending focus, but it can result in meaningful new NPLs. This is especially the case where USD borrowings are used for INR investing.  It is also almost certainly the case that nearly all of this foreign lending is not consumer lending, which is purportedly what…

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

The global banking system is constructed around the accrual of interest. Credit cards, loans, and other financial products rely on interest rates and lending as one of their central features. In the Islamic world, however, where the very concept of interest is forbidden under Sharia – Islamic law – consumers looking to reconcile their banking needs with their faith are increasingly turning toward Islamic banking systems.

The global banking system is constructed around the accrual of interest. Credit cards, loans, and other financial products rely on interest rates and lending as one of their central features. In the Islamic world, however, where the very concept of interest is forbidden under Sharia – Islamic law – consumers looking to reconcile their banking needs with their faith are increasingly turning toward Islamic banking systems.

Consumer Finance in an Interest-Free World – An Overview of Islamic Banking

India

Union Bank of India Limited provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Company's activities include retail banking, commercial and personal banking, investment management, treasury and NRI services, cash management and assorted ATM facilities. Union Bank has an online tele-banking facility for all its core banking customers.

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Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN)

Still Too Many Stale Bulls on India, as Structural Risks Deepen - 11th Jan 2017

The value vs. momentum factor divergence was 17 percentage points in EM last year - India as a highly-rated, defensive market was always likely to...

Sean Maher

India's Dramatic NPL Acceleration

Dena Bank is a small PSU bank, at a similar size to better-known YES Bank. Dena Bank received a central bank capital injection a few months ago....

Daniel Tabbush

Marketnomix Insights : India Outlook

Growth outlook remains tilted to the downside. Fiscal and Monetary Policy have become confusing amidst a lack of meaningful structural...

Rajan Govil

Peeling the Layers at HDFC Bank

The INR is near all time lows. We are doubtful that people are aware that HDFC Bank has been the most aggressive bank in the country at increasing...

Daniel Tabbush

Consumer Finance in an Interest-Free World – An Overview of Islamic Banking

The global banking system is constructed around the accrual of interest. Credit cards, loans, and other financial products rely on interest rates...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

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