European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<div>
<p>2021 has been a good year to put on trades betting on discount tightening on Swedish holdcos, especially since May, and for Unilever. It has been generally mixed for other holdcos followed in these reports.</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>The current premium of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> vs.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-billiton-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21840:1" rel="noopener">Bhp Billiton (BLT LN)</a>  is 24.6% (vs. 20.5% at the end of September), against a 10-year average of 14.2%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/corp-financiera-alba-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21245:1" rel="noopener">Corp Financiera Alba Sa (ALB SM)</a> is trading at a 44.3% discount to NAV (down from 49% at the end of October).</li>
<li>The discount to NAV of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/groupe-bruxelles-lambert-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21332:1" rel="noopener">Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa (GBLB BB)</a> is 32.9%.</li>
<li>The discount in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heineken-holding-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21118:1" rel="noopener">Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA)</a> relative to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heineken-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21117:1" rel="noopener">Heineken NV (HEIA NA)</a> is 15.5% (12.3% as of 30 November) vs. an average of 10.5% for the last 15 years, and 7.9% for the last five years.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrivarden-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22395:1" rel="noopener">Industrivarden AB (INDUA SS)</a> C shares are trading at a 4.2% discount to NAV vs. 6.7% at the end of November.</li>
<li>The discount to NAV of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/investor-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22397:1" rel="noopener">Investor AB (INVEB SS)</a> B shares has tightened to 13.5% (vs. 19% of 30 October) in line with the vaccine driven market rally.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinnevik-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22407:1" rel="noopener">Investment Ab Kinnevik (KINVB SS)</a> B shares are trading at a 5.4% premium to NAV (vs a discount of 8.3% as of 30 September).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-dutch-shell-plc-98de2c77-62f2-46da-88eb-af269fb53d42" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28510:1" rel="noopener">Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS/B US)</a> “B” shares trade in New York at a discount of approximately 4.1% with respect to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-dutch-shell-plc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:792:1" rel="noopener">Royal Dutch Shell Plc (Adr) (RDS/A US)</a> “A” shares.</li>
</ul>
</div>


2021 has been a good year to put on trades betting on discount tightening on Swedish holdcos, especially since May, and for Unilever. It has been generally mixed for other holdcos followed in these reports.



The current premium of BHP Group (BHP AU) vs.  Bhp Billiton (BLT LN)  is 24.6% (vs. 20.5% at the end of September), against a 10-year average of 14.2%.

Corp Financiera Alba Sa (ALB SM) is trading at a 44.3% discount to NAV (down from 49% at the end of October).
The discount to NAV of Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa (GBLB BB) is 32.9%.
The discount in Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA) relative to Heineken NV (HEIA NA) is 15.5% (12.3% as of 30 November) vs. an average of 10.5% for the last 15 years, and 7.9% for the last five years.

Industrivarden AB (INDUA SS) C shares are trading at a 4.2% discount to NAV vs. 6.7% at the end of November.
The discount to NAV of Investor AB (INVEB SS) B shares has tightened to 13.5% (vs. 19% of 30 October) in line with the vaccine driven market rally.

Investment Ab Kinnevik (KINVB SS) B shares are trading at a 5.4% premium to NAV (vs a discount of 8.3% as of 30 September).

Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS/B US) “B” shares trade in New York at a discount of approximately 4.1% with respect to the Royal Dutch Shell Plc (Adr) (RDS/A US) “A” shares.



Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: December Report

<div>
<p>With this report, I continue the monthly series on some of the main European holding companies that I deem interesting to long/short clients.</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>The current premium of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> vs.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-billiton-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21840:1" rel="noopener">Bhp Billiton (BLT LN)</a>  is 23.5% (vs. 20.5% at the end of September), against a 10-year average of 14.2%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/corp-financiera-alba-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21245:1" rel="noopener">Corp Financiera Alba Sa (ALB SM)</a> is trading at a 43.8% discount to NAV (down from 49% at the end of October).</li>
<li>The discount to NAV of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/groupe-bruxelles-lambert-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21332:1" rel="noopener">Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa (GBLB BB)</a> is 30.8%.</li>
<li>The discount in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heineken-holding-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21118:1" rel="noopener">Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA)</a> relative to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heineken-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21117:1" rel="noopener">Heineken NV (HEIA NA)</a> is 12.3% (12.9% as of 30 October) vs. an average of 10.5% for the last 15 years, and 7.9% for the last five years.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrivarden-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22395:1" rel="noopener">Industrivarden AB (INDUA SS)</a> C shares are trading at a 6.7% discount to NAV vs. 5.9% at the end of November.</li>
<li>The discount to NAV of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/investor-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22397:1" rel="noopener">Investor AB (INVEB SS)</a> B shares has tightened to 15% (vs. 19% of 30 October) in line with the vaccine driven market rally.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinnevik-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22407:1" rel="noopener">Investment Ab Kinnevik (KINVB SS)</a> B shares are trading at a <strong>11.4% premium to NAV</strong> (vs a discount of 8.3% as of 30 September).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-dutch-shell-plc-98de2c77-62f2-46da-88eb-af269fb53d42" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28510:1" rel="noopener">Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS/B US)</a> “B” shares trade in New York at a discount of approximately 4.1% with respect to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-dutch-shell-plc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:792:1" rel="noopener">Royal Dutch Shell Plc (Adr) (RDS/A US)</a> “A” shares.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unilever-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22197:1" rel="noopener">Unilever PLC (ULVR LN)</a> said on 30 November that the company had completed the unification of its U.K. and Dutch listed entities.</li>
</ul>
</div>


With this report, I continue the monthly series on some of the main European holding companies that I deem interesting to long/short clients.



The current premium of BHP Group (BHP AU) vs.  Bhp Billiton (BLT LN)  is 23.5% (vs. 20.5% at the end of September), against a 10-year average of 14.2%.

Corp Financiera Alba Sa (ALB SM) is trading at a 43.8% discount to NAV (down from 49% at the end of October).
The discount to NAV of Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa (GBLB BB) is 30.8%.
The discount in Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA) relative to Heineken NV (HEIA NA) is 12.3% (12.9% as of 30 October) vs. an average of 10.5% for the last 15 years, and 7.9% for the last five years.

Industrivarden AB (INDUA SS) C shares are trading at a 6.7% discount to NAV vs. 5.9% at the end of November.
The discount to NAV of Investor AB (INVEB SS) B shares has tightened to 15% (vs. 19% of 30 October) in line with the vaccine driven market rally.

Investment Ab Kinnevik (KINVB SS) B shares are trading at a 11.4% premium to NAV (vs a discount of 8.3% as of 30 September).

Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS/B US) “B” shares trade in New York at a discount of approximately 4.1% with respect to the Royal Dutch Shell Plc (Adr) (RDS/A US) “A” shares.

Unilever PLC (ULVR LN) said on 30 November that the company had completed the unification of its U.K. and Dutch listed entities.



Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: November Report

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-dutch-shell-plc-48d2d58c-023d-485f-887d-f13ca5f049f6" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25197:1" rel="noopener">Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA NA)</a> retains <strong>two main listings</strong> in both London and Amsterdam, both are also traded at the NYSE as ADR:</p>
<ul>
<li>RDSA NA/RDSA LN, more liquid in Amsterdam
<ul>
<li>A shares, converted from Royal Dutch Petroleum, subject to Dutch withholding tax (15%).</li>
<li>Primarily listed in Amsterdam, with a secondary listing in London. </li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>RDSB NA/RDSB LN more liquid in London.
<ul>
<li>B shares, converted from Shell Transport &amp; Trading.</li>
<li>There is no Dutch withholding tax on dividends paid on Royal Dutch Shell Class B ordinary shares or Class B ADSs provided that such dividends are paid on the Dividend Access Share pursuant to the Dividend Access Mechanism.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>“B” shares trade in New York at a discount of <strong>approximately 5%</strong> with respect to the “A” shares.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>The reason is the effect of Dutch withholding taxes and the tax arrangements, which also create complexity for share buybacks, which could make up a larger proportion of distributions in the future.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p>Shell has acknowledged over the last years that it might like to combine both  shares, should tax treatments allow it.</p>
<ul>
<li>Oil majors are building renewables/low carbon businesses. In this scenario, they could part-list the pure play, retaining the operational synergies with the wider group but crystallising valuation, which would allow accessing new capital pools and providing investors with greater optionality.</li>
</ul>
<p>RDSB ADR is trading at a 5% discount to RDSA ADR, well above the 10-year average, which is a 2% premium to the B shares. I regard that discount level as attractive.</p>
<p>Trade: <strong>LONG RDSB ADR/SHORT RDSA ADR</strong>. Target: 2% premium.</p>

Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA NA) retains two main listings in both London and Amsterdam, both are also traded at the NYSE as ADR:

RDSA NA/RDSA LN, more liquid in Amsterdam

A shares, converted from Royal Dutch Petroleum, subject to Dutch withholding tax (15%).
Primarily listed in Amsterdam, with a secondary listing in London. 


RDSB NA/RDSB LN more liquid in London.

B shares, converted from Shell Transport &amp; Trading.
There is no Dutch withholding tax on dividends paid on Royal Dutch Shell Class B ordinary shares or Class B ADSs provided that such dividends are paid on the Dividend Access Share pursuant to the Dividend Access Mechanism.



“B” shares trade in New York at a discount of approximately 5% with respect to the “A” shares.


The reason is the effect of Dutch withholding taxes and the tax arrangements, which also create complexity for share buybacks, which could make up a larger proportion of distributions in the future.


Shell has acknowledged over the last years that it might like to combine both  shares, should tax treatments allow it.

Oil majors are building renewables/low carbon businesses. In this scenario, they could part-list the pure play, retaining the operational synergies with the wider group but crystallising valuation, which would allow accessing new capital pools and providing investors with greater optionality.

RDSB ADR is trading at a 5% discount to RDSA ADR, well above the 10-year average, which is a 2% premium to the B shares. I regard that discount level as attractive.
Trade: LONG RDSB ADR/SHORT RDSA ADR. Target: 2% premium.

Unilever on the Verge of Unification, So... What About Royal Dutch Shell?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Blue Moon Group Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-blue-moon-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29179:1" rel="noopener">Blue Moon Group Holdings (BMG HK)</a> (BMG) plans to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong listing. The company is backed by Hillhouse who first invested in the company in 2010. </p></div><div><p>BMG is a consumer household care company in China, which sells its products in three main categories: fabric care, personal hygiene and home care. As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, it has been the market leader in liquid laundry detergent, liquid soap and concentrated liquid laundry detergent market over 2017-19. </p></div><div><p>In my earlier insights:</p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blue-moon-group-pre-ipo-the-positives-dominant-market-share-strong-online-sales" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - The Positives - Dominant Market Share, Strong Online Sales</a>, I spoke about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blue-moon-group-pre-ipo-the-negatives-flagging-offline-sales-not-really-a-primary-raising" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Flagging Offline Sales, Not Really a Primary Raising</a>, I spoke about the not so flattering aspects of the deal</li>
<li>While my colleague, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/ming-lu" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2496" rel="noopener">Ming Lu, </a>commented on the offline presence in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blue-moon-no-1-but-no-exclusive-advantage-observation-on-the-ground" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Blue Moon: No. 1 but no exclusive advantage, observation on the ground.</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blue-moon-group-pre-ipo-online-reviews-and-peer-comparison" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - Online Reviews and Peer Comparison</a>, I compared the company compares with some of its listed peers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blue-moon-group-pre-ipo-initial-thoughts-on-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - Initial Thoughts on Valuation</a>, I took a first stab at valuations.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blue-moon-group-pre-ipo-phip-updates-a-mixed-bag" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - A Mixed Bag</a>, I spoke about the updates from the PHIP filing</li>
</ul></div><div><p>In this insight, I'll talk about updates to my previous valuations.</p></div>

Blue Moon Group Holdings (BMG HK) (BMG) plans to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong listing. The company is backed by Hillhouse who first invested in the company in 2010. BMG is a consumer household care company in China, which sells its products in three main categories: fabric care, personal hygiene and home care. As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, it has been the market leader in liquid laundry detergent, liquid soap and concentrated liquid laundry detergent market over 2017-19. In my earlier insights:

Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - The Positives - Dominant Market Share, Strong Online Sales, I spoke about the positive aspects of the deal.
In Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Flagging Offline Sales, Not Really a Primary Raising, I spoke about the not so flattering aspects of the deal
While my colleague, Ming Lu, commented on the offline presence in Blue Moon: No. 1 but no exclusive advantage, observation on the ground.


Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - Online Reviews and Peer Comparison, I compared the company compares with some of its listed peers.

Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - Initial Thoughts on Valuation, I took a first stab at valuations.

Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - A Mixed Bag, I spoke about the updates from the PHIP filing
In this insight, I'll talk about updates to my previous valuations.

Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - Valuation Updates

<div>
<p>With this report, I continue the monthly series on some of the main European holding companies that I deem interesting to long/short clients.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>The discounts to NAV of Industrivärden and Kinnevik have considerably tightened. It is time to unwind them, and wait for the discounts to widen before setting up the trades again.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>The most compelling situations in this report are GBL and Investor AB. The spread in Unilever is less than okay, but safe. It should close in a month as a result of the share unification.</p>
</div>


With this report, I continue the monthly series on some of the main European holding companies that I deem interesting to long/short clients.


The discounts to NAV of Industrivärden and Kinnevik have considerably tightened. It is time to unwind them, and wait for the discounts to widen before setting up the trades again.


The most compelling situations in this report are GBL and Investor AB. The spread in Unilever is less than okay, but safe. It should close in a month as a result of the share unification.


Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: October Report

United Kingdom

Unilever PLC manufactures branded and packaged consumer goods, including food, detergents, fragrances, home and personal care products.  Dually-listed company with UNA NA.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Unilever PLC (ULVR LN)

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: December Report

Interesting long/short situations are: premium of BHP AU vs. BLT LN is 24.6% , HEIO NA relative HEIA NA, 15.5% discount, Investor (13.5% discount...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: November Report

Holding companies have reduced their discount to NAV during November. Kinnevik is trading at a premium to NAV. Interesting trades are GBL, and in...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Unilever on the Verge of Unification, So... What About Royal Dutch Shell?

RDSB ADR is trading at a 5% discount to RDSA ADR, well above the 10-year average. I regard that discount level as attractive. Trade: Long RDSB ADR ...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - Valuation Updates

Blue Moon Group Holdings (BMG HK) (BMG) plans to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong listing. The company is backed by Hillhouse who first...

Sumeet Singh

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: October Report

The most compelling situations in this report are GBL and Investor AB. The spread in Unilever is less than okay, but safe. It should close in a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)