External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Despite the regained volume since the end of last year, consumers continue to maintain overall spending, leading to downtrading behavior.</li><li>This is reinforced by the GDP deflator, which recorded a negative growth of -0.8% YoY in 1Q24.</li><li>Our rationale for why consumer staples remain unfavorable aligns with the current monetary policies.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Despite the regained volume since the end of last year, consumers continue to maintain overall spending, leading to downtrading behavior.This is reinforced by the GDP deflator, which recorded a negative growth of -0.8% YoY in 1Q24.Our rationale for why consumer staples remain unfavorable aligns with the current monetary policies.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Staples Sectoral Update May 21, 2024

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>With the FMCG market having sound growth prospects, we estimate FY24F growth of 7% yoy.</li><li>Some categories still showed promising growth in 3Q23, despite the market’s overall volume contraction.</li><li>We maintain our sector OW rating and expect ICBP (TP Rp13,000) and MYOR (TP Rp3,500) to fare better under a soft recovery scenario.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

With the FMCG market having sound growth prospects, we estimate FY24F growth of 7% yoy.Some categories still showed promising growth in 3Q23, despite the market’s overall volume contraction.We maintain our sector OW rating and expect ICBP (TP Rp13,000) and MYOR (TP Rp3,500) to fare better under a soft recovery scenario.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer: Room for Growth Is Still in Store (OVERWEIGHT)

<ul><li>We expect more provision for social aid and the festive events in 1H24 to cushion soft purchasing power recovery amid modest wage hikes.</li><li>We forecast FY24 net profit growth for the sector of 10.6% yoy (core profits: +5% yoy) supported by sales volume recovery (3-9%).</li><li>We maintain sector OW rating and expect ICBP (TP Rp13,000) and MYOR (TP Rp3,500) to fare better under soft recovery scenario.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We expect more provision for social aid and the festive events in 1H24 to cushion soft purchasing power recovery amid modest wage hikes.We forecast FY24 net profit growth for the sector of 10.6% yoy (core profits: +5% yoy) supported by sales volume recovery (3-9%).We maintain sector OW rating and expect ICBP (TP Rp13,000) and MYOR (TP Rp3,500) to fare better under soft recovery scenario.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer: Festive events in 1H24 and higher social aid to cushion soft recovery in FY24 (OVERWEIGHT)

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>UNVR reported inline 9M23 earnings, with improved margins from lower raw materials price &amp; improved volume growth.</li><li>We slightly raised FY23F EPS growth forecast to 6.9% yoy but expect FY24 growth to remain tepid at +5.3% yoy amidst 4.2% yoy top line growth (in line with the pre-pandemic 2015-19 CAGR).</li><li>We estimate +10bps gross margins improvement and continued high spending on A&amp;P. Maintain HOLD with a lower TP of IDR4,100</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

UNVR reported inline 9M23 earnings, with improved margins from lower raw materials price &amp; improved volume growth.We slightly raised FY23F EPS growth forecast to 6.9% yoy but expect FY24 growth to remain tepid at +5.3% yoy amidst 4.2% yoy top line growth (in line with the pre-pandemic 2015-19 CAGR).We estimate +10bps gross margins improvement and continued high spending on A&amp;P. Maintain HOLD with a lower TP of IDR4,100Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ) - Margins Aided 9M23 Earnings, Volume Remained Soft

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<li>UNVR reported inline 1Q23 earnings. Stock reduction in the trade channels was completed in 1Q23, paving the way for healthier growth ahead.</li>
<li>We see upside potential in the share price going forward, especially with the expectation of continued margins recovery. Upgrade to BUY.</li>
<li>Trade stock reduction completed; a healthier top line expected.</li>
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UNVR reported inline 1Q23 earnings. Stock reduction in the trade channels was completed in 1Q23, paving the way for healthier growth ahead.
We see upside potential in the share price going forward, especially with the expectation of continued margins recovery. Upgrade to BUY.
Trade stock reduction completed; a healthier top line expected.













Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.













Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ): Upgrade Value Emerges on Margins Recovery

Indonesia

PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk manufactures soaps, detergents, margarine, oil and dairy based foods, tea based beverages, ice cream, and cosmetics.

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