ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Indonesia’s biggest milk company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-industry-trading-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk Industry &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ)</a> recently announced its 3Q2020 results, which saw a resilient performance from its dairy business and less so from packet tea. We caught up with management to garner a bit more colour on the simmering recovery that is taking place. </p>
<p>In the dairy division white milk in larger packet sizes has been doing especially well, given the large portion of the population working and schooling from home. </p>
<p>Smaller packet flavoured milks and packet tea under the Teh Sosroh brand continue to be under pressure given these are often picked up on the move but we expect a decent recovery as the economy opens up. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-ind-trading" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ)</a> is likely to see a marginally slower growth performance this year but a continued rebound in earnings should be expected in 4Q2020, driven by a move to a "new normal" in Indonesia and a gradual opening up of the economy. </p>
<p>The company has opened a new Tetrapak line for larger packets to satisfy the growing demand for family packs. It is also investing in two large-sized dairy farms to ensure local supply.</p>
<p>Next year the company will invest in a new production and distribution centre closer to Jakarta, which will diversify its operations geographically. It has successfully secured IDR3tn in medium-term notes to finance its expansion. </p>
<p>Valuations remain attractive with the company trading on 15.5x FY21E PER versus its peer group average of 26x forward PER. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-ind-trading" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ)</a> remains a core staple holding in Indonesia and one of our top long-term consumer picks. </p>

Indonesia’s biggest milk company Ultrajaya Milk Industry &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ) recently announced its 3Q2020 results, which saw a resilient performance from its dairy business and less so from packet tea. We caught up with management to garner a bit more colour on the simmering recovery that is taking place. 
In the dairy division white milk in larger packet sizes has been doing especially well, given the large portion of the population working and schooling from home. 
Smaller packet flavoured milks and packet tea under the Teh Sosroh brand continue to be under pressure given these are often picked up on the move but we expect a decent recovery as the economy opens up. 
Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ) is likely to see a marginally slower growth performance this year but a continued rebound in earnings should be expected in 4Q2020, driven by a move to a "new normal" in Indonesia and a gradual opening up of the economy. 
The company has opened a new Tetrapak line for larger packets to satisfy the growing demand for family packs. It is also investing in two large-sized dairy farms to ensure local supply.
Next year the company will invest in a new production and distribution centre closer to Jakarta, which will diversify its operations geographically. It has successfully secured IDR3tn in medium-term notes to finance its expansion. 
Valuations remain attractive with the company trading on 15.5x FY21E PER versus its peer group average of 26x forward PER. Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ) remains a core staple holding in Indonesia and one of our top long-term consumer picks. 

Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading (ULTJ IJ) - Simmering Recovery

Cross Asset Strategy

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<p>The week that was in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</p>
<p>We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  </p>
</div><h3>Equity Bottom Up</h3><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sea-ltd-se-us-financial-services-the-third-pillar" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Sea Ltd (SE US) - Financial Services the Third Pillar?</a>, CrossASEAN insight provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits the company after the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) announced last week that it will award a full digital bank license to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US).</a></p><p> In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/erajaya-swasembada-eraa-ij-feeding-the-digital-economy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46136" rel="noopener">Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) - Feeding the Digital Economy,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits Indonesia's leading smartphone and retailer and distributor after a call with the company's management. </p><p>In this Malaysian Insight,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/myeg-vaccine-and-concession-worries-unfounded" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> MYEG: Vaccine and Concession - Worries Unfounded</a>, CrossASEAN insight provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/henry-soediarko" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Henry Soediarko</a> sees the company as undervalued versus its peers, with management taking a more dynamic and active approach by launching new initiatives such as online groceries and health screening services.</p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/far-east-hospitality-trust-feht-stable-in-slow-recovery" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT): Stable in Slow Recovery</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/henry-soediarko" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Henry Soediarko</a> returns to look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/far-east-hospitality-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19061:1" rel="noopener">Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT SP)</a>, which he sees as a relatively safe way to play the recovery in the hospitality industry.</p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sea-ltd-placement-new-business-needs-new-money" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> SEA Ltd Placement - New Business Needs New Money</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sumeet-singh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Sumeet Singh</a> revisits<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> as it announced that it is planning to raise US$2.2bn - US$2.6bn in a primary follow-on offering of Global Depository Shares. He sees this as an opportunistic fundraising to help grow its digital financial services having just secured a full digital banking license in Singapore. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ptt-oil-and-retail-pttor-ipo-initiation-octane-ratings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46230" rel="noopener">PTT Oil and Retail (PTTOR) IPO Initiation: Octane Ratings,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/arun-george" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1680" rel="noopener">Arun George</a> initiates coverage on this upcoming gasoline station and retailing IPO from PTT Group.</p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ipo-radar-supalai-reit-office-tower-operator-on-rama-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> IPO Radar: Supalai REIT, Office Tower Operator on Rama 3</a>, our Thai guru<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> looks at the upcoming IPO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/supalai-real-estate-investment-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30843:1" rel="noopener">Supalai Real Estate Investment Trust (SPALIRT TB)</a>in Thailand.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/supalai-public-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14148:1" rel="noopener"></a>In Thailand<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kerry-express-thailand-ipo-time-for-delivery" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Kerry Express Thailand IPO - Time for Delivery</a>, IPO specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sumeet-singh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Sumeet Singh</a> takes a look at<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-express-thailand" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB)</a> which has registered spectacular growth over the past few years. </p><p>Still in<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kerry-express-thailand-kex-ipo-update-on-valuation-range-competitor-actions" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Kerry Express Thailand (KEX) IPO: Update on Valuation Range &amp; Competitor Actions</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-hellberg" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:605" rel="noopener">Daniel Hellberg</a> of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/tracking-traffic" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tracking Traffic</a> takes a look at the upcoming IPO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-express-thailand" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB).</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-express-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29253:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB)</a> recently announced an IPO price range of THB25-28 per share and plans to finally list its shares in late December. </p><div id="ember14458">
<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-exchange-strains-seen-for-tw-futures" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Singapore Exchange – Strains Seen For TW Futures</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-j-monaco" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Thomas J. Monaco</a> takes a look at  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SGX (SGX SP),</a> after it released market statistics for November 2020. </p>
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</div><h3>Sector and Thematic</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-stocks-to-own-in-asean-vol-33" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46106" rel="noopener">The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 33,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> lays out his thoughts and highlights 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to him based on his FVMR Methodology. His research team constantly reviews the ASEAN markets to try to find interesting ideas based on Fundamentals or Valuation or Momentum or Risk or some combination thereof. </p><div><p></p></div>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  
Equity Bottom UpIn Sea Ltd (SE US) - Financial Services the Third Pillar?, CrossASEAN insight provider Angus Mackintosh revisits the company after the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) announced last week that it will award a full digital bank license to Sea Ltd (SE US). In Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) - Feeding the Digital Economy, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits Indonesia's leading smartphone and retailer and distributor after a call with the company's management. In this Malaysian Insight, MYEG: Vaccine and Concession - Worries Unfounded, CrossASEAN insight provider Henry Soediarko sees the company as undervalued versus its peers, with management taking a more dynamic and active approach by launching new initiatives such as online groceries and health screening services.In Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT): Stable in Slow Recovery, Henry Soediarko returns to look at Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT SP), which he sees as a relatively safe way to play the recovery in the hospitality industry.In SEA Ltd Placement - New Business Needs New Money, Sumeet Singh revisits Sea Ltd (SE US) as it announced that it is planning to raise US$2.2bn - US$2.6bn in a primary follow-on offering of Global Depository Shares. He sees this as an opportunistic fundraising to help grow its digital financial services having just secured a full digital banking license in Singapore. In PTT Oil and Retail (PTTOR) IPO Initiation: Octane Ratings,Arun George initiates coverage on this upcoming gasoline station and retailing IPO from PTT Group.In IPO Radar: Supalai REIT, Office Tower Operator on Rama 3, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA looks at the upcoming IPO of Supalai Real Estate Investment Trust (SPALIRT TB)in Thailand.In Thailand Kerry Express Thailand IPO - Time for Delivery, IPO specialist Sumeet Singh takes a look at Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB) which has registered spectacular growth over the past few years. Still in Kerry Express Thailand (KEX) IPO: Update on Valuation Range &amp; Competitor ActionsDaniel Hellberg of Tracking Traffic takes a look at the upcoming IPO of  Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB).Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB) recently announced an IPO price range of THB25-28 per share and plans to finally list its shares in late December. 
In Singapore Exchange – Strains Seen For TW Futures, Thomas J. Monaco takes a look at  SGX (SGX SP), after it released market statistics for November 2020. 

Sector and ThematicIn The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 33,Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA lays out his thoughts and highlights 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to him based on his FVMR Methodology. His research team constantly reviews the ASEAN markets to try to find interesting ideas based on Fundamentals or Valuation or Momentum or Risk or some combination thereof. 

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Digital Festive Cheer, Sea Ltd Going Financial, and KEX

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<p><em><strong>Corrigenda: There is an error in this Insight. Please note the correction.</strong></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Correction: The Insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bjbr-positive-fundamental-momentum-at-a-decent-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44897" rel="noopener">BJBR: Positive Fundamental Momentum at a Decent Valuation</a> was improperly attributed to Thomas Monaco. It was published by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/paul-hollingworth" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2554" rel="noopener">Paul Hollingworth</a>.</strong></em></p>
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<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The week that was in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</p>
<p>We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  </p>
</div>
<p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/smartkarma-corporate-webinar-indo-banks-the-worst-is-over" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44882" rel="noopener">Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Indo Banks: The Worst Is Over</a></strong>-<strong> 10th November at 4 pm.</strong></p>
<p>For our next Corporate Webinar, we welcome <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a>'s Group Head of Investor Relations, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/yohan-setio" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yohan Setio</a>, who will share some company updates and sit down for a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a>.</p>
<h2>Indonesia's Recovery and the Next Digital Darling</h2>
<p>This week below the fold we look at Indonesia's recent economic numbers which saw the country slide into recession, its first since the Asian Crisis but find it encouraging that the economy is moving onto a recovery track. We see selective banks and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> as core ways to play this recovery. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> is SoutEast Asia's largest Market Cap stock, and there are very few if any alternatives to get exposure to the region's e-commerce boom, certainly in the listed universe. One potential future candidate is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ),</a> which is the major shareholder of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ)</a> but it also has stakes in Bukalapak and Dana, the number three digital payments player in Indonesia and a JV with Ant Financial.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> has announced that it will seek approval for a stock split in December but this may not be the end of the story. Any restructuring which brings all of its digital assets under one roof and improves liquidity would certainly help the company attract more institutional investors and secure a higher valuation. </p>
<h3>Macro Insights</h3>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-strategy-2021-part-2-top-10-stock-picks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40851" rel="noopener">Thai Strategy 2021 (Part 2): Top 10 Stock Picks,</a> our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> lays out his top stock picks in Thailand for next year.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-strategy-2021-part-3-sector-outlooks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40864" rel="noopener">Thai Strategy 2021 (Part 3): Sector Outlooks,</a> our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> provides us with his sector strategy in Thailand for the coming year. </p>
<h3>Equity Bottom Up</h3>
<p>In an Indonesian Insight,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/astra-international-asii-ij-an-auto-recovery-story-with-a-golden-digital-twist" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Astra International (ASII IJ) - An Auto-Recovery Story with a Golden Digital Twist</a>, CrossASEAN Insight provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> returns to look at<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> after a conversation with management. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pt-surya-citra-media-tbk-scma-ij-let-the-games-begin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44914" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) - Let the Games Begin,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits one of Indonesia's leading media companies, which has an increasingly digital twist.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aem-holdings-optimistic-on-fy21-fair-value-remains-at-5-sgd-41-upside" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44915" rel="noopener">AEM Holdings: Optimistic on FY21; Fair Value Remains at 5 SGD (41% Upside),</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nicolas-van-broekhoven-24a66c2d-bca4-4f5b-adda-c4e2bcc509f4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208" rel="noopener">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM Holdings (AEM SP)</a> after an impressive set of results and remains positive.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bjbr-positive-fundamental-momentum-at-a-decent-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44897" rel="noopener">BJBR: Positive Fundamental Momentum at a Decent Valuation,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-j-monaco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1716" rel="noopener">Thomas J. Monaco</a> writes on this smaller Indonesian lender with a positive slant.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/oversea-chinese-banking-corp-still-not-a-great-eastern" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44901" rel="noopener">Oversea Chinese Banking Corp – Still Not A Great Eastern,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-j-monaco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1716" rel="noopener">Thomas J. Monaco</a> looked in detail at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> numbers ahead of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oversea-chinese-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1" rel="noopener">Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. (OCBC SP)</a> results. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/oversea-chinese-banking-corp-solid" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45061" rel="noopener">Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. – Solid,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-j-monaco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1716" rel="noopener">Thomas J. Monaco</a> revisits this Singapore lender with a positive view post its recent 3Q2020 numbers. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1" rel="noopener"></a>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dbs-group-holdings-not-trending-the-right-way-yet" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> DBS Group Holdings – Not Trending The Right Way Yet</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-j-monaco" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Thomas J. Monaco</a> reports back<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dbs-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP)</a>'s post its recent 3Q2020 results with a chequered view.</p>
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<p>In this Thai Insight,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hmpro-expect-government-stimulus-scheme-drive-4q20-recover-qoq" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> HMPRO: Expect Government Stimulus Scheme Drive 4Q20 Recover QoQ,</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> circle back to Thailand's leading home improvements player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/home-product-center-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9906:1" rel="noopener">Home Product Center (HMPRO TB)</a>. </p>
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<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/synex-solid-earnings-growth-outlook-but-largely-priced-in" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> SYNEX: Solid Earnings Growth Outlook but Largely Priced In</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> provides a view on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/synnex-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Synnex Thailand (SYNEX TB),</a> following the recent run-up in the share price. </p>
<p>In this Thai Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/scc-strong-3q20-thanks-to-petrochemical-spread" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SCC: Strong 3Q20 Thanks to Petrochemical Spread</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> return to look at<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-cement-pcl-the" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Siam Cement (SCC TB)</a> post 3Q2020 results. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mc-prominent-denim-brand-with-new-growth-momentum" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45077" rel="noopener">MC: Prominent Denim Brand with New Growth Momentum,</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a>initiate on this leading Thai denim apparel player. They initiate coverage of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mc-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17093:1" rel="noopener">MC Group Pcl (MC TB)</a> with a BUY rating and a target price of Bt12.0, derived from 18.5x FY21E PER, which is +1SD above its 5-year trading average but slightly lower than its global apparel peers.</p>
<h3>Credit Insights</h3>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lippo-karawaci-earnings-flash-q3-fy-2020-results-lucror-analytics" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lippo Karawaci - Earnings Flash - Q3 FY 2020 Results</a>, credit specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/trung-nguyen" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Trung Nguyen</a> looks at<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lippo-karawaci-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ)'s</a> after its recent results, which continued to be robust in Q32020. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chandra-asri-earnings-flash-9m-fy-2020-results-lucror-analytics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44814" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri - Earnings Flash - 9M FY 2020 Results</a> credit specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/leonard-law-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:7106" rel="noopener">Leonard Law, CFA</a> circles back to this leading chemicals player post 3Q2020 results.</p>


Corrigenda: There is an error in this Insight. Please note the correction.
Correction: The Insight BJBR: Positive Fundamental Momentum at a Decent Valuation was improperly attributed to Thomas Monaco. It was published by Paul Hollingworth.



The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Indo Banks: The Worst Is Over- 10th November at 4 pm.
For our next Corporate Webinar, we welcome Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)'s Group Head of Investor Relations, Yohan Setio, who will share some company updates and sit down for a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh.
Indonesia's Recovery and the Next Digital Darling
This week below the fold we look at Indonesia's recent economic numbers which saw the country slide into recession, its first since the Asian Crisis but find it encouraging that the economy is moving onto a recovery track. We see selective banks and Astra International (ASII IJ) as core ways to play this recovery. 
Sea Ltd (SE US) is SoutEast Asia's largest Market Cap stock, and there are very few if any alternatives to get exposure to the region's e-commerce boom, certainly in the listed universe. One potential future candidate is Emtek (EMTK IJ), which is the major shareholder of PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) but it also has stakes in Bukalapak and Dana, the number three digital payments player in Indonesia and a JV with Ant Financial.
Emtek (EMTK IJ) has announced that it will seek approval for a stock split in December but this may not be the end of the story. Any restructuring which brings all of its digital assets under one roof and improves liquidity would certainly help the company attract more institutional investors and secure a higher valuation. 
Macro Insights
In Thai Strategy 2021 (Part 2): Top 10 Stock Picks, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA lays out his top stock picks in Thailand for next year.
In Thai Strategy 2021 (Part 3): Sector Outlooks, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA provides us with his sector strategy in Thailand for the coming year. 
Equity Bottom Up
In an Indonesian Insight, Astra International (ASII IJ) - An Auto-Recovery Story with a Golden Digital Twist, CrossASEAN Insight provider Angus Mackintosh returns to look at Astra International (ASII IJ) after a conversation with management. 
In PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) - Let the Games Begin, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits one of Indonesia's leading media companies, which has an increasingly digital twist.
In AEM Holdings: Optimistic on FY21; Fair Value Remains at 5 SGD (41% Upside), CrossASEAN Insight Provider Nicolas Van Broekhoven revisits AEM Holdings (AEM SP) after an impressive set of results and remains positive.
In BJBR: Positive Fundamental Momentum at a Decent Valuation,Thomas J. Monaco writes on this smaller Indonesian lender with a positive slant.
In Oversea Chinese Banking Corp – Still Not A Great Eastern,Thomas J. Monaco looked in detail at Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) numbers ahead of Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. (OCBC SP) results. 
In Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. – Solid,Thomas J. Monaco revisits this Singapore lender with a positive view post its recent 3Q2020 numbers. 
In DBS Group Holdings – Not Trending The Right Way Yet, Thomas J. Monaco reports back DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP)'s post its recent 3Q2020 results with a chequered view.



In this Thai Insight, HMPRO: Expect Government Stimulus Scheme Drive 4Q20 Recover QoQ, our friends at Country Group circle back to Thailand's leading home improvements player Home Product Center (HMPRO TB). 



In SYNEX: Solid Earnings Growth Outlook but Largely Priced In, Country Group provides a view on Synnex Thailand (SYNEX TB), following the recent run-up in the share price. 
In this Thai Insight, SCC: Strong 3Q20 Thanks to Petrochemical Spread, our friends at Country Group return to look at Siam Cement (SCC TB) post 3Q2020 results. 
In MC: Prominent Denim Brand with New Growth Momentum, our friends at Country Groupinitiate on this leading Thai denim apparel player. They initiate coverage of MC Group Pcl (MC TB) with a BUY rating and a target price of Bt12.0, derived from 18.5x FY21E PER, which is +1SD above its 5-year trading average but slightly lower than its global apparel peers.
Credit Insights
In Lippo Karawaci - Earnings Flash - Q3 FY 2020 Results, credit specialist Trung Nguyen looks at Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ)'s after its recent results, which continued to be robust in Q32020. 
In Chandra Asri - Earnings Flash - 9M FY 2020 Results credit specialist Leonard Law, CFA circles back to this leading chemicals player post 3Q2020 results.

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Indonesia's Recovery and the Next Digital Darling

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</p>
<p>Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a></p>
</div><h3>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ultrajaya-milk-ind-trading-ultj-ij-a-wholesome-performance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42810" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ) - A Wholesome Performance,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits Indonesia's leading dairy player after a conversation with management. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pt-nippon-indosari-corpindo-roti-ij-roti-s-exit-from-philippines-a-positive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43102" rel="noopener">PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ) - ROTI's Exit from Philippines a Positive,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits Indonesia's largest mass-market bread player after its announcement it would exit the Philippines to focus on its Indonesian home market. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sido-muncul-sido-switch-competitor-and-split" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43029" rel="noopener">Sido Muncul (SIDO): Switch, Competitor and Split,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/henry-soediarko" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1006" rel="noopener">Henry Soediarko</a> revisits Indonesian traditional medicine player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industri-jamu-dan-farmasi-sido-muncul-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6033:1" rel="noopener">Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ)</a> with an update post it recently announced stock split. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bluebird-bird-correlated-with-psbb-beneficiary-of-wfh-to-wfo-switch" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43077" rel="noopener">Bluebird (BIRD): Correlated with PSBB, Beneficiary of WFH to WFO Switch</a>, CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/henry-soediarko" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1006" rel="noopener">Henry Soediarko</a> revisits Indonesia's largest taxi operator.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/small-cap-diary-singha-hotels-ptg-energy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41024" rel="noopener">Small-Cap Diary: Singha Hotels, PTG Energy,</a> our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> reports back having visited two interesting companies recently, namely <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-hotels-resorts-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28924:1" rel="noopener">S Hotels &amp; Resorts PCL (SHR TB)</a> (Singha Hotels), and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptg-energy-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14385:1" rel="noopener">Ptg Energy Pcl (PTG TB)</a>, the country's second-largest gas station operator.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sembcorp-marine-rights-issue-results-looks-like-a-scheme-of-introduction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43030" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine Rights Issue Results: Looks Like a Scheme of Introduction,</a> events specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a> in the wake of recent announcements. </p><div>
<span>In </span><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/capitaland-mall-and-cct-merger-circular-finally-out-looks-done" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43006" rel="noopener">Capitaland Mall and CCT Merger: Circular Finally Out. Looks Done.</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a><span> revisits this ongoing merger in Singapore. </span>
</div><div><span> </span></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-exchange-taiwan-a-standout-in-august" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43185" rel="noopener">Singapore Exchange – Taiwan A Standout In August,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> circles back to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1047:1" rel="noopener">SGX (SGX SP)</a> post its monthly numbers.  </p></div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jwd-entering-high-season-with-growth-drivers-from-new-projects" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43045" rel="noopener">JWD: Entering High Season with Growth Drivers from New Projects,</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> revisit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jwd-infologistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28438:1" rel="noopener">JWD Infologistics (JWD TB)</a> in Thailand. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/global-home-improvement-player-eyes-opportunities-in-asean" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43134" rel="noopener">GLOBAL: Home-Improvement Player Eyes Opportunities in ASEAN,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> initiate coverage on Thai home improvement player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-global-house-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19449:1" rel="noopener">Siam Global House (GLOBAL TB)</a>. </p><h3>Sector and Thematic Insights</h3><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/in-malaysia-heineken-vs-carlsberg-close" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42940" rel="noopener">In Malaysia: Heineken Vs Carlsberg (Close),</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits this pair trade, which he recommends to close. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesia-banks-vastly-differing-tales" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43031" rel="noopener">Indonesia Banks – Vastly Differing Tales,</a> banking specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> compares tow Indonesian banks, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-danamon-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:135:1" rel="noopener">Bank Danamon Indonesia (BDMN IJ),</a> and finds two very different stories.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-stocks-to-own-in-asean-vol-32" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43064" rel="noopener">The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 32,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> highlights 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to him based upon our FVMR Methodology. His research team constantly reviews the ASEAN markets to try to find interesting ideas based on Fundamentals or Valuation or Momentum or Risk or some combination thereof.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-stocks-to-own-in-thailand-vol-30" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43063" rel="noopener">The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 30,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology. Our research team constantly reviews the Thai market to try to find interesting ideas base upon Fundamentals or Valuation or Momentum or Risk or some combination thereof. </p><h3>Credit Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sritex-tear-sheet-lucror-analytics-89648093-0639-4666-a47c-ac1899e8691d" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43168" rel="noopener">Sritex - Tear Sheet,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/leonard-law-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:7106" rel="noopener">Leonard Law, CFA</a> presents his credit views view on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-rejeki-isman-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20178:1" rel="noopener">Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ)</a> (Sritex). He views Sritex as “High Risk” on the LARA scale.</p>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in ASEAN@Smartkarma
Equity Bottom-Up InsightsIn Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ) - A Wholesome Performance, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits Indonesia's leading dairy player after a conversation with management. In PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ) - ROTI's Exit from Philippines a Positive,Angus Mackintosh revisits Indonesia's largest mass-market bread player after its announcement it would exit the Philippines to focus on its Indonesian home market. In Sido Muncul (SIDO): Switch, Competitor and Split, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Henry Soediarko revisits Indonesian traditional medicine player Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) with an update post it recently announced stock split. In Bluebird (BIRD): Correlated with PSBB, Beneficiary of WFH to WFO Switch, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Henry Soediarko revisits Indonesia's largest taxi operator.In Small-Cap Diary: Singha Hotels, PTG Energy, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA reports back having visited two interesting companies recently, namely S Hotels &amp; Resorts PCL (SHR TB) (Singha Hotels), and Ptg Energy Pcl (PTG TB), the country's second-largest gas station operator.In Sembcorp Marine Rights Issue Results: Looks Like a Scheme of Introduction, events specialist Travis Lundy revisits Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) in the wake of recent announcements. 
In Capitaland Mall and CCT Merger: Circular Finally Out. Looks Done.Travis Lundy revisits this ongoing merger in Singapore. 
 In Singapore Exchange – Taiwan A Standout In August,Brian Freitas circles back to SGX (SGX SP) post its monthly numbers.  In JWD: Entering High Season with Growth Drivers from New Projects, our friends at Country Group revisit JWD Infologistics (JWD TB) in Thailand. In GLOBAL: Home-Improvement Player Eyes Opportunities in ASEAN,Country Group initiate coverage on Thai home improvement player Siam Global House (GLOBAL TB). Sector and Thematic InsightsIn Malaysia: Heineken Vs Carlsberg (Close), CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits this pair trade, which he recommends to close. In Indonesia Banks – Vastly Differing Tales, banking specialist Daniel Tabbush compares tow Indonesian banks, Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) and Bank Danamon Indonesia (BDMN IJ), and finds two very different stories.In The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 32,Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA highlights 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to him based upon our FVMR Methodology. His research team constantly reviews the ASEAN markets to try to find interesting ideas based on Fundamentals or Valuation or Momentum or Risk or some combination thereof.In The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 30,Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology. Our research team constantly reviews the Thai market to try to find interesting ideas base upon Fundamentals or Valuation or Momentum or Risk or some combination thereof. Credit InsightsIn Sritex - Tear Sheet,Leonard Law, CFA presents his credit views view on Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ) (Sritex). He views Sritex as “High Risk” on the LARA scale.

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Indonesian Dairy, Bank Central Asia, and Thai Picks

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-ind-trading" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ)</a> saw a more pronounced impact from COVID-19 in 2Q2020, with a decline in growth for UHT milk with UHT white milk seeing better performance than flavoured products. This can be attributed to people working and breakfasting from home with PSBB measures in place, which also drove higher demand for larger size packets.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-ind-trading" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ)</a> did not see the usual benefits this year from Lebaran with packaged tea hit particularly hard, given far fewer people travelling due to the Mudik ban (return to home village). Normally Teh Kotak is a popular drink to pick up for long journeys. </p>
<p>July saw a slight pick-up in milk sales with some relaxation of PSBB measures from mid-June but it is too soon to read the performance for August. We would suggest a continuing rebound in sales of flavoured milk, as the population start to become more mobile again.</p>
<p>We also expect a gradual pick up in sales of Teh Kotak packet tea sales as employees return to working from the office again, albeit at a reduced intensity to start with.</p>
<p>Increased capacity for large size packets will also help to drive UHT white and flavoured milk growth, given greater demand due to WFH and schooling from home, especially for breakfasting.  </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-ind-trading" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ)</a> is likely to see a marginally slower growth performance this year but a rebound in earnings should be expected in 2H2020, driven by a move to a "new normal" in Indonesia and a gradual opening up of the economy. It is unlikely that it will adjust prices higher in September this year, which may slow growth prospects slightly. Valuations remain attractive with the company trading on 16.4x FY21E PER versus its peer group average of 26x forward PER. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-ind-trading" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ)</a> remains a core staple holding in Indonesia. </p>

Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ) saw a more pronounced impact from COVID-19 in 2Q2020, with a decline in growth for UHT milk with UHT white milk seeing better performance than flavoured products. This can be attributed to people working and breakfasting from home with PSBB measures in place, which also drove higher demand for larger size packets.
Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ) did not see the usual benefits this year from Lebaran with packaged tea hit particularly hard, given far fewer people travelling due to the Mudik ban (return to home village). Normally Teh Kotak is a popular drink to pick up for long journeys. 
July saw a slight pick-up in milk sales with some relaxation of PSBB measures from mid-June but it is too soon to read the performance for August. We would suggest a continuing rebound in sales of flavoured milk, as the population start to become more mobile again.
We also expect a gradual pick up in sales of Teh Kotak packet tea sales as employees return to working from the office again, albeit at a reduced intensity to start with.
Increased capacity for large size packets will also help to drive UHT white and flavoured milk growth, given greater demand due to WFH and schooling from home, especially for breakfasting.  
Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ) is likely to see a marginally slower growth performance this year but a rebound in earnings should be expected in 2H2020, driven by a move to a "new normal" in Indonesia and a gradual opening up of the economy. It is unlikely that it will adjust prices higher in September this year, which may slow growth prospects slightly. Valuations remain attractive with the company trading on 16.4x FY21E PER versus its peer group average of 26x forward PER. Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ) remains a core staple holding in Indonesia. 

Ultrajaya Milk Ind & Trading (ULTJ IJ) - A Wholesome Performance

Indonesia

PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry and Trading Company Tbk operates in the food and beverage industry. The Company produces aseptic drinks such as liquid milk, fruit juices and health drinks. Ultrajaya Milk also produces butter, powder milk and sweet condensed milk.

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Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ)

Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading (ULTJ IJ) - Simmering Recovery

Ultrajaya Milk Ind & Trading (ULTJ IJ) is the leading dairy company in Indonesia, dominating the UHT market. It continues to expand capacity and...

Angus Mackintosh

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Digital Festive Cheer, Sea Ltd Going Financial, and KEX

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Angus Mackintosh

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Indonesia's Recovery and the Next Digital Darling

The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across SE...

Angus Mackintosh

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Indonesian Dairy, Bank Central Asia, and Thai Picks

The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South...

Angus Mackintosh

Ultrajaya Milk Ind & Trading (ULTJ IJ) - A Wholesome Performance

Ultrajaya Milk Ind Trading (ULTJ IJ) saw a more pronounced impact from COVID-19 in 2Q2020 than expected...

Angus Mackintosh

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