ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

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<p><em><strong>Corrigenda: There is an error in this Insight. Please note the correction.</strong></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Correction: The Insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bjbr-positive-fundamental-momentum-at-a-decent-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44897" rel="noopener">BJBR: Positive Fundamental Momentum at a Decent Valuation</a> was improperly attributed to Thomas Monaco. It was published by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/paul-hollingworth" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2554" rel="noopener">Paul Hollingworth</a>.</strong></em></p>
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<p>The week that was in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</p>
<p>We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  </p>
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<p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/smartkarma-corporate-webinar-indo-banks-the-worst-is-over" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44882" rel="noopener">Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Indo Banks: The Worst Is Over</a></strong>-<strong> 10th November at 4 pm.</strong></p>
<p>For our next Corporate Webinar, we welcome <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a>'s Group Head of Investor Relations, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/yohan-setio" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yohan Setio</a>, who will share some company updates and sit down for a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a>.</p>
<h2>Indonesia's Recovery and the Next Digital Darling</h2>
<p>This week below the fold we look at Indonesia's recent economic numbers which saw the country slide into recession, its first since the Asian Crisis but find it encouraging that the economy is moving onto a recovery track. We see selective banks and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> as core ways to play this recovery. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> is SoutEast Asia's largest Market Cap stock, and there are very few if any alternatives to get exposure to the region's e-commerce boom, certainly in the listed universe. One potential future candidate is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ),</a> which is the major shareholder of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ)</a> but it also has stakes in Bukalapak and Dana, the number three digital payments player in Indonesia and a JV with Ant Financial.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> has announced that it will seek approval for a stock split in December but this may not be the end of the story. Any restructuring which brings all of its digital assets under one roof and improves liquidity would certainly help the company attract more institutional investors and secure a higher valuation. </p>
<h3>Macro Insights</h3>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-strategy-2021-part-2-top-10-stock-picks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40851" rel="noopener">Thai Strategy 2021 (Part 2): Top 10 Stock Picks,</a> our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> lays out his top stock picks in Thailand for next year.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-strategy-2021-part-3-sector-outlooks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40864" rel="noopener">Thai Strategy 2021 (Part 3): Sector Outlooks,</a> our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> provides us with his sector strategy in Thailand for the coming year. </p>
<h3>Equity Bottom Up</h3>
<p>In an Indonesian Insight,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/astra-international-asii-ij-an-auto-recovery-story-with-a-golden-digital-twist" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Astra International (ASII IJ) - An Auto-Recovery Story with a Golden Digital Twist</a>, CrossASEAN Insight provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> returns to look at<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> after a conversation with management. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pt-surya-citra-media-tbk-scma-ij-let-the-games-begin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44914" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) - Let the Games Begin,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits one of Indonesia's leading media companies, which has an increasingly digital twist.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aem-holdings-optimistic-on-fy21-fair-value-remains-at-5-sgd-41-upside" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44915" rel="noopener">AEM Holdings: Optimistic on FY21; Fair Value Remains at 5 SGD (41% Upside),</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nicolas-van-broekhoven-24a66c2d-bca4-4f5b-adda-c4e2bcc509f4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208" rel="noopener">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM Holdings (AEM SP)</a> after an impressive set of results and remains positive.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bjbr-positive-fundamental-momentum-at-a-decent-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44897" rel="noopener">BJBR: Positive Fundamental Momentum at a Decent Valuation,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-j-monaco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1716" rel="noopener">Thomas J. Monaco</a> writes on this smaller Indonesian lender with a positive slant.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/oversea-chinese-banking-corp-still-not-a-great-eastern" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44901" rel="noopener">Oversea Chinese Banking Corp – Still Not A Great Eastern,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-j-monaco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1716" rel="noopener">Thomas J. Monaco</a> looked in detail at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> numbers ahead of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oversea-chinese-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1" rel="noopener">Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. (OCBC SP)</a> results. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/oversea-chinese-banking-corp-solid" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45061" rel="noopener">Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. – Solid,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-j-monaco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1716" rel="noopener">Thomas J. Monaco</a> revisits this Singapore lender with a positive view post its recent 3Q2020 numbers. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1" rel="noopener"></a>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dbs-group-holdings-not-trending-the-right-way-yet" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> DBS Group Holdings – Not Trending The Right Way Yet</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-j-monaco" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Thomas J. Monaco</a> reports back<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dbs-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP)</a>'s post its recent 3Q2020 results with a chequered view.</p>
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<p>In this Thai Insight,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hmpro-expect-government-stimulus-scheme-drive-4q20-recover-qoq" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> HMPRO: Expect Government Stimulus Scheme Drive 4Q20 Recover QoQ,</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> circle back to Thailand's leading home improvements player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/home-product-center-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9906:1" rel="noopener">Home Product Center (HMPRO TB)</a>. </p>
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<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/synex-solid-earnings-growth-outlook-but-largely-priced-in" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> SYNEX: Solid Earnings Growth Outlook but Largely Priced In</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> provides a view on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/synnex-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Synnex Thailand (SYNEX TB),</a> following the recent run-up in the share price. </p>
<p>In this Thai Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/scc-strong-3q20-thanks-to-petrochemical-spread" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SCC: Strong 3Q20 Thanks to Petrochemical Spread</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> return to look at<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-cement-pcl-the" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Siam Cement (SCC TB)</a> post 3Q2020 results. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mc-prominent-denim-brand-with-new-growth-momentum" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45077" rel="noopener">MC: Prominent Denim Brand with New Growth Momentum,</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a>initiate on this leading Thai denim apparel player. They initiate coverage of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mc-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17093:1" rel="noopener">MC Group Pcl (MC TB)</a> with a BUY rating and a target price of Bt12.0, derived from 18.5x FY21E PER, which is +1SD above its 5-year trading average but slightly lower than its global apparel peers.</p>
<h3>Credit Insights</h3>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lippo-karawaci-earnings-flash-q3-fy-2020-results-lucror-analytics" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lippo Karawaci - Earnings Flash - Q3 FY 2020 Results</a>, credit specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/trung-nguyen" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Trung Nguyen</a> looks at<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lippo-karawaci-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ)'s</a> after its recent results, which continued to be robust in Q32020. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chandra-asri-earnings-flash-9m-fy-2020-results-lucror-analytics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44814" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri - Earnings Flash - 9M FY 2020 Results</a> credit specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/leonard-law-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:7106" rel="noopener">Leonard Law, CFA</a> circles back to this leading chemicals player post 3Q2020 results.</p>


Corrigenda: There is an error in this Insight. Please note the correction.
Correction: The Insight BJBR: Positive Fundamental Momentum at a Decent Valuation was improperly attributed to Thomas Monaco. It was published by Paul Hollingworth.



The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Indo Banks: The Worst Is Over- 10th November at 4 pm.
For our next Corporate Webinar, we welcome Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)'s Group Head of Investor Relations, Yohan Setio, who will share some company updates and sit down for a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh.
Indonesia's Recovery and the Next Digital Darling
This week below the fold we look at Indonesia's recent economic numbers which saw the country slide into recession, its first since the Asian Crisis but find it encouraging that the economy is moving onto a recovery track. We see selective banks and Astra International (ASII IJ) as core ways to play this recovery. 
Sea Ltd (SE US) is SoutEast Asia's largest Market Cap stock, and there are very few if any alternatives to get exposure to the region's e-commerce boom, certainly in the listed universe. One potential future candidate is Emtek (EMTK IJ), which is the major shareholder of PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) but it also has stakes in Bukalapak and Dana, the number three digital payments player in Indonesia and a JV with Ant Financial.
Emtek (EMTK IJ) has announced that it will seek approval for a stock split in December but this may not be the end of the story. Any restructuring which brings all of its digital assets under one roof and improves liquidity would certainly help the company attract more institutional investors and secure a higher valuation. 
Macro Insights
In Thai Strategy 2021 (Part 2): Top 10 Stock Picks, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA lays out his top stock picks in Thailand for next year.
In Thai Strategy 2021 (Part 3): Sector Outlooks, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA provides us with his sector strategy in Thailand for the coming year. 
Equity Bottom Up
In an Indonesian Insight, Astra International (ASII IJ) - An Auto-Recovery Story with a Golden Digital Twist, CrossASEAN Insight provider Angus Mackintosh returns to look at Astra International (ASII IJ) after a conversation with management. 
In PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) - Let the Games Begin, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits one of Indonesia's leading media companies, which has an increasingly digital twist.
In AEM Holdings: Optimistic on FY21; Fair Value Remains at 5 SGD (41% Upside), CrossASEAN Insight Provider Nicolas Van Broekhoven revisits AEM Holdings (AEM SP) after an impressive set of results and remains positive.
In BJBR: Positive Fundamental Momentum at a Decent Valuation,Thomas J. Monaco writes on this smaller Indonesian lender with a positive slant.
In Oversea Chinese Banking Corp – Still Not A Great Eastern,Thomas J. Monaco looked in detail at Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) numbers ahead of Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. (OCBC SP) results. 
In Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. – Solid,Thomas J. Monaco revisits this Singapore lender with a positive view post its recent 3Q2020 numbers. 
In DBS Group Holdings – Not Trending The Right Way Yet, Thomas J. Monaco reports back DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP)'s post its recent 3Q2020 results with a chequered view.



In this Thai Insight, HMPRO: Expect Government Stimulus Scheme Drive 4Q20 Recover QoQ, our friends at Country Group circle back to Thailand's leading home improvements player Home Product Center (HMPRO TB). 



In SYNEX: Solid Earnings Growth Outlook but Largely Priced In, Country Group provides a view on Synnex Thailand (SYNEX TB), following the recent run-up in the share price. 
In this Thai Insight, SCC: Strong 3Q20 Thanks to Petrochemical Spread, our friends at Country Group return to look at Siam Cement (SCC TB) post 3Q2020 results. 
In MC: Prominent Denim Brand with New Growth Momentum, our friends at Country Groupinitiate on this leading Thai denim apparel player. They initiate coverage of MC Group Pcl (MC TB) with a BUY rating and a target price of Bt12.0, derived from 18.5x FY21E PER, which is +1SD above its 5-year trading average but slightly lower than its global apparel peers.
Credit Insights
In Lippo Karawaci - Earnings Flash - Q3 FY 2020 Results, credit specialist Trung Nguyen looks at Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ)'s after its recent results, which continued to be robust in Q32020. 
In Chandra Asri - Earnings Flash - 9M FY 2020 Results credit specialist Leonard Law, CFA circles back to this leading chemicals player post 3Q2020 results.

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Indonesia's Recovery and the Next Digital Darling

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<p>The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</p>
<p>Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a></p>
</div><h3>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ultrajaya-milk-ind-trading-ultj-ij-a-wholesome-performance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42810" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ) - A Wholesome Performance,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits Indonesia's leading dairy player after a conversation with management. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pt-nippon-indosari-corpindo-roti-ij-roti-s-exit-from-philippines-a-positive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43102" rel="noopener">PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ) - ROTI's Exit from Philippines a Positive,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits Indonesia's largest mass-market bread player after its announcement it would exit the Philippines to focus on its Indonesian home market. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sido-muncul-sido-switch-competitor-and-split" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43029" rel="noopener">Sido Muncul (SIDO): Switch, Competitor and Split,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/henry-soediarko" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1006" rel="noopener">Henry Soediarko</a> revisits Indonesian traditional medicine player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industri-jamu-dan-farmasi-sido-muncul-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6033:1" rel="noopener">Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ)</a> with an update post it recently announced stock split. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bluebird-bird-correlated-with-psbb-beneficiary-of-wfh-to-wfo-switch" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43077" rel="noopener">Bluebird (BIRD): Correlated with PSBB, Beneficiary of WFH to WFO Switch</a>, CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/henry-soediarko" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1006" rel="noopener">Henry Soediarko</a> revisits Indonesia's largest taxi operator.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/small-cap-diary-singha-hotels-ptg-energy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41024" rel="noopener">Small-Cap Diary: Singha Hotels, PTG Energy,</a> our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> reports back having visited two interesting companies recently, namely <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-hotels-resorts-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28924:1" rel="noopener">S Hotels &amp; Resorts PCL (SHR TB)</a> (Singha Hotels), and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptg-energy-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14385:1" rel="noopener">Ptg Energy Pcl (PTG TB)</a>, the country's second-largest gas station operator.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sembcorp-marine-rights-issue-results-looks-like-a-scheme-of-introduction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43030" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine Rights Issue Results: Looks Like a Scheme of Introduction,</a> events specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a> in the wake of recent announcements. </p><div>
<span>In </span><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/capitaland-mall-and-cct-merger-circular-finally-out-looks-done" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43006" rel="noopener">Capitaland Mall and CCT Merger: Circular Finally Out. Looks Done.</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a><span> revisits this ongoing merger in Singapore. </span>
</div><div><span> </span></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-exchange-taiwan-a-standout-in-august" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43185" rel="noopener">Singapore Exchange – Taiwan A Standout In August,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> circles back to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1047:1" rel="noopener">SGX (SGX SP)</a> post its monthly numbers.  </p></div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jwd-entering-high-season-with-growth-drivers-from-new-projects" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43045" rel="noopener">JWD: Entering High Season with Growth Drivers from New Projects,</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> revisit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jwd-infologistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28438:1" rel="noopener">JWD Infologistics (JWD TB)</a> in Thailand. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/global-home-improvement-player-eyes-opportunities-in-asean" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43134" rel="noopener">GLOBAL: Home-Improvement Player Eyes Opportunities in ASEAN,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> initiate coverage on Thai home improvement player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-global-house-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19449:1" rel="noopener">Siam Global House (GLOBAL TB)</a>. </p><h3>Sector and Thematic Insights</h3><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/in-malaysia-heineken-vs-carlsberg-close" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42940" rel="noopener">In Malaysia: Heineken Vs Carlsberg (Close),</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits this pair trade, which he recommends to close. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesia-banks-vastly-differing-tales" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43031" rel="noopener">Indonesia Banks – Vastly Differing Tales,</a> banking specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> compares tow Indonesian banks, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-danamon-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:135:1" rel="noopener">Bank Danamon Indonesia (BDMN IJ),</a> and finds two very different stories.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-stocks-to-own-in-asean-vol-32" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43064" rel="noopener">The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 32,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> highlights 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to him based upon our FVMR Methodology. His research team constantly reviews the ASEAN markets to try to find interesting ideas based on Fundamentals or Valuation or Momentum or Risk or some combination thereof.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-stocks-to-own-in-thailand-vol-30" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43063" rel="noopener">The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 30,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology. Our research team constantly reviews the Thai market to try to find interesting ideas base upon Fundamentals or Valuation or Momentum or Risk or some combination thereof. </p><h3>Credit Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sritex-tear-sheet-lucror-analytics-89648093-0639-4666-a47c-ac1899e8691d" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43168" rel="noopener">Sritex - Tear Sheet,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/leonard-law-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:7106" rel="noopener">Leonard Law, CFA</a> presents his credit views view on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-rejeki-isman-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20178:1" rel="noopener">Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ)</a> (Sritex). He views Sritex as “High Risk” on the LARA scale.</p>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section. We also include in the detailed section the past week's relevant discussions in ASEAN@Smartkarma
Equity Bottom-Up InsightsIn Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ) - A Wholesome Performance, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits Indonesia's leading dairy player after a conversation with management. In PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ) - ROTI's Exit from Philippines a Positive,Angus Mackintosh revisits Indonesia's largest mass-market bread player after its announcement it would exit the Philippines to focus on its Indonesian home market. In Sido Muncul (SIDO): Switch, Competitor and Split, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Henry Soediarko revisits Indonesian traditional medicine player Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) with an update post it recently announced stock split. In Bluebird (BIRD): Correlated with PSBB, Beneficiary of WFH to WFO Switch, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Henry Soediarko revisits Indonesia's largest taxi operator.In Small-Cap Diary: Singha Hotels, PTG Energy, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA reports back having visited two interesting companies recently, namely S Hotels &amp; Resorts PCL (SHR TB) (Singha Hotels), and Ptg Energy Pcl (PTG TB), the country's second-largest gas station operator.In Sembcorp Marine Rights Issue Results: Looks Like a Scheme of Introduction, events specialist Travis Lundy revisits Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) in the wake of recent announcements. 
In Capitaland Mall and CCT Merger: Circular Finally Out. Looks Done.Travis Lundy revisits this ongoing merger in Singapore. 
 In Singapore Exchange – Taiwan A Standout In August,Brian Freitas circles back to SGX (SGX SP) post its monthly numbers.  In JWD: Entering High Season with Growth Drivers from New Projects, our friends at Country Group revisit JWD Infologistics (JWD TB) in Thailand. In GLOBAL: Home-Improvement Player Eyes Opportunities in ASEAN,Country Group initiate coverage on Thai home improvement player Siam Global House (GLOBAL TB). Sector and Thematic InsightsIn Malaysia: Heineken Vs Carlsberg (Close), CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits this pair trade, which he recommends to close. In Indonesia Banks – Vastly Differing Tales, banking specialist Daniel Tabbush compares tow Indonesian banks, Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) and Bank Danamon Indonesia (BDMN IJ), and finds two very different stories.In The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 32,Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA highlights 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to him based upon our FVMR Methodology. His research team constantly reviews the ASEAN markets to try to find interesting ideas based on Fundamentals or Valuation or Momentum or Risk or some combination thereof.In The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 30,Dr Andrew Stotz, CFA highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology. Our research team constantly reviews the Thai market to try to find interesting ideas base upon Fundamentals or Valuation or Momentum or Risk or some combination thereof. Credit InsightsIn Sritex - Tear Sheet,Leonard Law, CFA presents his credit views view on Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ) (Sritex). He views Sritex as “High Risk” on the LARA scale.

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Indonesian Dairy, Bank Central Asia, and Thai Picks

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-ind-trading" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ)</a> saw a more pronounced impact from COVID-19 in 2Q2020, with a decline in growth for UHT milk with UHT white milk seeing better performance than flavoured products. This can be attributed to people working and breakfasting from home with PSBB measures in place, which also drove higher demand for larger size packets.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-ind-trading" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ)</a> did not see the usual benefits this year from Lebaran with packaged tea hit particularly hard, given far fewer people travelling due to the Mudik ban (return to home village). Normally Teh Kotak is a popular drink to pick up for long journeys. </p>
<p>July saw a slight pick-up in milk sales with some relaxation of PSBB measures from mid-June but it is too soon to read the performance for August. We would suggest a continuing rebound in sales of flavoured milk, as the population start to become more mobile again.</p>
<p>We also expect a gradual pick up in sales of Teh Kotak packet tea sales as employees return to working from the office again, albeit at a reduced intensity to start with.</p>
<p>Increased capacity for large size packets will also help to drive UHT white and flavoured milk growth, given greater demand due to WFH and schooling from home, especially for breakfasting.  </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-ind-trading" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ)</a> is likely to see a marginally slower growth performance this year but a rebound in earnings should be expected in 2H2020, driven by a move to a "new normal" in Indonesia and a gradual opening up of the economy. It is unlikely that it will adjust prices higher in September this year, which may slow growth prospects slightly. Valuations remain attractive with the company trading on 16.4x FY21E PER versus its peer group average of 26x forward PER. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-ind-trading" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ)</a> remains a core staple holding in Indonesia. </p>

Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ) saw a more pronounced impact from COVID-19 in 2Q2020, with a decline in growth for UHT milk with UHT white milk seeing better performance than flavoured products. This can be attributed to people working and breakfasting from home with PSBB measures in place, which also drove higher demand for larger size packets.
Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ) did not see the usual benefits this year from Lebaran with packaged tea hit particularly hard, given far fewer people travelling due to the Mudik ban (return to home village). Normally Teh Kotak is a popular drink to pick up for long journeys. 
July saw a slight pick-up in milk sales with some relaxation of PSBB measures from mid-June but it is too soon to read the performance for August. We would suggest a continuing rebound in sales of flavoured milk, as the population start to become more mobile again.
We also expect a gradual pick up in sales of Teh Kotak packet tea sales as employees return to working from the office again, albeit at a reduced intensity to start with.
Increased capacity for large size packets will also help to drive UHT white and flavoured milk growth, given greater demand due to WFH and schooling from home, especially for breakfasting.  
Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ) is likely to see a marginally slower growth performance this year but a rebound in earnings should be expected in 2H2020, driven by a move to a "new normal" in Indonesia and a gradual opening up of the economy. It is unlikely that it will adjust prices higher in September this year, which may slow growth prospects slightly. Valuations remain attractive with the company trading on 16.4x FY21E PER versus its peer group average of 26x forward PER. Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ) remains a core staple holding in Indonesia. 

Ultrajaya Milk Ind & Trading (ULTJ IJ) - A Wholesome Performance

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The latest report from AC Niesen Indonesia is entitled "Meet the new consumer" and looks into the changing behaviour of Indonesia's consumers in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic. </p>
<p>These changes will have a pronounced impact on the retail landscape in Indonesia and the way that the population consumes, with a lot more already going online and much more focus on health with more financial restraint. </p>
<p>A number of consumer behaviours developed during the pandemic will stick as we enter the new normal period, with 16% of those surveyed by AC Nielsen suggesting they will not visit the mall even under the new normal. </p>
<p>We remain positive on consumer staples and healthcare stocks including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unilever-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:231:1" rel="noopener">Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-cbp-sukses-makmur-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17651:1" rel="noopener">Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ),</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-keluarga-karyasehat-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:288:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ)</a> and consumer discretionary name <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a> for the recovery. </p>

The latest report from AC Niesen Indonesia is entitled "Meet the new consumer" and looks into the changing behaviour of Indonesia's consumers in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic. 
These changes will have a pronounced impact on the retail landscape in Indonesia and the way that the population consumes, with a lot more already going online and much more focus on health with more financial restraint. 
A number of consumer behaviours developed during the pandemic will stick as we enter the new normal period, with 16% of those surveyed by AC Nielsen suggesting they will not visit the mall even under the new normal. 
We remain positive on consumer staples and healthcare stocks including Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ),Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ), Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ),Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ) and consumer discretionary name Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) for the recovery. 

Indonesian Consumers - This Transformation Is Forever - BUY Staples and Healthcare

<p>It's been two months since Indonesia admitted that COVID-19 had reached its hallowed shores.  The country started to encourage social distancing measures together with WFH and school from home in mid-March. The Government also stopped foreign nationals from coming to Indonesia but did not institute full lockdown in any major cities, although PSBB (large scale social distancing) measures have been increased and broadened.</p>
<p>President Jokowi earlier announced a ban on "Mudik" or the annual exodus that the population normally makes to their home villages and towns. This has probably gone some way in stemming a rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.  Civil servants had already been told not to return to home towns (pulang kampung). Mudik would have exacerbated the COVID-19 situation in a big way with millions of potential super spreaders migrating to every corner of the country.</p>
<p>No doubt that there was some early shift of people back to their hometowns to beat the ban. In many cases because individuals lost their jobs or their small business was no longer able to function. This was backed up by recent comments from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata (EXCL IJ)</a>, who confirmed that this was being reflected in their network usage. </p>
<p>The economic impact is already being measured in terms of jobs lost with Finance Minister, Sri Muliani estimating that in the worst-case that a projected 3.78 million people could fall into poverty and 5.2 million could lose their jobs.</p>
<p>The IMF has recently lowered Indonesia’s GDP growth projection to +0.5% from +5.1% in its October 2019 projection, with the governments official forecast still standing at +2.5% GDP growth for 2020E. </p>
<p>The COVID-19 curve in terms of growth in new infections does seem to be flattening and the government is suggesting some easing of PSBB in June, with the economy back to business by the end of July. This would be a good result and we need to continue to track new cases to be sure.</p>
<p>We would continue to take a defensive stance on the Indonesian market, with a positive view on consumer staples and especially <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unilever-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:231:1" rel="noopener">Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ)</a>, defensive banks, telcos, and media companies. Consumer discretionary companies, commodities, and property players will continue to face a challenging situation although longer-term high-quality companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a> should be bought on weakness, as valuations have hit distressed levels.</p>

It's been two months since Indonesia admitted that COVID-19 had reached its hallowed shores.  The country started to encourage social distancing measures together with WFH and school from home in mid-March. The Government also stopped foreign nationals from coming to Indonesia but did not institute full lockdown in any major cities, although PSBB (large scale social distancing) measures have been increased and broadened.
President Jokowi earlier announced a ban on "Mudik" or the annual exodus that the population normally makes to their home villages and towns. This has probably gone some way in stemming a rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.  Civil servants had already been told not to return to home towns (pulang kampung). Mudik would have exacerbated the COVID-19 situation in a big way with millions of potential super spreaders migrating to every corner of the country.
No doubt that there was some early shift of people back to their hometowns to beat the ban. In many cases because individuals lost their jobs or their small business was no longer able to function. This was backed up by recent comments from XL Axiata (EXCL IJ), who confirmed that this was being reflected in their network usage. 
The economic impact is already being measured in terms of jobs lost with Finance Minister, Sri Muliani estimating that in the worst-case that a projected 3.78 million people could fall into poverty and 5.2 million could lose their jobs.
The IMF has recently lowered Indonesia’s GDP growth projection to +0.5% from +5.1% in its October 2019 projection, with the governments official forecast still standing at +2.5% GDP growth for 2020E. 
The COVID-19 curve in terms of growth in new infections does seem to be flattening and the government is suggesting some easing of PSBB in June, with the economy back to business by the end of July. This would be a good result and we need to continue to track new cases to be sure.
We would continue to take a defensive stance on the Indonesian market, with a positive view on consumer staples and especially Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ), defensive banks, telcos, and media companies. Consumer discretionary companies, commodities, and property players will continue to face a challenging situation although longer-term high-quality companies like Astra International (ASII IJ) and Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) should be bought on weakness, as valuations have hit distressed levels.

CrossASEAN Strategy - The Penny Drops for Indonesia - Buy Staples

Indonesia

PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry and Trading Company Tbk operates in the food and beverage industry. The Company produces aseptic drinks such as liquid milk, fruit juices and health drinks. Ultrajaya Milk also produces butter, powder milk and sweet condensed milk.

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Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ)

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Indonesia's Recovery and the Next Digital Darling

The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across SE...

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The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Indonesian Dairy, Bank Central Asia, and Thai Picks

The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South...

Angus Mackintosh

Ultrajaya Milk Ind & Trading (ULTJ IJ) - A Wholesome Performance

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Angus Mackintosh

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The latest report from AC Niesen Indonesia is entitled "Meet the new consumer" and looks into the changing behaviour of Indonesia's consumers in...

Angus Mackintosh

CrossASEAN Strategy - The Penny Drops for Indonesia - Buy Staples

It's been two months since Indonesia admitted that COVID-19 had reached its hallowed shores. The country started to encourage social distancing...

Angus Mackintosh

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