Emerging Market Economist, Emerginomics

Tatiana Orlova

Emerging Market Economist

Emerginomics

Cross Asset Strategy

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<p>Ukraine is holding a presidential election on 31 March, to be followed by a parliamentary election in late October. In recent weeks, actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky emerged as the presidential candidate with the highest support among the public. However, in our central scenario, he is unlikely to win in the first round. In the run-off, he will probably compete with Yulia Tymoshenko or incumbent Petro Poroshenko. Meanwhile, we note worrying signs of backsliding on recent reform, which may lead to a delay or freezing of the current IMF programme. The risks of poor performance by Ukrainian assets in the coming month seem to be rising.</p>
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Ukraine is holding a presidential election on 31 March, to be followed by a parliamentary election in late October. In recent weeks, actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky emerged as the presidential candidate with the highest support among the public. However, in our central scenario, he is unlikely to win in the first round. In the run-off, he will probably compete with Yulia Tymoshenko or incumbent Petro Poroshenko. Meanwhile, we note worrying signs of backsliding on recent reform, which may lead to a delay or freezing of the current IMF programme. The risks of poor performance by Ukrainian assets in the coming month seem to be rising.


Ukraine Is Bracing for a Hard Choice Between the Incumbent President, a Populist and a Comedian

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<p>Tensions in the Azov Sea are calming down after US President Trump cancelled his meeting with Russian President Putin at the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires. The Ukrainian government has reached a final stage of negotiations on a new Stand-By Loan with the IMF, and it expects to receive the first tranche in the next few weeks. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian markets are pricing in an increased geopolitical premium ahead of Ukraine's presidential election in March. There are signs of Ukraine's enforcement bodies increasing pressure on the Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine. The beginning of the process of splitting the Ukrainian Orthodox Church from the Russian Orthodox Church may cause a new crisis in the relationship between Russia and Ukraine. </p>
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Tensions in the Azov Sea are calming down after US President Trump cancelled his meeting with Russian President Putin at the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires. The Ukrainian government has reached a final stage of negotiations on a new Stand-By Loan with the IMF, and it expects to receive the first tranche in the next few weeks. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian markets are pricing in an increased geopolitical premium ahead of Ukraine's presidential election in March. There are signs of Ukraine's enforcement bodies increasing pressure on the Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine. The beginning of the process of splitting the Ukrainian Orthodox Church from the Russian Orthodox Church may cause a new crisis in the relationship between Russia and Ukraine. 


Ukraine Is About to Secure New IMF Loan. But Markets Remain Nervous, and for a Good Reason

Ukraine

The Ukrainian hryvnia is the official currency of Ukraine.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Ukraine Is Bracing for a Hard Choice Between the Incumbent President, a Populist and a Comedian

Ukraine is holding a presidential election on 31 March, to be followed by a parliamentary election in late October. In recent weeks, actor and...

Tatiana Orlova

Ukraine Is About to Secure New IMF Loan. But Markets Remain Nervous, and for a Good Reason

Tensions in the Azov Sea are calming down after US President Trump cancelled his meeting with Russian President Putin at the G-20 summit in Buenos...

Tatiana Orlova

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52-week Range

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