Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is bullish and will continue to be as long as there is an absence of breakdowns. On the other hand, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50 and Japan’s TOPIX have struggled to break above resistance and their RS remains near the lows -- be selective. In addition to covering important technical levels across all markets, we highlight additional ideas in the following Sectors: Services, Communications, Industrials, and Transportation.

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is bullish and will continue to be as long as there is an absence of breakdowns. On the other hand, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50 and Japan’s TOPIX have struggled to break above resistance and their RS remains near the lows -- be selective. In addition to covering important technical levels across all markets, we highlight additional ideas in the following Sectors: Services, Communications, Industrials, and Transportation.

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Capital is quitting the US dollar, with Europe the main host for these outflows</li>
<li>Latest outflows represent a structural unwind of the 2012-19 capital surge into the USD</li>
<li>US dollar trade-weighted index could easily slide another 10%. 20% is possible</li>
<li>Gold and (to lesser extent) Euro are main beneficiaries. Gold could test US$2500/oz.</li>
</ul>


Capital is quitting the US dollar, with Europe the main host for these outflows
Latest outflows represent a structural unwind of the 2012-19 capital surge into the USD
US dollar trade-weighted index could easily slide another 10%. 20% is possible
Gold and (to lesser extent) Euro are main beneficiaries. Gold could test US$2500/oz.


Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance remains higher for global equities (MSCI ACWI). As long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US) are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we believe a positive outlook is warranted. Support levels to watch include $75 on ACWI-US, $44 on ACWX-US, $41 on EEM-US, and $60 on EFA-US. We recap significant technical levels across major markets and highlight specific opportunities within the Technology and Materials Sectors.

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance remains higher for global equities (MSCI ACWI). As long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US) are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we believe a positive outlook is warranted. Support levels to watch include $75 on ACWI-US, $44 on ACWX-US, $41 on EEM-US, and $60 on EFA-US. We recap significant technical levels across major markets and highlight specific opportunities within the Technology and Materials Sectors.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/u-s-dollar-index-usdx" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26018:1" rel="noopener">Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)</a> is moving into over sold levels near 94 support and setting up for a rally that will add pressure to Asian indexes at cap resistance levels (Nikkei 23k, Korea 300, Tawian 12,500 and KLSE 1,600, representing ceiling resistances that align with EEM 44-45.EEM RSI has is coming off of major top resistance with divergence (not confirming recent EEM new price highs).USD net shorts are reaching for support that has induce dollar rallies in the past and Euro speculative net longs are hitting peak levels associated with a rally exhaustion. USD has already make key lows in Asia and EM that is front running an EEM cycle peak. China A50 15k wobble is a key input for EEM.

Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY) is moving into over sold levels near 94 support and setting up for a rally that will add pressure to Asian indexes at cap resistance levels (Nikkei 23k, Korea 300, Tawian 12,500 and KLSE 1,600, representing ceiling resistances that align with EEM 44-45.EEM RSI has is coming off of major top resistance with divergence (not confirming recent EEM new price highs).USD net shorts are reaching for support that has induce dollar rallies in the past and Euro speculative net longs are hitting peak levels associated with a rally exhaustion. USD has already make key lows in Asia and EM that is front running an EEM cycle peak. China A50 15k wobble is a key input for EEM.

EEM Top as USD Finds Oversold Rally Support

<ul>
<li>Rising Liquidity drives higher gold price</li>
<li>Gold looks undervalued  against existing pool of liquidity</li>
<li>Liquidity itself is too low relative to massive debt burden (US 370% GDP)</li>
<li>Large outstanding stock of debt implies that gold price could rise to US$2500/oz</li>
<li>Gold price could be 40% undervalued</li>
</ul>


Rising Liquidity drives higher gold price
Gold looks undervalued  against existing pool of liquidity
Liquidity itself is too low relative to massive debt burden (US 370% GDP)
Large outstanding stock of debt implies that gold price could rise to US$2500/oz
Gold price could be 40% undervalued


United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

Price Gauge
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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is...

Vermilion Research

Global Capital Is Quitting The Dollar

Capital is quitting the US dollar, with Europe the main host for these outflows Latest outflows represent a structural unwind of the 2012-19...

Michael J. Howell

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance remains higher for global equities (MSCI ACWI). As long as...

Vermilion Research

EEM Top as USD Finds Oversold Rally Support

Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY) is moving into over sold levels near 94 support and setting up for a rally that will add pressure to Asian indexes at cap...

Thomas Schroeder

Could Gold Be 40% Undervalued?

Rising Liquidity drives higher gold price Gold looks undervalued against existing pool of liquidity Liquidity itself is too low relative to...

Michael J. Howell

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