Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Over the past several weeks Gold &amp; Silver should have gone lower in the face of hawkish central banks and rising yields</li>
<li>The USD should also have gone much higher. Neither transpired and we now sit here with almost 4 hikes priced for this year by the Fed.</li>
<li>Sometimes it is as important to identify what a market does NOT do rather than what it does...</li>
</ul>


Over the past several weeks Gold &amp; Silver should have gone lower in the face of hawkish central banks and rising yields
The USD should also have gone much higher. Neither transpired and we now sit here with almost 4 hikes priced for this year by the Fed.
Sometimes it is as important to identify what a market does NOT do rather than what it does...


Bullion – “Should Have, Would Have, Didn’t, so Won’t.”

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>DXY bullish flat set to break higher to DXY 98. USD in EM has met pullback targets that allows for a fresh rally cycle in January.</li>
<li>USD in Asia has met key long support with some undershooting in the SGD and INR.</li>
<li>A fresh USD rally in EM supports our bearish EEM theme that aligns with our bearish China/HK bet. US 10yr yield is geared for a major breakout above 1.69%.</li>
</ul>


DXY bullish flat set to break higher to DXY 98. USD in EM has met pullback targets that allows for a fresh rally cycle in January.
USD in Asia has met key long support with some undershooting in the SGD and INR.
A fresh USD rally in EM supports our bearish EEM theme that aligns with our bearish China/HK bet. US 10yr yield is geared for a major breakout above 1.69%.


Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>I reiterate the risk that the dollar can strengthen in the near term by being on one of the two ends of the dollar smile, thus weighing on EM currencies.</li>
<li>On the positive side, the dollar strengthening should not last since the currency is already expensive in REER terms. Also, long speculative positions in the dollar are already quite heavy.</li>
<li>Since positions tend to follow dollar moves, whenever the dollar starts weakening, the unwinding of long positions can exacerbate the move, making it a supportive environment for EM currencies.</li>
</ul>


I reiterate the risk that the dollar can strengthen in the near term by being on one of the two ends of the dollar smile, thus weighing on EM currencies.
On the positive side, the dollar strengthening should not last since the currency is already expensive in REER terms. Also, long speculative positions in the dollar are already quite heavy.
Since positions tend to follow dollar moves, whenever the dollar starts weakening, the unwinding of long positions can exacerbate the move, making it a supportive environment for EM currencies.


Speculative Long Dollar Positions Highest Since 2019

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>
 US Fed is ‘behind the curve’ on inflation: More importantly, the US Fed is ‘behind the crowd’ in tightening policy </li>
<li>World bond markets seem to believe there will be a sharp policy shock. We question whether the current US Fed has the fortitude to do this?</li>
<li>The 'likely' fudge will create volatility, but it should present another 'buy the dip' opportunity</li>
</ul>



 US Fed is ‘behind the curve’ on inflation: More importantly, the US Fed is ‘behind the crowd’ in tightening policy 
World bond markets seem to believe there will be a sharp policy shock. We question whether the current US Fed has the fortitude to do this?
The 'likely' fudge will create volatility, but it should present another 'buy the dip' opportunity


The US Fed Is ‘Behind The Crowd’ And Not Just Behind The Curve

<ul>
<li>The volatility of the US dollar has risen sharply in recent weeks with the dollar appreciating strongly starting in early November but coming off the highs on the Omicron variant.</li>
<li>I expect the dollar's volatility to stay high whether the Omicron variant turns out to be as big a threat to the economic recovery as feared or not.</li>
<li>For EM currencies, the environment is therefore likely to be less supportive and it's best to hedge exposures with the euro and consider beta-neutral relative-value trades.</li>
</ul>


The volatility of the US dollar has risen sharply in recent weeks with the dollar appreciating strongly starting in early November but coming off the highs on the Omicron variant.
I expect the dollar's volatility to stay high whether the Omicron variant turns out to be as big a threat to the economic recovery as feared or not.
For EM currencies, the environment is therefore likely to be less supportive and it's best to hedge exposures with the euro and consider beta-neutral relative-value trades.


Implications of Higher Dollar Volatility for EM Currencies

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

Price Gauge
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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Bullion – “Should Have, Would Have, Didn’t, so Won’t.”

There have been lots of reasons for Gold & Silver to trend down recently. However they have both remained resilient. It is thus time to re-examine...

Shyam Devani

USD to Break Higher

DXY bullish flat set to break higher to DXY 98. USD in EM has met pullback targets that allows for a fresh rally cycle in January.

Thomas Schroeder

Speculative Long Dollar Positions Highest Since 2019

Long speculative positions in the dollar are quite heavy implying that whenever the dollar starts weakening, the unwinding of long positions can...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

The US Fed Is ‘Behind The Crowd’ And Not Just Behind The Curve

Fed is serious 'behind the curve' on fighting inflation, but as worryingly it is also 'behind the crowd' in tightening liquidity. Expect a 'fudged'...

Michael J. Howell

Implications of Higher Dollar Volatility for EM Currencies

With the US dollar volatility rising, the environment for EM currencies has turned less supportive and it's best to hedge exposures with the euro...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)