Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*Train Wreck: The Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) is keeping interest rates low, and failed to raise interest rates at its latest meeting last week – against consensus of a 200 bp increase. In our view, low rates are likely to result in modest inflation. Despite what feel like punitive capital controls, the Turkish lira (TRY) actually declined 2% on day – nearing 8 TRY/USD achieving another record low and down 35% YTD versus the USD; *Artificially High Turkish Lira: CBT data exhibits that the easing of trading restrictions resulted in foreign investor selling nearly 70% of their previously held Turkish government bonds and equities YTD. Investors are likely to continue to take advantage of President Erdogan's ineptitude of an artificially high TRY by continuing to sell while the getting is still good; and *Continue Reducing Risk: Turkish banks and the Turkish economy should be sold, and if the former Vice President Joe Biden actually wins the White house this could be the end of the TRY.

*Train Wreck: The Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) is keeping interest rates low, and failed to raise interest rates at its latest meeting last week – against consensus of a 200 bp increase. In our view, low rates are likely to result in modest inflation. Despite what feel like punitive capital controls, the Turkish lira (TRY) actually declined 2% on day – nearing 8 TRY/USD achieving another record low and down 35% YTD versus the USD; *Artificially High Turkish Lira: CBT data exhibits that the easing of trading restrictions resulted in foreign investor selling nearly 70% of their previously held Turkish government bonds and equities YTD. Investors are likely to continue to take advantage of President Erdogan's ineptitude of an artificially high TRY by continuing to sell while the getting is still good; and *Continue Reducing Risk: Turkish banks and the Turkish economy should be sold, and if the former Vice President Joe Biden actually wins the White house this could be the end of the TRY.

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>The fallout from the Oil price wars has sent Energy allocations in GEM active portfolios towards their all-time lows. The average EM fund now holds a 4.33% weight in Energy stocks, close to the low of 4.06% in December 2015.</li>
<li>Sentiment in EM Energy stocks is by far the worst of any sector, with positioning at the very low end of the historical range, coupled with negative manager activity since the end of 2019.</li>
<li>Allocations are dominated by the BRIC nations of Russia, India, China and Brazil. Together, they account for 83% of all exposure in the Energy sector and are the mostly widely held countries by far.</li>
<li>On a company level, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lukoil-pjsc-2bfe0130-461e-4ff3-af12-93bec12e6325" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27148:1" rel="noopener">LUKOIL (LKOH RM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a> are the most widely owned stocks, held by 57% and 39% of funds respectively. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lukoil-pjsc-2bfe0130-461e-4ff3-af12-93bec12e6325" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27148:1" rel="noopener">LUKOIL (LKOH RM)</a> is the only significant overweight holding (+0.32%) whilst GEM managers hold sizeable underweights in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gazprom-pjsc-6a7231a9-d5e4-4da4-bf21-aa1b9d50fbf8" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27578:1" rel="noopener">Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RM)</a> (-0.33%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:198:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Industries (RIL IN)</a> (-0.38%).</li>
<li>On a style basis, holding levels are largely correlated to investor style, with Value funds the largest Energy holders followed by Yield, GARP and Growth investors. All style groups are holding close to their lowest allocations in Energy since 2007.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lukoil-pjsc-2bfe0130-461e-4ff3-af12-93bec12e6325" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27148:1" rel="noopener">LUKOIL (LKOH RM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:198:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Industries (RIL IN)</a> are emerging as the favorite stocks among EM investors and have seen funds buying in to recent weakness.  They are both also notable holdings among Aggressive Growth and Growth investors. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a> is preferred by the more Value oriented funds</li>
</ul>


The fallout from the Oil price wars has sent Energy allocations in GEM active portfolios towards their all-time lows. The average EM fund now holds a 4.33% weight in Energy stocks, close to the low of 4.06% in December 2015.
Sentiment in EM Energy stocks is by far the worst of any sector, with positioning at the very low end of the historical range, coupled with negative manager activity since the end of 2019.
Allocations are dominated by the BRIC nations of Russia, India, China and Brazil. Together, they account for 83% of all exposure in the Energy sector and are the mostly widely held countries by far.
On a company level, LUKOIL (LKOH RM) and CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) are the most widely owned stocks, held by 57% and 39% of funds respectively. LUKOIL (LKOH RM) is the only significant overweight holding (+0.32%) whilst GEM managers hold sizeable underweights in Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RM) (-0.33%) and Reliance Industries (RIL IN) (-0.38%).
On a style basis, holding levels are largely correlated to investor style, with Value funds the largest Energy holders followed by Yield, GARP and Growth investors. All style groups are holding close to their lowest allocations in Energy since 2007.  

LUKOIL (LKOH RM) and Reliance Industries (RIL IN) are emerging as the favorite stocks among EM investors and have seen funds buying in to recent weakness.  They are both also notable holdings among Aggressive Growth and Growth investors. CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) is preferred by the more Value oriented funds


EM Energy:  Sentiment Depressed.  Reliance Industries/Lukoil Bucking the Trend

Turkey

Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS refines petroleum.  The Company produces LPG, naphtha, gasoline, diesel fuel, fuel, heating oil, jet fuel, lubricants, and asphalt.  Tupras operates refineries in Izmit, Izmir, Kirikkale, and Batman. The Company imports and exports petroleum products.

Tupras-Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri (TUPRS TI)

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Tupras-Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri (TUPRS TI)

Turkey – Choo Choo

TURKEY: A Crisis Is Coming As a Result of Strongman President Erdogan's Inability to See The forest From The Trees. Rates Too High, Artificially...

Thomas J. Monaco

EM Energy: Sentiment Depressed. Reliance Industries/Lukoil Bucking the Trend

The fallout from the Oil price wars has sent Energy allocations in GEM active portfolios towards their all-time lows. The average EM fund now...

Steven Holden

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52-week Range

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