External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Maintain BUY. Tuhu’s 2H24 earnings were largely in line with our expectation.</li><li>We find that the profitability of Tuhu’s franchised stores has been better than most auto after-market peers’, as more than 90% of Tuhu’s stores operating for over six months made profits in FY24.</li><li>Although it remains challenging for Tuhu to achieve a YoY increase in single-store revenue metrics amid macro uncertainties, we believe store number expansion could continue to drive revenue growth over the next few years. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain BUY. Tuhu’s 2H24 earnings were largely in line with our expectation.We find that the profitability of Tuhu’s franchised stores has been better than most auto after-market peers’, as more than 90% of Tuhu’s stores operating for over six months made profits in FY24.Although it remains challenging for Tuhu to achieve a YoY increase in single-store revenue metrics amid macro uncertainties, we believe store number expansion could continue to drive revenue growth over the next few years. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tuhu Car (9690 HK) - Still Better Positioned than Most Rivals

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tuhu-car-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36012:1" rel="noopener">Tuhu Car (9690 HK)</a> is poised to capture the lion share of China's automotive aftersales service industry that is forecasted to grow at 7.3% CAGR from 2023:30. </li>
<li>Tuhu is on an inflection of high earnings growth (+30% CAGR) as it has reached scalability, cost efficiency, and its younger shops are maturing profitably.    </li>
<li>Our fair value of HKD24 implies 25x FY25 PE - average for US peers. A bargain with 3-year CAGR of 30%, net cash, and churns high free cash flow.</li>
</ul>



Tuhu Car (9690 HK) is poised to capture the lion share of China's automotive aftersales service industry that is forecasted to grow at 7.3% CAGR from 2023:30. 
Tuhu is on an inflection of high earnings growth (+30% CAGR) as it has reached scalability, cost efficiency, and its younger shops are maturing profitably.    
Our fair value of HKD24 implies 25x FY25 PE - average for US peers. A bargain with 3-year CAGR of 30%, net cash, and churns high free cash flow.


Tuhu Car (9690 HK | BUY | TP:HKD24): Poised to Capture China's Auto Aftersales Service Market

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>In this report, we summarize the Mar 2025 price discounts at dealers for major automakers.</li><li>Note that Mar discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Feb 2025 retail sales volume for each model, as Mar 2025 retail sales volume data have not been released yet.</li><li>The industrywide average discounts narrowed by 0.1ppts MoM in Mar 2025, based on our calculations, thanks to the narrowing discounts from some German brands (VW, Audi). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In this report, we summarize the Mar 2025 price discounts at dealers for major automakers.Note that Mar discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Feb 2025 retail sales volume for each model, as Mar 2025 retail sales volume data have not been released yet.The industrywide average discounts narrowed by 0.1ppts MoM in Mar 2025, based on our calculations, thanks to the narrowing discounts from some German brands (VW, Audi). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - 1Q25 Sales Volume, Discounts May Lead to Larger Earnings Divergence

<ul><li>We are of the view that 4Q24 earnings of Geely, BYD and Li Auto could continue to be more resilient than most peers.</li><li>Net losses of Xpeng could narrow QoQ in 4Q24, while that of NIO may continue to widen QoQ, in our view.</li><li>Leapmotor turned profitable for the first time on a quarterly basis in 4Q24, stronger than most investors’ expectation. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We are of the view that 4Q24 earnings of Geely, BYD and Li Auto could continue to be more resilient than most peers.Net losses of Xpeng could narrow QoQ in 4Q24, while that of NIO may continue to widen QoQ, in our view.Leapmotor turned profitable for the first time on a quarterly basis in 4Q24, stronger than most investors’ expectation. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - 4Q24 Earnings Preview: Growing Divergence

<ul><li>We summarize the Dec 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.</li><li>Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15-18 stores for each brand) in 15 cities in China.</li><li>The following data reflect same-store metrics, and the metrics on a company level could be better than these figures, as most players are still expanding their sales network.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Dec 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15-18 stores for each brand) in 15 cities in China.The following data reflect same-store metrics, and the metrics on a company level could be better than these figures, as most players are still expanding their sales network.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - Jan 2025 NEV Sales to Fall MoM Despite Solid Dec Leading Indicators

China

TUHU Car Inc. offers automotive services. The Company develops leading integrated online and offline platform which provides automotive maintenance, repair, detailing, and more. TUHU Car provides its services throughout Hong Kong.

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Tuhu Car (9690 HK)

Tuhu Car (9690 HK) - Still Better Positioned than Most Rivals

We find that the profitability of Tuhu’s franchised stores has been better than most auto after-market peers’, as more than 90% of Tuhu’s stores...

CMB International

Tuhu Car (9690 HK | BUY | TP:HKD24): Poised to Capture China's Auto Aftersales Service Market

Tuhu Car (9690 HK) set to dominate China's automotive aftersales industry with high earnings growth potential and attractive valuation.

Mohshin Aziz

Auto - 1Q25 Sales Volume, Discounts May Lead to Larger Earnings Divergence

Note that Mar discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Feb 2025 retail sales volume for each model

CMB International

Auto - 4Q24 Earnings Preview: Growing Divergence

We are of the view that 4Q24 earnings of Geely, BYD and Li Auto could continue to be more resilient than most peers. Net losses of Xpeng could...

CMB International

Auto - Jan 2025 NEV Sales to Fall MoM Despite Solid Dec Leading Indicators

We summarize the Dec 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li...

CMB International

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Tuhu Car (9690 HK) - Still Better Positioned than Most Rivals

We find that the profitability of Tuhu’s franchised stores has been better than most auto after-market peers’, as more than 90% of Tuhu’s stores...

CMB International

Tuhu Car (9690 HK | BUY | TP:HKD24): Poised to Capture China's Auto Aftersales Service Market

​Tuhu Car (9690 HK) set to dominate China's automotive aftersales industry with high earnings growth potential and attractive valuation.

Mohshin Aziz

Auto - 1Q25 Sales Volume, Discounts May Lead to Larger Earnings Divergence

Note that Mar discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Feb 2025 retail sales volume for each model

CMB International

Auto - 4Q24 Earnings Preview: Growing Divergence

We are of the view that 4Q24 earnings of Geely, BYD and Li Auto could continue to be more resilient than most peers. Net losses of Xpeng could...

CMB International

Auto - Jan 2025 NEV Sales to Fall MoM Despite Solid Dec Leading Indicators

We summarize the Dec 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li...

CMB International

Tuhu Car (9690 HK) set to dominate China's automotive aftersales industry with high earnings growth potential and attractive valuation.