Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

A surprisingly poor employment report in the US became the central focus among investors across the globe on Friday. In May the US added just 38,000 jobs, well under the expected 156,000.A poor jobs report has triggered widespread concerns that a weak external environment is starting to feed through to infect the US economy. These concerns reflect the risk of what we define as a ‘bad de-polarization’ playing out in the global economy.Currently the global economy is extremely polarized (there is a large divergence between the health of the worlds strongest and weakest economies). As the global economy de-polarizes the health of the weakest economies will rise to converge with that of the strongest economies (a good de-polarization) or vice versa.

A surprisingly poor employment report in the US became the central focus among investors across the globe on Friday. In May the US added just 38,000 jobs, well under the expected 156,000.A poor jobs report has triggered widespread concerns that a weak external environment is starting to feed through to infect the US economy. These concerns reflect the risk of what we define as a ‘bad de-polarization’ playing out in the global economy.Currently the global economy is extremely polarized (there is a large divergence between the health of the worlds strongest and weakest economies). As the global economy de-polarizes the health of the weakest economies will rise to converge with that of the strongest economies (a good de-polarization) or vice versa.

Bad Jobs Report Good For Some EMs, Great For Others

CSI Deteriorates in May On Policy Uncertainty <ul>
<li>In May the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a level of 114.2, below the key threshold of 116 separating rationally pessimistic consumers from panicking consumers. </li>
<li>
Deterioration in the CSI during May stems from growing uncertainty over the future path of China’s monetary policy. As the urgent need for deleveraging has become apparent a mysterious article published by an anonymous 'authoritative figure' in the People's Daily…</li>
</ul>

CSI Deteriorates in May On Policy Uncertainty 
In May the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a level of 114.2, below the key threshold of 116 separating rationally pessimistic consumers from panicking consumers. 

Deterioration in the CSI during May stems from growing uncertainty over the future path of China’s monetary policy. As the urgent need for deleveraging has become apparent a mysterious article published by an anonymous 'authoritative figure' in the People's Daily…


China Consumer Sentiment Snapshot - Urgent Need for Deleveraging Becomes Apparent

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Despite the promise of online retailing and its rapid growth, there are worrying signs that point to either a coming slowdown, data discrepancies, or unsustainable shifts in consumer behavior.  Though it is too soon to say for sure, what is happening, the warning signs are there.

Despite the promise of online retailing and its rapid growth, there are worrying signs that point to either a coming slowdown, data discrepancies, or unsustainable shifts in consumer behavior.  Though it is too soon to say for sure, what is happening, the warning signs are there.

<ol><li>Given the available data, we believe it indicates that Chinese consumer growth remains positive but significantly weaker than headline official numbers indicate.</li><li>Large retailers appear to be suffering near zero growth across a variety of products.</li><li>Online retailing is still growing rapidly but its rate of growth is slowing and remains responsible for only 10.6% of spending.</li><li>Due to the weakness in large retailers and strong but small market share of online retailers, this leaves only small and medium size retailers as driving official retail sales numbers. We find this a dubious conclusion.</li><li>The combined retail sales and physical output of consumer product data implies that retail and consumer spending is growing much closer to the 3-6% range than the official 11% retail sales growth.</li><li>Related services like transport and hotel is showing significant weakness that is more reflective of an overall weak retail and services sector.</li></ol>

Given the available data, we believe it indicates that Chinese consumer growth remains positive but significantly weaker than headline official numbers indicate.Large retailers appear to be suffering near zero growth across a variety of products.Online retailing is still growing rapidly but its rate of growth is slowing and remains responsible for only 10.6% of spending.Due to the weakness in large retailers and strong but small market share of online retailers, this leaves only small and medium size retailers as driving official retail sales numbers. We find this a dubious conclusion.The combined retail sales and physical output of consumer product data implies that retail and consumer spending is growing much closer to the 3-6% range than the official 11% retail sales growth.Related services like transport and hotel is showing significant weakness that is more reflective of an overall weak retail and services sector.

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Equity Bottom-Up

Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Tsingtao delivered disappointing results for the first half&nbsp;of fiscal 2015, primarily due to intensified competition in China&rsquo;s brewery industry, weak consumer sentiment and its high base in the same period last year.</li><li>Total revenue fell by 5.3% year over year as a result of a 7.4% sales volume decline, with operating profit down 14%.</li><li>We have slashed our 2015 and 2016 earnings estimates by 15% and 18%, respectively, and have lowered our fair value estimate from HKD 46 per share to HKD 37 per share.</li><li>However, we believe that the company&rsquo;s narrow moat, which is based on its strong brand, remains intact. This brand drives a price premium and has enabled the company to earn a return well above its 8.1% cost of capital during the past five years.</li></ul>Analyst: Jennifer SongFull report below the fold...

Tsingtao delivered disappointing results for the first half&nbsp;of fiscal 2015, primarily due to intensified competition in China&rsquo;s brewery industry, weak consumer sentiment and its high base in the same period last year.Total revenue fell by 5.3% year over year as a result of a 7.4% sales volume decline, with operating profit down 14%.We have slashed our 2015 and 2016 earnings estimates by 15% and 18%, respectively, and have lowered our fair value estimate from HKD 46 per share to HKD 37 per share.However, we believe that the company&rsquo;s narrow moat, which is based on its strong brand, remains intact. This brand drives a price premium and has enabled the company to earn a return well above its 8.1% cost of capital during the past five years.Analyst: Jennifer SongFull report below the fold...

Tsingtao Delivers a Disappointing First-Half 2015 Result

China

Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited produces and distributes beer products.  The Company markets its products throughout China and around the world under the Tsingtao Beer brand name.

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Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK)

Bad Jobs Report Good For Some EMs, Great For Others

A surprisingly poor employment report in the US became the central focus among investors across the globe on Friday. In May the US added just...

David Riedel

China Consumer Sentiment Snapshot - Urgent Need for Deleveraging Becomes Apparent

CSI Deteriorates in May On Policy Uncertainty In May the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a level of 114.2, below the key...

David Riedel

The State of Online Retailing in China

Despite the promise of online retailing and its rapid growth, there are worrying signs that point to either a coming slowdown, data discrepancies,...

Christopher Balding

Retail and Consumer Activity in China

Given the available data, we believe it indicates that Chinese consumer growth remains positive but significantly weaker than headline official...

Christopher Balding

Tsingtao Delivers a Disappointing First-Half 2015 Result

Tsingtao delivered disappointing results for the first half of fiscal 2015, primarily due to intensified competition in China’s brewery industry,...

Morningstar, Inc.

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