Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Firms like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/world-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27437:1" rel="noopener">World Co Ltd (3612 JP), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsi-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19259:1" rel="noopener">Tsi Holdings (3608 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/onward-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11370:1" rel="noopener">Onward Holdings (8016 JP)</a>  are facing serious problems adjusting to a new distribution reality for apparel trading in Japan. </p><p>While World is cutting more brands and investing in home decoration and other projects and TSI is focusing on sports and e-commerce (please see our other insights on these changes), Onward is doing all of these things: cutting more brands, investing in non-apparel and beefing up e-commerce sales.</p><p>There is still a long way to go.</p>

Firms like World Co Ltd (3612 JP), Tsi Holdings (3608 JP) and Onward Holdings (8016 JP)  are facing serious problems adjusting to a new distribution reality for apparel trading in Japan. While World is cutting more brands and investing in home decoration and other projects and TSI is focusing on sports and e-commerce (please see our other insights on these changes), Onward is doing all of these things: cutting more brands, investing in non-apparel and beefing up e-commerce sales.There is still a long way to go.

Big Apparel in Trouble: Onward Aims for 30% of Sales from Non-Apparel Brands

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsi-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19259:1" rel="noopener">Tsi Holdings (3608 JP)</a> is one of the leading apparel firms in Japan but was already forced to do some major restructuring well before the pandemic. The latter has caused a serious rethink at the company which will mean further closure of brands and stores and more investment in e-commerce and non-apparel.</p>

Tsi Holdings (3608 JP) is one of the leading apparel firms in Japan but was already forced to do some major restructuring well before the pandemic. The latter has caused a serious rethink at the company which will mean further closure of brands and stores and more investment in e-commerce and non-apparel.

Big Apparel in Trouble: TSI Wins on E-Commerce but Closes More Brands

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>By 2019, many retailers and brands were already introducing new technology solutions to make up for labour shortages. Despite the crisis, shortages continue to be a major headache in the service sector and the downturn in trading since March has only accelerated efforts to replace staff with tech.</p><p>This could create new problems as older employees lose their jobs although will also reduce pressure on the labour market and lessen labour shortages in retailing.</p>

By 2019, many retailers and brands were already introducing new technology solutions to make up for labour shortages. Despite the crisis, shortages continue to be a major headache in the service sector and the downturn in trading since March has only accelerated efforts to replace staff with tech.This could create new problems as older employees lose their jobs although will also reduce pressure on the labour market and lessen labour shortages in retailing.

Surge in Calls for Retail Voluntary Redundancies Likely to Continue

<p>Japan’s big apparel firms have suffered even more than the apparel sector overall and as reported before will have closed over 3,000 stores by the end of this year.</p><p>World, which leads the sector, plans to go even further than previously expected, with a major overhaul of its business while others are seeking new solutions, such as showrooming stores, to stem losses from piling inventory.</p>

Japan’s big apparel firms have suffered even more than the apparel sector overall and as reported before will have closed over 3,000 stores by the end of this year.World, which leads the sector, plans to go even further than previously expected, with a major overhaul of its business while others are seeking new solutions, such as showrooming stores, to stem losses from piling inventory.

World Resets as Losses Mount for Apparel Firms

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/144/055/original/2020-07-03_06-20-43.png?1593724862" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="144055"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>SCRAMBLED EGGS</strong> - The was not so much 'love around the kitchen table' for Japan's beloved Kewpie (QP) mayonnaise recently. Second-quarter revenues fell by 8%, and operating income was 39% lower. Full-year net income was revised down by 48% relative to TTM, suggesting a grim second half.  If realised, this level of bottom-line profits would be the worst since 2008. More commentary on yesterday's announcements follows in the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below.</p><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>10 Quarterly Results</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 4 Positive / 0 Neutral / 6 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong>-2.6</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -13.0% Quarter YoY / -1.5% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.2ppt</li>
</ul>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>5 Annual • 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 2 Positive / 0 Neutral / 3 Negative</li>
<li>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 2 Positive / 0 Neutral / 1 Negative</li>
<li>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -2.6</li>
</ul></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsSCRAMBLED EGGS - The was not so much 'love around the kitchen table' for Japan's beloved Kewpie (QP) mayonnaise recently. Second-quarter revenues fell by 8%, and operating income was 39% lower. Full-year net income was revised down by 48% relative to TTM, suggesting a grim second half.  If realised, this level of bottom-line profits would be the worst since 2008. More commentary on yesterday's announcements follows in the DETAIL section below.DAILY STATS
10 Quarterly Results


Results Score: 4 Positive / 0 Neutral / 6 Negative

Average Results Score Change:-2.6

Average % Change in Revenue: -13.0% Quarter YoY / -1.5% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.2ppt

 5 Annual • 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 2 Positive / 0 Neutral / 3 Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 2 Positive / 0 Neutral / 1 Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -2.6


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 2nd July • Scrambled Eggs

Japan

TSI Holdings Company Ltd. manufactures men's and women's clothing, and retails women's clothing.  The Company produces and sells coats, dresses, suits, sweaters, shirts, skirts, and pants.

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Tsi Holdings (3608 JP)

Big Apparel in Trouble: Onward Aims for 30% of Sales from Non-Apparel Brands

Onward Holding, like its peers, is being forced to restructure further and faster than planned three years ago when competition in the apparel...

Michael Causton

Big Apparel in Trouble: TSI Wins on E-Commerce but Closes More Brands

TSI Holdings is one of Japan's larger apparel groups and like its peers is trying to reinvent itself to cope with a post-Covid world where people...

Michael Causton

Surge in Calls for Retail Voluntary Redundancies Likely to Continue

Japan's retail industry has been hit by labour shortages in the last 5 years but layoffs in the industry in the last year could end that, at least...

Michael Causton

World Resets as Losses Mount for Apparel Firms

World and the other major apparel groups are shrinking fast during the current crisis but their decline has been a long time coming and will...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 2nd July • Scrambled Eggs

SCRAMBLED EGGS - The was not so much 'love around the kitchen table' for Japan's beloved Kewpie (QP) mayonnaise recently. Second-quarter revenues...

Campbell Gunn

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