Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Triumph Group's first quarter fiscal year 2025 results offer a multifaceted view of the company's current strategic and financial positioning.</li><li>On the one hand, Triumph showcased several positive developments, such as year over-year sales growth led by strong aftermarket demand and successful debt reduction efforts.</li><li>Additionally, the company received credit rating upgrades from major agencies, Moody's and S&P, signaling an improved financial outlook to investors and stakeholders.</li></ul>

Triumph Group's first quarter fiscal year 2025 results offer a multifaceted view of the company's current strategic and financial positioning.On the one hand, Triumph showcased several positive developments, such as year over-year sales growth led by strong aftermarket demand and successful debt reduction efforts.Additionally, the company received credit rating upgrades from major agencies, Moody's and S&P, signaling an improved financial outlook to investors and stakeholders.

Triumph Group in Play for Potential Buyout – What's Driving the Interest?

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Sprouts Farmers Market / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Sales declines, margin compression, cuts in SG&amp;A and cuts in guidance and estimates feature in our Declining Businesses model. </li>
<li>Declining business shorts tend to be lower beta, have longer time horizons, and tend to produce steadier (although slower) short returns. </li>
<li>Today we are flagging Weight Watchers, Triumph Grp, Sprouts, Ormat Tech .</li>
</ul>


Sales declines, margin compression, cuts in SG&amp;A and cuts in guidance and estimates feature in our Declining Businesses model. 
Declining business shorts tend to be lower beta, have longer time horizons, and tend to produce steadier (although slower) short returns. 
Today we are flagging Weight Watchers, Triumph Grp, Sprouts, Ormat Tech .


Declining Business Short Candidates: Weight Watchers, Triumph Grp, Sprouts, Ormat Tech

US/Europe Event-Driven Analyst

John DeMasi

Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kaman-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17189:1" rel="noopener">Kaman Corp (KAMN US)</a> is a company with two distinct business segments, Aerospace and Industrial Distribution. Distribution is a leading distributor with 6 million SKUs serving 55,000 active customers in a broad range of industrial markets. Aerospace produces aircraft bearings and components, aerostructures for commercial and military fixed and rotary wing aircraft, arming solutions for missile and bomb systems and engineered products used in medical, industrial and aerospace markets.</p><p>On June 26, 2019, Kaman announced an agreement to sell its Distribution segment to private equity firm Littlejohn &amp; Co. for $700 million cash as the culmination of a strategic review undertaken by the board of directors. Net proceeds of about $600 million will be used to pay down $100 million of the Company’s $308 million in debt, accelerate internal development efforts and pursue strategic acquisitions in engineered products market.</p><p>Below I look at the business and valuation of the new, focused Aerospace pure-play company Kaman will become.</p>

Kaman Corp (KAMN US) is a company with two distinct business segments, Aerospace and Industrial Distribution. Distribution is a leading distributor with 6 million SKUs serving 55,000 active customers in a broad range of industrial markets. Aerospace produces aircraft bearings and components, aerostructures for commercial and military fixed and rotary wing aircraft, arming solutions for missile and bomb systems and engineered products used in medical, industrial and aerospace markets.On June 26, 2019, Kaman announced an agreement to sell its Distribution segment to private equity firm Littlejohn &amp; Co. for $700 million cash as the culmination of a strategic review undertaken by the board of directors. Net proceeds of about $600 million will be used to pay down $100 million of the Company’s $308 million in debt, accelerate internal development efforts and pursue strategic acquisitions in engineered products market.Below I look at the business and valuation of the new, focused Aerospace pure-play company Kaman will become.

Kaman Corporation – Morphing into an Aerospace Pure-Play

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>As we write this, the tweet from President Trump regarding an imminent spike in tariffs on Chinese goods has caught financial markets around the world off guard. We believe the reactions are likely just a flash in the pan. This tweet, like many others, should be taken as nothing more than negotiation tactics lifted right out of a chapter from “The Art of the Deal”. We have been subjected to untold Tweets in the last few years and the reactions generally seem to have been about as long-lived as their character count. Despite the noise, the markets remain on a firm footing.  In our Macro Vision publication, we lay out our U.S. equity investment thesis and provide a technical appraisal of the market Sector by Sector, along with attractive investment opportunities within each.</p>

As we write this, the tweet from President Trump regarding an imminent spike in tariffs on Chinese goods has caught financial markets around the world off guard. We believe the reactions are likely just a flash in the pan. This tweet, like many others, should be taken as nothing more than negotiation tactics lifted right out of a chapter from “The Art of the Deal”. We have been subjected to untold Tweets in the last few years and the reactions generally seem to have been about as long-lived as their character count. Despite the noise, the markets remain on a firm footing.  In our Macro Vision publication, we lay out our U.S. equity investment thesis and provide a technical appraisal of the market Sector by Sector, along with attractive investment opportunities within each.

U.S. Equity Strategy: The Tweet Heard ‘Round the World

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

<h2>Headlines</h2><ul>
<li>Marginal current value decline from 2015 to reach JPY3,416.8 billion in 2016</li>
<li>Women's office clothing benefits from growing number of women in the workforce</li>
<li>Women’s suits see fastest current value growth of 3% in 2016</li>
<li>Fast Retailing extends lead by half a percentage point from 2015 to reach almost 13% of value in 2016</li>
<li>8% value decline at constant 2016 prices expected for overall forecast period with sales dropping to JPY3,158.9 billion in 2021</li>
</ul><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/021/796/original/market%20size%20womenswear%202011-2016.png?1488431244" data-smartkarma-image-id="21796"></figure><h2>Competitive Landscape</h2><ul><li>Fast Retailing remained…</li></ul>

Headlines
Marginal current value decline from 2015 to reach JPY3,416.8 billion in 2016
Women's office clothing benefits from growing number of women in the workforce
Women’s suits see fastest current value growth of 3% in 2016
Fast Retailing extends lead by half a percentage point from 2015 to reach almost 13% of value in 2016
8% value decline at constant 2016 prices expected for overall forecast period with sales dropping to JPY3,158.9 billion in 2021
Competitive LandscapeFast Retailing remained…

United States

Triumph Group, Inc. designs, engineers, manufactures, repairs, overhauls, and distributes aircraft components, including mechanical and electromechanical control systems, aircraft and engine accessories, auxiliary power units, avionics, and aircraft instruments. The Company serves commercial airlines, air cargo carriers, and various original equipment manufacturers.

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Triumph Group (TGI US)

Triumph Group in Play for Potential Buyout – What's Driving the Interest?

Triumph Group's first quarter fiscal year 2025 results offer a multifaceted view of the company's current strategic and financial positioning. On...

Baptista Research

Declining Business Short Candidates: Weight Watchers, Triumph Grp, Sprouts, Ormat Tech

Declining business shorts pursue profit riding negative business momentum. Today we are flagging Weight Watchers, Triumph Grp, Sprouts, Ormat Tech.

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Kaman Corporation – Morphing into an Aerospace Pure-Play

Kaman Corp (KAMN US) is a company with two distinct business segments, Aerospace and Industrial Distribution. Distribution is a leading distributor...

John DeMasi

U.S. Equity Strategy: The Tweet Heard ‘Round the World

As we write this, the tweet from President Trump regarding an imminent spike in tariffs on Chinese goods has caught financial markets around the...

Vermilion Research

Sector Capsule: Womenswear in Japan

Headlines Marginal current value decline from 2015 to reach JPY3,416.8 billion in 2016 Women's office clothing benefits from growing number of...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

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